China’s Quiet Game in the US–Iran War
Aqsa Sajid
Islamabad: As the US–Iran conflict enters its 56th day, a quieter but equally consequential actor has begun to shape the trajectory of events: China. While missiles, naval blockades, and airstrikes dominate headlines, Beijing’s calibrated moves suggest a deeper strategic play, one that blends economic necessity, geopolitical caution, and long-term rivalry with Washington.
The war—sparked by “Operation Epic Fury” on February 28—was initially framed as a targeted campaign to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities.
Yet, like many limited wars, it has spiraled into something far broader: an economic and energy shock reverberating across continents. At the heart of this disruption lies the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, through which roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil passes.
Iran’s decision to close the strait, followed by a partial reopening and renewed restrictions amid a US naval blockade, has effectively turned the waterway into a contested corridor. The consequences have been immediate.
Oil prices in Asia have surged dramatically, exposing the vulnerability of energy-dependent economies, especially China, which relies heavily on Gulf oil flows.
For Beijing, this is not just a regional crisis; it is a strategic stress test. Nearly 40 per cent of China’s seaborne oil imports transit through Hormuz, making any prolonged disruption a direct threat to its economic stability.
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Early indicators already point to strain: rising import costs and slowing export growth. China’s response, drawing on its vast strategic reserves and exploring alternative routes, including Gwadar and border crossings like Gabd-Rimdan, reveals both resilience and urgency.
But China’s role extends beyond economic firefighting. Diplomatically, it has positioned itself as a stabilizing force.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi has sharply criticized unilateral military actions lacking United Nations Security Council approval, framing them as threats to global order. Meanwhile, spokesperson Mao Ning has openly blamed the US and its allies for escalating tensions in the Gulf.
At the highest level, President Xi Jinping has engaged regional stakeholders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, calling for an immediate ceasefire to restore stability and secure energy flows. These interventions signal China’s preference for de-escalation—not out of altruism, but necessity.
Yet Beijing’s most intriguing role may be behind the scenes. It is increasingly seen as a quiet facilitator in bringing Iran to the negotiating table, including talks reportedly linked to Pakistan.
By offering communication infrastructure and coordinating diplomatically with Islamabad, China is reinforcing its image as a responsible stakeholder while protecting its strategic interests.
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This dual-track approach—public neutrality paired with discreet engagement—reflects China’s broader geopolitical calculus.
It seeks to avoid direct confrontation with the United States while ensuring that its supply chains and regional partnerships remain intact. In doing so, China is neither siding fully with Iran nor aligning with Washington, but rather carving out a third space of influence.
The crisis also fits into a larger theoretical frame often described as the “Thucydides Trap”—the tension between a rising power and an established one. While the US appears focused on immediate military objectives, its broader strategic pivot toward containing China, articulated in recent policy frameworks, cannot be ignored.
The Middle East, in this sense, becomes another arena where this rivalry plays out indirectly.
China’s restraint is particularly notable given its deep energy ties with Iran. Despite being a major importer of Iranian oil, Beijing has avoided overt commitments that could trigger secondary sanctions or escalate tensions with the West. Instead, it continues to emphasize ceasefire, dialogue, and stability.
The question, then, is not whether China is involved, but how. Its “quiet power play” lies in shaping outcomes without overt escalation, leveraging diplomacy, economic tools, and strategic patience.
In a conflict defined by noise and confrontation, China’s low-profile maneuvering may ultimately prove just as decisive.
Aqsa Sajid is an MPhil scholar in Defence and Strategic Studies at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, with experience at ISPR and leadership as Campus Director for the Millennium Fellowship 2024.
The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.
