How Secure Is Pakistan’s Wheat Without Stable River Water?
Fakhar-e-Alam
Peshawa: At sunrise in a quiet village of Dera Ismail Khan, 49-year-old farmer Adnan Khan starts his motorbike and heads toward his wheat fields.
What was once a routine inspection of soil and crops has, in recent times, turned into a moment of anxiety shaped by growing uncertainty over water flows linked to the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).
The earth is still moist from recent rainfall—usually a reassuring sign ahead of harvest—but for Adnan, the sight now carries a different meaning. Walking through his fields in Paharpur with a sickle slung over his shoulder, he studies the soil not only for moisture but for stability.
Like hundreds of thousands of farmers across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, his livelihood depends on the Indus River system. And increasingly, he says, that lifeline feels uncertain.
“We live by this water,” he says quietly. “If it stops, everything stops.”
For generations, farmers in southern KP have relied on the Indus River, locally referred to as the Sindh, to irrigate wheat, maize, rice, vegetables, orchards, and other crops. Under the Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, Pakistan was granted rights over the western rivers: the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
The agreement has long been cited as a rare example of sustained cooperation between Pakistan and India following its signing by President Ayub Khan and Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.
However, farmers like Adnan now believe that confidence in the system is weakening, citing concerns over what they describe as disruptions and uncertainty in water flows in recent years.
“If water in the river drops, our wheat drops,” he explains. “And when wheat drops, hunger rises, affecting children and mothers most of all.”
Agricultural experts say the stakes are already high. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa produces around 1.2 to 1.5 million tons of wheat annually, while its consumption needs approach nearly 5 million tons. This significant gap forces reliance on supplies from other provinces, particularly Punjab, often described as Pakistan’s breadbasket.
Professor Dr. Naeemur Rehman Khattak of the University of Peshawar warns that any sustained water shortage could further widen this imbalance.
“A production gap of nearly 70 percent already exists,” he notes. “Any disruption in river flows could intensify food insecurity in the country.”
He adds that farmers are already under pressure from climate change, limited access to quality seeds, and fragmented landholdings, with water uncertainty adding another critical layer of vulnerability.
The impact of water stress is not limited to wheat. Experts say reduced flows could also affect livestock, orchards, fisheries, and honey production, creating ripple effects across rural livelihoods.
Read More: https://thepenpk.com/kps-strawberry-farmers-battle-climate-and-water-fears/
Dr. Ejaz Khan, an international relations expert, describes water as central to survival and stability. “Water is not just a resource—it is life itself,” he says, warning that disruptions could affect both food security and energy systems that depend on river-fed dams such as Tarbela and Mangla.
Legal experts maintain that the Indus Waters Treaty does not allow unilateral suspension and remains binding under international law, with the Permanent Court of Arbitration previously affirming its validity. Any modification, they note, requires mutual consent.
They also urge international institutions, including the World Bank, to play a role in ensuring compliance and maintaining the treaty’s framework.
But for farmers like Adnan, such legal and diplomatic discussions feel far removed from daily reality. Standing at the edge of his field, he lets a handful of soil slip through his fingers.
“This land feeds us,” he says. “But it needs water to live.”
The Indus Basin supports nearly 300 million people across the region. Any disruption, experts warn, would not only affect crops but also livelihoods, stability, and long-term regional peace.
As the wheat harvest approaches in Dera Ismail Khan, Adnan continues his routine—watching the skies, checking the fields, and hoping the rivers continue to flow steadily for the seasons ahead.
Because for him, and millions like him, water is not a political issue—it is survival. The feature report was released by APP.
