Pakistan’s Ice Reserves at Risk, Experts warn

News Desk

Islamabad: As climate change accelerates glacial melt across Pakistan’s northern mountains, experts are calling for urgent, coordinated action to strengthen monitoring systems, improve policy implementation and scale up community-based adaptation to avert looming environmental and water crises.

These concerns took center stage at a consultation on the “Glacier Adaptation Plan for Gilgit-Baltistan,” organized by Sustainable Development Policy Institute, where policymakers, researchers and civil society representatives warned that the country’s glaciers—often described as its “water towers”—are rapidly shrinking under the combined pressures of rising temperatures and human activity.

A Region Under Threat

Pakistan is home to more than 13,000 glaciers spanning roughly 15,000 square kilometres, making it one of the most glacier-rich countries outside the polar regions. Yet this natural asset is increasingly under threat.

According to experts, the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) region—often referred to as the “Third Pole” due to its vast ice reserves—is witnessing accelerated glacial retreat. Projections suggest glacier mass could decline by 22–44 percent under low-emission scenarios and up to 57 percent under high-emission pathways by the end of the century.

“Extreme climatic events have intensified since 2022, speeding up glacier loss in high-mountain regions,” said Zainab Naeem, highlighting the urgent need for policy-backed, locally driven adaptation strategies.

Rising Disaster Risks

The consequences of glacial melt are already being felt. Zakir Hussain noted that Gilgit-Baltistan faces increasing threats from flash floods, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslides.

Efforts to mitigate these risks include awareness campaigns, simulation exercises, media engagement and exposure visits aimed at strengthening community preparedness.

Read More: https://thepenpk.com/glof-alert-issued-for-upper-kp-as-glacier-melt-risk-rises/

Structural measures such as retaining walls and slope stabilization through plantation are also underway to protect vulnerable farmland, livestock and settlements.

However, despite around 180 early warning installations, only 16 valleys are currently covered across the vast 72,000 square kilometre region—underscoring significant gaps in monitoring and preparedness.

Policy Challenges

Experts repeatedly pointed to the lack of comprehensive data and weak institutional coordination as key barriers to effective climate action.

Sabih Ud Din emphasized that data gaps have left Gilgit-Baltistan underrepresented in national risk assessments, calling for improved data-sharing mechanisms among institutions.

Similarly, Quratulain Ahmed stressed the need for integrated glacier and snow monitoring systems and updated inventories to support evidence-based policymaking. She warned that glacier recession, declining per capita water availability and groundwater depletion pose serious long-term water security challenges for Pakistan.

The consultation also highlighted the importance of integrating indigenous knowledge into scientific frameworks. Khadim Hussain advocated recognizing glacier-dependent communities as key stakeholders in adaptation planning.

He suggested Pakistan could draw lessons from countries like Tajikistan, where glacier protection laws restrict harmful activities in sensitive zones, and called for declaring glaciers as protected areas.

The Carbon Footprint

While tourism remains a vital economic activity in northern Pakistan, experts warned of its environmental cost. Aisha Khan raised concerns about hydrocarbon emissions linked to expedition tourism, particularly in fragile ecosystems near K2.

She called for promoting responsible, low-carbon tourism and enhancing regional cooperation across the HKH region to reduce environmental impact.

Climate-Smart Solutions

Speakers also emphasized the need to rethink development approaches. Climate-smart agriculture—such as soil testing, tunnel farming and greenhouse cultivation—was highlighted as essential for strengthening food security in vulnerable regions.

Muhammad Fawad Hayat advocated a shift toward nature-based solutions for sustainable water management, while Dr Davide Fugazza underscored the importance of automatic weather stations in improving glacier monitoring and enabling evidence-based planning.

Meanwhile, Sher Muhammad revealed that the Indus Basin contains nearly 26,000 square kilometres of glacier area and over 3,000 glacial lakes—more than 30 of which are potentially dangerous. Alarmingly, glacier melt rates increased by about 65 percent between 2010 and 2019.

Financing the Future

A major hurdle in scaling up adaptation efforts remains financing. Fahim Ahmed pointed to available global funding avenues, including the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility, which could support initiatives such as early warning systems, green infrastructure and ecosystem-based adaptation.

Toward a Glacial Emergency?

Some experts went further, urging the government to formally declare a “glacial emergency” in vulnerable northern areas. Talha Bhatti proposed designating 4,000 to 5,000 square kilometres of high-risk glacier zones for urgent intervention, particularly in elevations between 4,500 and 5,500 metres where melt activity is most intense.

At the community level, progress is visible. Ejaz Karim noted that hazard vulnerability maps have been developed in over 800 villages, with trained community watchers playing a critical role in ensuring timely evacuations during disasters.

What’s The Way Forward

The consultation concluded with a clear message: Pakistan’s glaciers are not just environmental assets—they are lifelines for millions. Without immediate and sustained action to monitor, protect and adapt, the accelerating melt could trigger cascading impacts on water security, agriculture and disaster risk across the country.

As climate pressures intensify, experts stressed that the window for action is narrowing—making it imperative for policymakers to translate plans into tangible, timely interventions.

Rain, Strong Winds Bring Relief to Multan

A spell of rain accompanied by strong winds swept through Multan and its surrounding areas, bringing a noticeable shift in weather conditions and offering relief from the recent heatwave.

The rainfall turned the weather pleasant, with cool breezes and overcast skies welcomed by residents after days of rising temperatures.

However, the sudden change in weather has raised concerns among farmers, as wheat harvesting activities have been disrupted across various parts of the region. The unexpected downpour has slowed the harvesting process, sparking fears of potential crop losses.

Agricultural experts have urged farmers to take precautionary measures to safeguard their produce and resume harvesting operations once weather conditions improve.