How Dangerous Can El Nino Become This Year?
News Desk
As the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins and runs through November 30, meteorologists are closely monitoring a climate phenomenon that could significantly alter storm activity across the globe: El Nino.
Forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expect a quieter-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season this year, largely because of El Nino’s influence on global weather systems.
According to NOAA, there is a 55 percent chance of below-normal Atlantic storm activity, a 35 percent chance of near-normal activity and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.
Storm activity typically peaks in mid-September, when warm ocean waters and atmospheric conditions fuel tropical systems that threaten the Caribbean and the eastern and Gulf coasts of the United States.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is one phase of a broader climate cycle known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which also includes the cool phase known as La Nina and a neutral phase.
Under normal conditions, steady trade winds push warm ocean water westward across the Pacific toward Asia, while cooler water rises near the coast of the Americas. During El Nino, these trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to spread eastward toward the Americas.
The resulting changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation disrupt global weather patterns, often intensifying floods, droughts, heatwaves and tropical storm activity in different parts of the world.
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El Nino events generally occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and 12 months, although some episodes can persist longer.
How Tropical Storms Form
Tropical storms develop over warm ocean waters near the equator. As warm, moist air rises from the ocean surface, it creates an area of low pressure beneath it. Cooler air then moves in, warms and rises as well, continuing the cycle.
As the system gains strength, winds begin rotating rapidly around a calm, low-pressure centre known as the “eye” of the storm. Once sustained wind speeds reach 63 kilometres per hour (39 miles per hour), the system is classified as a tropical storm. At 119km/h (74mph), it becomes a hurricane, cyclone or typhoon, depending on where it forms.
Though the names differ by region, hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons are essentially the same type of storm system.
- Hurricanes occur in the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific.
- Cyclones develop in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
- Typhoons form in the northwestern Pacific Ocean.
El Nino’s Global Impact on Storm Activity
Atlantic Ocean
El Nino typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin by increasing wind shear — strong changes in wind speed and direction, which disrupts storm formation.
Historically, El Nino has reduced hurricane days in the Atlantic by nearly 60 percent and weakened overall storm intensity. An average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Despite the forecast for reduced activity, NOAA officials caution against complacency.
“Although El Nino’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said.
“It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season,” he warned.
Atlantic hurricanes remain among the deadliest and most expensive natural disasters globally. In the United States alone, hurricanes caused more than 7,200 deaths and approximately $1.55 trillion in economic losses between 1980 and 2024. Some of the most destructive storms include Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Maria in 2017 and Helene in 2024.
Northeast Pacific and Hawaii
El Nino generally increases tropical storm activity near Hawaii and the Northeast Pacific. In the year following an El Nino event, storms are also more likely to drift into the region.
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Australia and the South Pacific
Australia usually experiences fewer tropical cyclones during El Nino years. However, storm activity does not disappear entirely. Instead, the primary storm formation zone shifts eastward into the South Pacific near the international dateline.
These shifts are driven by changing ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions associated with ENSO cycles.
Asia and the Northwestern Pacific
The northwestern Pacific sees a similar eastward shift in typhoon formation during El Nino. While the total number of typhoons may remain relatively stable, fewer storms develop close to Asia, and more form farther east over the Pacific Ocean.
This can alter storm tracks and affect countries such as the Philippines and Japan differently from year to year.
Scientists have observed little significant change in tropical storm numbers across the southwestern and northern Indian Oceans during El Nino events.
Why Storm Names Matter
The naming of tropical storms began as a way to improve communication and public safety. Early storms were named arbitrarily, but by the mid-20th century meteorologists adopted organised alphabetical naming systems.
Today, the World Meteorological Organization manages rotating lists of storm names for different ocean basins. Atlantic hurricane names alternate between male and female names and rotate every six years unless a storm is so deadly or destructive that its name is permanently retired.
Names such as Katrina, Sandy, Irma and Maria have all been retired because of the devastation associated with those storms.
Other regions follow similar naming systems tailored to local languages and cultures, helping residents better recognise and respond to storm warnings.
As climate patterns continue to influence weather extremes worldwide, scientists say understanding phenomena such as El Nino is becoming increasingly important for disaster preparedness and long-term climate resilience. The report is published on Al Jazeera website.
