Is China About to Overtake the US in the Race to the Moon?

News Desk/AFP

Beijing: A new chapter in the global space race is unfolding as China accelerates its ambitious lunar programme, positioning itself as a serious challenger to United States leadership in human spaceflight.

With NASA preparing for its upcoming Artemis II crewed flyby, Beijing is quietly advancing a long-term, state-backed strategy that could see its astronauts walking on the Moon by 2030—and building a permanent presence soon after.

A Steady, State-Driven Rise

China’s human spaceflight ambitions date back to 1992, when it launched its crewed programme, Project 921. Since then, it has carried out around 15 crewed missions, beginning with astronaut Yang Liwei in 2003.

After being excluded from the International Space Station in 2011, China took a different path, building its own orbital outpost. The Tiangong space station became operational in 2021 and now hosts rotating crews of three astronauts, or “taikonauts.”

This independent approach has allowed China to gain critical experience in spacewalks, docking, and long-term human survival in orbit, all without major accidents in its crewed missions so far.

Experts say Beijing’s advantage lies in consistency. Unlike the US system, where priorities can shift with political cycles, China’s programme benefits from long-term planning, centralized control, and stable funding.

The Road to the Moon

China’s next major milestone is a crewed Moon landing by 2030. To achieve this, it is developing a new generation of space hardware.

The Mengzhou spacecraft is expected to make its first test flight in 2026, replacing the current Shenzhou. It will carry astronauts into lunar orbit.

Meanwhile, engineers are working on the powerful Long March 10 rocket, designed to send missions beyond Earth’s orbit. A lunar lander, Lanyue, is also in development, with test missions expected before the end of the decade.

China has already demonstrated its robotic capabilities through its Chang’e program, which has successfully returned lunar samples—laying the groundwork for human exploration.

Building a Base on the Moon

Beyond landing astronauts, China is aiming to establish a permanent foothold on the Moon. Together with Russia, it plans to build the International Lunar Research Station near the Moon’s south pole by 2035.

This location is considered crucial due to the presence of water ice, a key resource for future missions.

The base could be constructed using 3D-printed bricks made from lunar soil—technology that will be tested during the Chang’e 8 mission around 2028. An expanded version of the base is envisioned by 2040.

China is also planning a network of satellites around the Moon to improve communication, particularly with its far side—an area of growing scientific and strategic interest.

Competition Without Calling It a Race

Chinese officials avoid framing their ambitions as a direct competition with the United States. However, analysts say the overlap in timelines and goals tells a different story.

“There’s only a limited amount of viable territory near the lunar south pole,” experts note—meaning whichever country establishes a presence first could gain a long-term strategic advantage.

While the US still leads in crewed spaceflight technology—with advanced spacecraft like Orion and commercial systems, China is rapidly closing the gap.

Mars on the Horizon

Looking further ahead, China sees the Moon as a stepping stone to Mars. Officials say the planned lunar base will serve as a testing ground for technologies needed for future human missions to the Red Planet.

However, experts believe Beijing will prioritize completing its Moon ambitions before committing fully to Mars exploration.

A Defining Decade Ahead

As both nations push forward, the coming decade could redefine the balance of power in space. Whether labeled a “race” or not, the parallel ambitions of China and the United States are setting the stage for a new era of exploration, one that could extend from the Moon to Mars and beyond.