GB Poll: What is ‘Numbers Game’ Required for Govt Formation?
News Desk
Gilgit: Following the general elections in Gilgit-Baltistan, attention has shifted from polling to government formation as unofficial and incomplete results continue to emerge from constituencies across the region.
While vote counting remains underway, political parties have already begun assessing possible alliances and seat calculations.
The final shape of the next government will become clear only after official results are announced, raising an important question: can independent candidates become the decisive “kingmakers” in the formation of the next administration?
Polling for the 24 general seats of the Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly concluded peacefully on Sunday, after which the counting process began.
Early unofficial results indicate a competitive contest among candidates backed by the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
One of the most notable features of this election is the participation of 266 independent candidates. Political analysts believe their role could prove crucial if no single party secures a clear majority, potentially making independents key players in coalition negotiations.
Understanding Govt Formation Formula
Before determining who will form the next government, it is important to understand the composition of the Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly and the mechanism through which a government is formed.
Read More: https://thepenpk.com/ppp-takes-early-lead-in-gilgit-baltistan-polls-wins-9-seats/
The Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly consists of 33 seats in total. Of these, 24 are general seats filled through direct elections. Voters cast their ballots for these seats on June 7, and the counting process is currently underway.
In addition to the general seats, six seats are reserved for women and three seats for technocrats. These nine reserved seats are allocated to political parties in proportion to the number of general seats they win.
The government formation process takes place in two stages.
In the first stage, candidates elected on the 24 general seats become members of the assembly. In the second stage, the reserved seats for women and technocrats are distributed among political parties according to their performance on the general seats.
As a result, parties winning more general seats are entitled to a larger share of reserved seats.
Majority Requirement
A party or alliance requires the support of at least 17 members in the 33-member assembly to form a government.
Under the seat distribution formula, the results of the 24 general seats play a decisive role. Political observers note that a party winning 13 of the 24 general seats is likely to secure an overall majority after the allocation of reserved seats.
However, if no party achieves a clear majority, coalition-building will become necessary. In such a scenario, alliances between political parties and support from independent candidates could determine who forms the government.
Once a majority is established, the elected members of the assembly choose the Leader of the House, who becomes the Chief Minister and subsequently forms the cabinet.
Read More: https://thepenpk.com/gb-elections-2026-who-is-winning-where/
Independent Candidates Could Hold the Balance of Power
Given the large number of independents contesting the elections, analysts believe their support could become critical if the assembly is divided among major parties.
Should no party reach the majority threshold on its own, independent lawmakers may find themselves in a pivotal position during coalition talks, potentially influencing the formation of the next government.
Political History of GB
The current elections are the fourth general elections held in Gilgit-Baltistan since the region was granted a provincial-style governance structure under the Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance Order introduced by the federal government in 2009.
Since then, the region has been governed by the PPP, PML-N and PTI at different times.
PPP leader Syed Mehdi Shah became Gilgit-Baltistan’s first elected chief minister after the 2009 elections. In 2015, PML-N’s Hafiz Hafeez-ur-Rehman assumed office as the second chief minister. Both leaders completed their respective five-year terms.
In 2020, PTI’s Khalid Khurshid Khan became the third chief minister. However, he was disqualified in 2023 in a fake degree case and subsequently stepped down from office.
Following his disqualification, PTI Forward Bloc leader Haji Gulbar Khan formed a coalition government with the PPP and PML-N and served as chief minister until November 2025.
After the dissolution of the assembly in 2025, Justice (retd) Yar Muhammad Khan was appointed caretaker chief minister.
The fourth general elections of Gilgit-Baltistan were conducted under his supervision on June 7, 2026.
With counting still in progress and several results yet to be finalized, political parties and independent candidates are closely watching developments that will ultimately determine the composition of the next Gilgit-Baltistan government.
