How Global Tensions Are Driving Pakistan Into an Energy Storm
News Desk
Islamabad: As tensions ripple across the Middle East, a single vessel cutting through the narrow waters of the Strait of Hormuz has become more than just a routine shipment, it is a symbol of Pakistan’s fragile energy security.
The Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) vessel Khairpur, carrying 58,000 metric tons of petrol, has successfully crossed the strategically volatile passage despite what sources describe as a continuing US pressure campaign in the region.
Departing from Kuwait, the ship is expected to reach Pakistan within days, marking the second such journey since tensions escalated.
But behind this routine maritime movement lies a much larger story, one of rising global oil prices, geopolitical brinkmanship, and a deepening economic squeeze at home.
A Global Shock, Felt Locally
The crisis unfolding in the Gulf has sent shockwaves through international energy markets. Benchmark crude prices have surged, with US oil climbing above $105 per barrel and Brent crude nearing $117.
Analysts warn that if tensions intensify, particularly involving Iran, prices could spike further, potentially hitting $140 per barrel.
The stakes are enormous. The Strait of Hormuz alone carries nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Any disruption, real or perceived, immediately tightens global supply lines.
At the center of these tensions is the administration of Donald Trump, which has reportedly explored strategies ranging from diplomatic pressure to extend blockades aimed at curbing Iran’s oil exports.
While US officials maintain that diplomacy remains a priority, contingency planning for prolonged disruption is well underway.
Pakistan’s Mounting Oil Burden
For Pakistan, the consequences are already biting. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently acknowledged the severity of the situation, revealing that the country’s weekly oil import bill has surged from $300 million to a staggering $800 million in the wake of rising prices.
This surge is now translating directly into domestic fuel costs.
Despite a slight reduction in jet fuel and kerosene prices, the government has significantly raised petrol and diesel rates.
Petrol now stands at Rs 399.86 per liter, while high-speed diesel has climbed to Rs 399.58. Light diesel has also seen a sharp increase.
At the same time, fiscal pressures are forcing difficult policy choices. The government has imposed a new petroleum levy of Rs 28.69 per liter on diesel, while slightly reducing the already heavy levy on petrol.
Behind these adjustments lies a familiar constraint: ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which continues to push for subsidy reductions and revenue generation.
A Policy Balancing Act
Energy policy in Pakistan is now walking a tightrope.
On one hand, the government is attempting to cushion consumers by selectively lowering prices of fuels like kerosene, critical for lower-income households. On the other, it is being compelled to increase levies and pass on global price shocks to maintain fiscal discipline.
Federal Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik has hinted that further increases in petroleum levy, possibly up to Rs 50 or Rs 55 per liter, remain on the table if talks with the IMF do not yield relief.
The Strategic Vulnerability
The journey of the Khairpur underscores a harsh reality, highlighting that Pakistan remains heavily dependent on imported fuel, and its economic stability is deeply tied to geopolitical currents far beyond its control.
Each tanker navigating the Strait of Hormuz carries not just fuel, but risk.
Any prolonged disruption in the region could trigger supply shortages, inflation spikes, and further strain on foreign reserves. In such a scenario, even routine shipments could become high-stakes operations.
Beyond the Horizon
For now, the safe passage of the Khairpur offers temporary relief. But it does little to resolve the underlying vulnerabilities.
As global powers maneuver and oil markets react, Pakistan finds itself navigating not just rising prices, but an increasingly uncertain energy future.
The question is no longer whether the country can secure its next shipment.
It is whether it can withstand the storm that may follow.
