How Two Narrow Straits Could Squeeze Global Trade

News Desk 

Islamabad: As tensions escalate in the Gulf, attention is shifting from battlefields to bottlenecks, two narrow maritime corridors that quietly power the global economy.

The simultaneous disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab is no longer a distant risk but an increasingly discussed worst-case scenario, one that could choke energy flows and paralyze trade routes linking Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

At the center of the warning is Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who signaled that Iran’s allies could replicate in Bab al-Mandab what Tehran has effectively done in Hormuz. His message underscores a growing belief among Iranian officials that control over these chokepoints can reshape the trajectory of the conflict, and the global economy.

A Tale of Two Gateways

The Strait of Hormuz has long been the world’s most critical oil artery, carrying roughly 20% of global oil and gas supplies in normal times. Its disruption alone has already rattled markets.

But the Bab al-Mandab, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is equally vital. Sitting between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, it funnels energy exports and goods toward the Suez Canal and onward to Europe.

At just 29 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, the passage is inherently vulnerable. In recent years, it has effectively fallen under the shadow of the Iran-backed Houthi movement, whose ability to disrupt shipping has already been demonstrated.

The 25% Shock

If both chokepoints were simultaneously rendered inoperable, the consequences would be historic. Analysts estimate that up to a quarter of the world’s oil and gas supply could be disrupted, an energy shock far exceeding previous crises.

In 2024 alone, around 4.1 billion barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through Bab al-Mandab, about 5% of global supply. Combine that with Hormuz, and the scale of disruption multiplies dramatically.

But the impact goes far beyond oil.

Nearly 10% of global trade flows through the Red Sea corridor. Goods moving from China, India and other Asian economies toward Europe rely heavily on this route. A shutdown would force ships to detour around Africa, adding weeks of transit time and sharply increasing costs.

Weaponizing Geography

Iranian strategist Ali Akbar Velayati framed the situation bluntly: a single coordinated move could disrupt global energy and trade flows. His remarks, echoed by state media, reflect a broader doctrine—leveraging geography as strategic power.

That strategy may already be in motion. The Houthis have previously targeted vessels in the Red Sea, especially during the Gaza conflict, triggering insurance shocks and sharply reducing maritime traffic.

Former US diplomat Nabil Khoury warns that even limited attacks could have outsized effects. “Targeting just a few ships,” he argues, “could effectively shut down the entire Red Sea trade corridor.”

Recent missile and drone activity linked to the Houthis suggests they retain both capability and intent, raising fears that Bab al-Mandab could become an active front.

A Fragile Artery to Europe

For Europe, the stakes are especially high. According to Elizabeth Kendall of University of Cambridge, simultaneous disruption of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab would represent a “worst-case scenario.”

Trade flows could be severely restricted—if not effectively frozen—while energy prices surge globally. Industries would face supply shortages, consumers would absorb higher fuel costs, and inflationary pressures could intensify worldwide.

The Deterrence Factor

Despite the alarming scenario, a full closure of Bab al-Mandab remains uncertain. Kendall notes that the Houthis may hesitate, aware that such a move could provoke a powerful military response from Saudi Arabia or other international actors.

Still, the mere threat is enough to unsettle markets.

As the crisis deepens, the world is being reminded of a stark reality: global trade depends not just on production and demand, but on a handful of narrow strategic routes. And when those routes are threatened, the ripple effects are felt everywhere—from oil markets to supermarket shelves.