Climate Warning We Ignored

Dr Ikramullah 

Climate Warning We Ignored

Dr Ikramullah

PESHAWAR: There was a time when the people of Bajaur did not need a calendar to know which season had arrived. Cold winds and snowfall signalled winter, spring flowers announced warmer days, summer heat marked the middle of the year, and monsoon rains brought relief before autumn leaves signalled the return of colder weather.

Farmers planned their crops around these natural signs, livestock depended on seasonal supplies of water and fodder, and rural life followed a rhythm shaped by generations of experience.

More than a decade ago, a study conducted by the University of Agriculture Peshawar and Intercooperation Pakistan documented the environmental changes that farmers in Bajaur were already observing. Fieldwork carried out in 2015 in three union councils — Tauheed Abad, Inayat Kalay and Raghagan — recorded the experiences of farmers who had spent decades observing local weather and agricultural patterns.

The study is particularly significant today because many of the concerns it documented remain relevant. Shorter winters, longer summers, shifting rainfall patterns, prolonged dry spells and declining groundwater were not merely abstract environmental possibilities. They were already affecting how farmers understood and managed their land.

The findings raise a pressing question: have our development policies and natural-resource management practices kept pace with the environmental changes that local communities identified years ago?

According to the 2015 study, farmers reported that winters were becoming shorter, spring was shrinking, autumn was losing its traditional duration, and summers were becoming longer.

They recalled that winter had once lasted approximately 13 to 14 weeks but had shortened to around 10 to 12 weeks. Summer, traditionally lasting about 13 to 16 weeks, was reportedly extending to 26 to 27 weeks.

These figures reflect farmers’ observations recorded during the study rather than a continuous instrumental measurement of seasonal change. Nevertheless, they offer valuable insight into how environmental shifts were being experienced at the local level.

The significance of these observations extends beyond temperature. Agricultural activities depend heavily on seasonal timing. Changes in the duration of winter, the onset of spring or the arrival of summer heat can influence sowing schedules, crop selection, irrigation requirements and harvesting decisions.

For livestock owners, changing seasons can affect the availability of fodder and water. For rural households, they can alter both agricultural income and the cost of sustaining livelihoods.

Farmers also reported changes in rainfall. Winter rains were increasingly arriving late, summer rainfall was becoming more intense and concentrated, dry spells during spring and summer were lengthening, and autumn was becoming considerably drier.

These observations highlight an important distinction between rainfall and water security. A district may receive substantial rainfall during a year and still face water shortages if precipitation is concentrated into a few intense events.

When rain falls rapidly, much of it can run off the land, causing flash floods, soil erosion and damage to crops and infrastructure instead of gradually replenishing soil moisture, springs and groundwater.

Bajaur experienced a reminder of these risks in August 2025, when intense rainfall and flash floods affected several parts of the district. The wider monsoon season also brought destructive rainfall, flooding and landslides across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Such events underline the need to prepare for both ends of the climate challenge: prolonged dry periods and increasingly damaging rainfall.

Farmers’ observations are important, but they must be considered alongside scientific measurements to establish the nature, scale and causes of environmental change.

The 2015 study reported that farmers had observed increasing temperatures during autumn, winter and spring. Interestingly, some perceived parts of summer as relatively cooler, attributing this to increased greenery, tree plantation and irrigation.

Such perceptions illustrate the complexity of local climate experiences. Conditions can vary across locations, seasons and agricultural landscapes, and changes experienced by farmers in one area do not necessarily represent the entire district.

Long-term meteorological records are therefore essential.Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) maintains climate records and assessments that can help researchers examine temperature and rainfall trends over time.

Combining these records with local observations would provide a stronger basis for understanding how Bajaur’s climate is changing and which communities are most vulnerable.

The distinction matters because not every agricultural or environmental change is caused by climate change alone. Land use, farming practices, population pressures, market incentives and infrastructure development also influence local conditions.

Sound policy requires these factors to be examined together rather than attributing every problem to a single cause.

Yet uncertainty about the precise contribution of each factor should not become an excuse for delaying action. The concerns documented by Bajaur’s farmers provide a compelling reason to improve monitoring, update local assessments and strengthen preparedness.

Perhaps the most consequential finding of the 2015 study concerned groundwater.

The rapid expansion of tube wells had significantly improved irrigation-water availability. More land was brought under cultivation, fallow land declined and farmers gained opportunities to increase agricultural production.

For a largely rural economy, these developments offered important benefits. Access to irrigation can reduce dependence on rainfall and make farming more productive.

However, the study also identified a serious concern: the groundwater table was reportedly falling by around seven to ten metres. Researchers observed that groundwater extraction was exceeding natural recharge and warned that continued expansion of tube wells could create significant problems.

This was the warning hidden beneath the apparent success of agricultural expansion.

Groundwater can easily be mistaken for an unlimited resource because it remains invisible beneath the surface. In reality, its availability depends on the balance between extraction and replenishment. When water is pumped out faster than it is naturally restored, wells may become less reliable and pumping costs may rise.

The consequences are particularly serious for small farmers, who may lack the resources to deepen wells, install more powerful pumps or switch to less water-intensive production systems.

Bajaur therefore needs to move beyond the assumption that additional tube wells automatically represent agricultural progress. Expanding irrigation without monitoring groundwater availability risks creating a system in which short-term gains undermine long-term sustainability.

Regular groundwater monitoring should become a priority. Authorities need to identify areas where water levels are declining rapidly, establish reliable local records and use this information to guide decisions about irrigation and future agricultural expansion.

Rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge should also form part of a broader water-management strategy. Small dams, check dams, community ponds and recharge structures may help retain runoff and improve infiltration where local conditions make them suitable.

Such projects, however, should be designed on the basis of hydrological assessments and their likely environmental and social impacts. Infrastructure alone cannot solve the problem if groundwater extraction continues to exceed replenishment.

The objective must be to manage water as a finite resource rather than treating it as an unlimited input into agricultural production.

The changing water situation is reflected in the crops farmers choose to cultivate.

The 2015 study reported that rice cultivation had declined sharply in some areas as natural springs and surface-water sources diminished or dried up. Tube-well irrigation was considered too expensive for rice production in these circumstances.

Barley and lentil cultivation also declined significantly, partly because wheat and maize offered better economic returns.

These findings demonstrate that farmers respond to a combination of environmental conditions and financial incentives. Crop selection depends not only on rainfall and temperature but also on market prices, production costs, access to technology and expected profitability.

The study found that wheat and maize production had increased considerably. Farmers largely attributed higher yields to improved seeds, fertilisers, pesticides and mechanised farming rather than climate change itself.

This distinction is important. Climate adaptation policies will be effective only if they recognise the economic realities shaping farmers’ decisions.

There is also an opportunity within the changing climate. Farmers interviewed for the study reported that longer warm periods had enabled some of them to grow tomatoes three times a year. The first crop could be intercropped with standing wheat, followed by another after the wheat harvest and a third later in the year.

This demonstrates the ability of farmers to adjust their production systems and take advantage of changing conditions.

However, increased cropping intensity can also increase demand for irrigation water. An opportunity to grow more crops is not necessarily sustainable if the additional production depends on groundwater reserves that are already under pressure.

Climate-smart agriculture must therefore balance productivity with resource conservation. Farmers need access to suitable crop varieties, efficient irrigation techniques, reliable weather information and advice on changing sowing dates.

Agricultural extension services should help farmers evaluate both the economic benefits and the water requirements of different cropping options. Research institutions should also work with local communities to identify practices that maintain yields while reducing pressure on soil and water resources.

The study also highlighted the decline of traditional rainwater-harvesting practices.

In the past, communities used ponds on communal land to collect rainwater for livestock and household needs. With the spread of tube wells and modern water-supply facilities, many of these practices gradually declined.

Modern infrastructure has improved access to water, but its expansion may also have reduced reliance on community-based systems that helped households make use of seasonal rainfall.

Traditional methods should not be romanticised or assumed to meet all present-day needs. Nevertheless, suitable rainwater-harvesting practices can complement modern infrastructure and offer useful lessons in local resource management.

Rehabilitating community ponds, restoring appropriate water-retention structures and involving residents in maintaining these facilities could help communities capture rainfall that would otherwise flow away.

Such initiatives should be developed according to local needs and technical feasibility. Their success will depend not only on construction but also on maintenance, community ownership and clear arrangements for sharing the water.

The broader lesson is that development should strengthen useful local knowledge rather than discard it without considering its value.

Bajaur’s climate challenges are closely connected to the condition of its natural environment.

The 2015 study highlighted concerns about limited forest cover, deforestation, overgrazing, soil erosion and the degradation of rangelands. Prolonged dry conditions can intensify these pressures, while the loss of vegetation leaves hillsides more exposed to erosion.

Vegetation helps protect soil and can slow surface runoff. When hillsides become degraded, intense rainfall can carry away fertile soil and increase sediment movement, contributing to environmental damage and risks for downstream communities.

Forest and watershed protection should therefore be treated as an essential part of climate adaptation rather than a separate environmental concern.

Tree plantation initiatives must prioritise ecologically suitable species, long-term survival and proper maintenance. Simply counting the number of saplings planted is not enough to demonstrate lasting environmental improvement.

Rangeland management also requires attention to grazing pressures and the participation of communities whose livelihoods depend on these areas.

The study further reported declining populations of several wild animals and birds, alongside a significant decline in wild honey bees. Increasing agricultural chemical use was identified as one of the factors affecting bees.

The implications extend beyond biodiversity. Bees play an important role in pollination, which supports the production of many crops and contributes to agricultural resilience.

More responsible pesticide use, protection of pollinator habitats and better management of agricultural landscapes can help safeguard these ecological functions.

In Bajaur, environmental protection is inseparable from the protection of agriculture, water and rural livelihoods.

Climate-related risks cannot be managed effectively through emergency response alone.

When flash floods damage roads, destroy crops or threaten settlements, immediate relief is necessary. But a long-term strategy must also address the conditions that make communities vulnerable in the first place.

Bajaur needs effective early-warning arrangements, identification of vulnerable settlements, protection of natural drainage channels and practical community preparedness plans.

Local authorities should ensure that development projects account for flood risks and changing rainfall patterns. Roads, bridges, drainage systems and public facilities must be planned with adequate consideration of the environmental conditions in which they will operate.

Climate risk assessments should become a routine part of district-level planning and public investment. This would help identify potential risks before infrastructure is built and allow limited resources to be directed towards measures that reduce future losses.

Coordination among departments responsible for agriculture, irrigation, forests, disaster management and local development is equally important. These sectors are closely connected, yet fragmented planning can produce interventions that fail to address the wider problem.

A coordinated strategy would allow investments in water conservation, watershed restoration, agricultural adaptation and disaster preparedness to reinforce one another.

The government should also invest in updated local research. A new assessment building on the 2015 study could examine how seasonal patterns, groundwater levels, crop choices and water availability have changed over the intervening years.

Combining farmers’ experiences with meteorological records, groundwater monitoring and agricultural data would help policymakers distinguish established trends from local perceptions and identify where intervention is most urgently required.

Bajaur’s farmers have never been passive observers of environmental change. They have altered their crops, adopted improved seeds, installed tube wells, expanded irrigation and introduced modern farming practices.

The 2015 study documented this capacity to adapt, but it also exposed the limits of adaptation when natural resources are used without adequate monitoring and planning.

Farmers cannot be expected to manage these challenges alone. They need public investment, accessible technology, reliable information and institutions capable of planning beyond immediate needs.

The priorities are clear: monitor groundwater, improve rainwater harvesting, promote efficient irrigation, support climate-smart agriculture, protect forests and watersheds, and strengthen disaster preparedness. These measures must be informed by local evidence and developed with the participation of the communities they are intended to serve.

The 2015 study was an early warning about shorter winters, longer summers, changing rainfall, prolonged dry spells and falling groundwater. More than a decade later, its findings offer an important basis for asking whether development policies are adequately addressing the risks faced by Bajaur.

Climate change does not always announce itself through a dramatic disaster. Sometimes it appears in a winter that seems shorter, rainfall that arrives late, a spring that passes quickly, a stream that dries earlier or a tube well that must reach deeper underground.

For farmers, these changes are not abstract scientific projections. They influence crop choices, household incomes, irrigation costs and the future of rural livelihoods.

The task now is to turn their observations into evidence-based planning and practical investment. That requires updated research, coordinated institutions and a willingness to treat water and other natural resources as assets that must be protected for future generations.

The question is no longer simply whether climate change has reached Bajaur. It is whether our policies, development plans and investments are ready to respond.

The writer is a government servant serving in the Tribal Region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.