Climate Warning We Ignored
Dr Ikramullah
Peshawar: There was a time when the people of Bajaur did not need a calendar to know which season had arrived. The cold winds, snowfall on the mountains, spring flowers, summer heat, monsoon rains and autumn leaves were enough.
Farmers planned their crops according to these natural signals, livestock depended on water and fodder, and rural life moved with the rhythm of the seasons.
But that rhythm is changing.
More than a decade ago, a study conducted by the University of Agriculture Peshawar and Intercooperation Pakistan recorded what farmers in Bajaur were already observing about their changing environment.
The fieldwork was conducted in 2015 in three Union Councils, Tauheed Abad, Inayat Kalay and Raghagan, involving experienced farmers who had observed agriculture and weather patterns for decades.
What makes that study particularly interesting today is not only what it said at that time, but how many of its observations appear familiar in Bajaur today.
Farmers reported that winter was becoming shorter, spring was shrinking and autumn was losing its traditional duration, while summer was becoming longer. They recalled that winter once continued for around 13 to 14 weeks, whereas it had reduced to about 10 to 12 weeks. Summer, which traditionally lasted around 13 to 16 weeks, was being experienced for almost 26 to 27 weeks.
In simple words, the traditional boundaries between the four seasons were beginning to disappear.
And if we look around today, this does not sound like an observation belonging to some distant past. Warm winters, early heat, prolonged summers and sudden changes in weather have become familiar experiences.
The story of rainfall is even more revealing.
Farmers told the researchers that winter rains were increasingly arriving late, while summer rains were becoming more intense and concentrated. Dry periods in spring and summer were becoming longer, while autumn was becoming considerably drier.
This is where the real problem begins. A rainy year does not necessarily mean a water-secure year. If a large amount of rain falls within a few hours, it can produce flash floods and erosion instead of gradually feeding the soil, springs and groundwater.
Bajaur experienced a painful example of this in August 2025, when intense rainfall and flash floods affected several parts of the district. Across KP, the 2025 monsoon brought severe rainfall, flooding and landslides. It was a reminder that changing rainfall can become a direct threat to lives, homes, roads, crops and livelihoods.
The temperature story is equally significant.
The old Bajaur study reported increasing temperatures in autumn, winter and spring. Interestingly, farmers felt that parts of summer were relatively cooler because of increased greenery, tree plantation and irrigation.
But the wider climate record gives us a bigger picture. Pakistan Meteorological Department now maintains long-term climate records and assessments, allowing changes in temperature and rainfall to be followed over time.
This is where the discussion moves beyond perception.
A farmer may say, “The weather has changed.” Increasingly, the scientific record is telling us the same thing.
But perhaps the biggest concern for Bajaur is not temperature itself. It is water.
The same study found that irrigation-water availability had increased considerably because of the rapid expansion of tube wells. More land was brought under cultivation and fallow land decreased. Agriculture benefited enormously from this change.
Yet there was a warning hidden beneath this success.
The groundwater table was falling by around 7 to 10 metres. The study observed that groundwater extraction was exceeding natural recharge and warned that continued expansion of tube wells could create a serious problem in the future.
That future is now much closer than it appeared in 2015.
The changing water situation is also visible in the crops grown by farmers. Rice cultivation declined sharply in some areas because natural springs and surface-water sources reduced or dried, while tube-well irrigation was considered too expensive for rice. Barley and lentil also declined significantly because wheat and maize offered better economic returns.
This is important because not every agricultural change is caused by climate change. Farmers also respond to markets, prices, technology and profitability. The study found that wheat and maize production had increased dramatically, with farmers mainly attributing higher yields to improved seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and mechanised farming rather than climate change itself.
There is, however, another interesting side to the changing climate.
Climate change has not only created problems. It has also changed what is agriculturally possible.
Farmers reported that the longer warm season had allowed some of them to grow tomatoes three times in a year. The first crop could be intercropped with standing wheat, followed by another crop after wheat harvest and a third crop later in the year.
This is a remarkable example of farmers adapting to changing conditions. But even such opportunities have to be considered alongside the growing pressure on water.
In the past, communities also relied on traditional rainwater harvesting. Ponds on communal land were used to collect rainwater for livestock and household needs. With the spread of tube wells and modern water-supply facilities, many of these traditional practices declined.
We gained convenience, but perhaps lost some of the traditional wisdom that helped communities live within the limits of available water.
The problem is not limited to agriculture and water. Bajaur’s natural environment is changing too. Forest cover is already limited, while deforestation, overgrazing and prolonged dry conditions have contributed to soil erosion and degradation of rangelands. Denuded hillsides are less capable of retaining water and soil, increasing the risk of erosion and flash floods.
Even wildlife and pollinators have been affected. The study reported declining populations of several wild animals and birds, while wild honey bees had also declined significantly, partly because of increasing use of agricultural chemicals. This is not merely an environmental concern because bees are important for pollination and agricultural productivit.
So, what should be done?
The first and most important response should be to change the way we manage water. More tube wells cannot be the only answer. Bajaur needs to capture more rainwater that currently runs away during intense rainfall. Small dams, check dams, ponds, recharge structures and other suitable water-retention measures can slow runoff and allow more water to enter the ground.
Groundwater levels should also be regularly monitored. We cannot manage what we do not measure. Areas where groundwater is rapidly declining should be identified before the problem becomes critical.
Agriculture must also become more climate-smart. Farmers need access to improved and less water-intensive varieties, efficient irrigation, timely weather information and guidance on changing sowing dates. Their traditional knowledge should be combined with modern agricultural research and weather forecasting.
At the same time, forests and watersheds need serious attention. Tree plantation should not be treated merely as an environmental activity. In Bajaur, protecting vegetation means protecting soil, water and agriculture itself.
Finally, we need to move from disaster response towards disaster prevention. Early-warning systems, identification of vulnerable settlements, protection of natural drainage channels and community preparedness can reduce the damage caused by increasingly intense rainfall.
There is an important lesson in all this.
Bajaur’s farmers have never been passive victims of nature. They have changed their crops, adopted new varieties, installed tube wells, improved irrigation and introduced modern farming practices. The old study itself shows their remarkable ability to adjust.
The challenge now is to make that adaptation sustainable.
The 2015 study was, in many ways, an early warning. It documented shorter winters, longer summers, changing rainfall, prolonged dry spells and falling groundwater. More than ten years later, these concerns have become even more relevant.
Perhaps, therefore, the question is no longer whether climate change has reached Bajaur.
It has.
The real question is whether our planning and development policies have reached the point where they can respond to it.
Climate change does not arrive with a formal announcement. It arrives quietly: a winter that feels shorter, a rain that comes late, a spring that disappears quickly, a stream that dries earlier, a tube well that has to go deeper and a summer that seems to stay longer every year.
Our farmers noticed these changes more than a decade ago. Now it is time for our policies, development plans and investments to listen to them.
The writer is a government servant in KP’s Tribal Region, serving in a capacity that likely involves administration or governance within the region.
