Why Are Arab Parties Emerging as Kingmakers in Israel?
News Desk
Israel: Israel’s Arab political parties are poised to achieve a historic breakthrough, with early exit polls suggesting they could secure between 15 and 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset following the October 27, 2026, elections.
Their performance could prove decisive in determining the country’s next government, placing the Arab minority at the centre of Israel’s political calculations.
The projected gains have renewed attention on a diverse community whose political identity, religious composition and relationship with the Israeli state are often misunderstood.
Who Are the Arab Citizens of Israel?
Arab citizens constitute approximately 21 percent of Israel’s population. Most are descendants of Palestinians who remained within the territory that became Israel during the 1948 war and the establishment of the state. Today, they hold Israeli citizenship and are entitled to vote in national elections.
Many identify as “Palestinian citizens of Israel,” a term reflecting their Palestinian heritage, Arabic language, cultural identity and citizenship within Israel.
Although they participate in the country’s electoral system, Arab citizens continue to face social, economic and political inequalities compared with Jewish citizens. Their community is also far from religiously or politically homogeneous.
While the majority are Sunni Muslims, Israel’s Arab population also includes Christians and other communities with distinct historical experiences and political preferences. Consequently, Arab political parties do not represent a single religious constituency or a uniform ideological position.
Four Major Parties, Two Political Blocs
Arab political representation in the current election is centred on four major parties: Hadash, Ta’al, Balad and Ra’am. The first three are associated with the Joint List alliance, while Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, is contesting separately.
The Joint List brings together political forces representing different strands of Arab society, including secular, nationalist, progressive and left-wing constituencies.
Hadash, established in 1977, is a left-wing political movement that combines Arab and Jewish membership. It advocates Arab-Jewish equality, workers’ rights and social justice.
Ta’al, founded and led by veteran Arab politician Ahmad Tibi, promotes Palestinian national aspirations and civil rights through parliamentary politics. It supports a two-state solution and operates within Israel’s electoral system.
Balad advances a more assertive Palestinian national identity. Its political programme calls for transforming Israel from a state defined as Jewish into a state of all its citizens, with equal national rights for Arabs and Jews.
Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, previously participated in the Joint List but later separated from the alliance. Its independent electoral strategy reflects a different approach to parliamentary cooperation and coalition politics.
The division between Ra’am and the Joint List could have important consequences for coalition negotiations, as the two blocs may pursue different conditions for supporting a future government.
Religious Diversity Shapes Voting Patterns
The political preferences of Arab citizens vary across religious communities, geographical regions and social backgrounds.
Sunni Muslims form the largest segment of Israel’s Arab population, with significant communities in towns and cities across the country, including Nazareth and Umm al-Fahm. Their votes are divided among Arab political parties, including Ra’am, Hadash, Ta’al and Balad.
Bedouin communities, particularly those living in the Negev in southern Israel, represent another important constituency. Ra’am has traditionally sought support among religiously conservative voters and sections of the Bedouin population.
Arab Christians, many of whom live in northern Israel and cities such as Haifa, also contribute to the diversity of Arab political representation. Some support secular and left-wing parties, including Hadash and Ta’al, although voting preferences vary within the community.
The Druze community presents a different political picture. Although many Druze identify with their Arab cultural and linguistic heritage, a substantial segment participates in mainstream Israeli political life and supports Zionist or Jewish-led parties. Druze men are also subject to compulsory military service under Israeli law. However, political views within the community are diverse, and some support Arab nationalist parties.
These differences underline why electoral gains by Arab parties cannot be interpreted solely through religious identity. Political priorities, civil rights, national identity, economic concerns and attitudes towards the Israeli state all influence voting behaviour.
Why Arab Votes Matter in Israel’s Political System
Israel uses proportional representation, meaning parliamentary seats are allocated largely according to the share of votes received by eligible parties. The Knesset has 120 members, and a government requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers to secure a parliamentary majority.
Because no single party typically wins enough seats to govern independently, coalition negotiations are central to the formation of Israeli governments. Smaller parties can therefore exercise considerable influence when larger political blocs fall short of a majority.
Arab parties have demonstrated their electoral strength before. The Joint List won 13 seats in the 2015 election and 15 in the 2020 election, establishing itself as a significant parliamentary force.
A major shift occurred in 2021, when Ra’am became the first independent Arab party to join an Israeli governing coalition. Under Mansour Abbas, the party adopted a pragmatic approach that prioritised securing benefits and improvements for Arab communities through parliamentary participation.
That precedent demonstrated that Arab political representation could extend beyond opposition politics and influence the formation of a government.
Netanyahu Rejects Cooperation
The latest exit polls suggest Arab parties could once again hold the balance of power between rival political camps. Neither the bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition camp associated with former military chief Gadi Eisenkot appears positioned to form a government independently, according to the projections described in the preliminary reports.
Netanyahu has maintained a hardline position towards Arab parties, describing them as anti-Zionist and rejecting the prospect of forming a government dependent on their support.
During the election campaign, he also accused his opponents of seeking power through cooperation with Arab political forces, presenting such an arrangement as a potential threat to Israel’s security.
Eisenkot, meanwhile, initially ruled out relying on the Joint List to establish a coalition. However, the prospect of a parliamentary deadlock has intensified pressure on the opposition to reconsider its options.
Supporters gathered at Eisenkot’s election headquarters reportedly expressed openness to cooperation with Arab parties if it could bring an end to Netanyahu’s leadership. Political analysts have likewise suggested that the opposition may have limited alternatives if it hopes to assemble the 61 seats needed for a majority.
Any potential agreement would nevertheless face significant political obstacles. Differences over Palestinian rights, national identity, security policy and the terms of coalition participation could complicate negotiations between Jewish-led opposition parties and Arab representatives.
Mansour Abbas Holds a Potentially Decisive Position
Mansour Abbas has indicated that both Netanyahu’s political camp and its opponents are seeking support from Ra’am and other Arab political forces.
His position suggests that Ra’am may be willing to consider cooperation depending on the political circumstances and the commitments offered by prospective partners. The party’s previous participation in a governing coalition provides a precedent for such negotiations.
However, the willingness of Ra’am to cooperate does not automatically mean that the Joint List would follow the same course. The parties have different political priorities and may impose different conditions before supporting a government.
If the projected seat totals are confirmed, Arab political leaders could gain substantial bargaining power over policy commitments, public investment, civil equality and the treatment of Arab communities. Their influence would depend not only on the number of seats won but also on whether they could agree on a common negotiating position.
What Happens Next?
The final outcome will depend on the official vote count and subsequent coalition negotiations. Under Israel’s parliamentary system, the president consults political representatives and assigns a candidate the task of forming a government. The candidate must then assemble sufficient parliamentary support to establish a governing majority.
If Eisenkot secures backing from enough Arab lawmakers and other political partners, he could improve his chances of replacing Netanyahu. Conversely, if the opposition fails to assemble a majority and Netanyahu remains unable to secure the necessary support, Israel could face a prolonged political deadlock.
A failure to form a government could ultimately lead to another election, extending the uncertainty surrounding the country’s political future.
The emerging results therefore carry implications beyond the electoral performance of four Arab parties. They highlight the growing importance of Arab citizens within Israel’s parliamentary system and the tension between their electoral representation and the reluctance of some mainstream political leaders to work with them.
Whether the projected breakthrough translates into governing influence will depend on the final results, the terms of coalition negotiations and the willingness of rival political camps to accept Arab parties as partners rather than merely potential sources of parliamentary support.
