Russian-Ukrainian war: A difficult terrain to navigate for Pakistan

Ishtiaq Ahmed

There is a great deal of disquiet at home and abroad about the timing of Imran Khan’s visit to Russia notwithstanding that the fact it was planned well before the invasion of Ukraine. Although, the likelihood of invasion was very much being hinted by the western diplomatic and intelligence family, no one, not even the best of these, anticipated the speed by which it may unravel.

The critics of the visit maintain that given the current situation, it would have been more politically prudent of the Prime Minister to postpone his visit. They are quick to point out that this could potentially sour Pakistan’s  relations with its western allies, thus, in the long run, damaging the inherent interests of the country.

On the other hand, the supporters of the visit are even quicker to assert that the visit was agreed well before the likely of any invasion and in any event, Pakistan being a sovereign nation, must be free to determine and align its foreign policy as it sees appropriate for the benefit of the country.

Both sides of the arguments are not without some merit. I have carefully read and listened to a number my friends and colleagues on the both sides of this paradigm. Inevitably, the opinions are divided on the rights and the wrongs of the Prime Miniter’s visit and it’s timing.

I have attempted to scope these conversations in this short piece to encourage further engagement on this very important subject matter.

Amongst others, Mohammed Ajeeb CBE, the former first Pakistani Muslim Lord Mayor of Bradford, UK, and an ardent political commentator of developments around the globe, seems to have a most balanced overview of the challenges and choices ahead for Pakistan.

According to him, Imran Khan was faced with ‘Hobsons choice’ regarding the preplanned visit to Moscow.

Either decision was Laden with immense difficulties. However, having taken the decision not to cancel, he needs be judicious when navigating forward; for example, he must avoid being manoeuvred into either camps. However, this may be difficult when the issue may come before the General Assembly of the UN.

In principle, Pakistan has no choice but to condemn the illegal act of Russia for unprovoked attack on Ukraine. But to achieve some level of parity, it needs also to boldly reference the double standards of big powers around the globe and if these countries continue to shirk their responsibilities for appeasing their political and economic interests than there would be no hope of achieving any form of permanent peace.

Pakistan must also call out for a process of conciliation to begin immediately with the Ukrainian elected leadership, even at this late stage. Political dialogue has to be the only realistic way out of this abyss.

This may be easily said than done because of Pakistan’s own position on Kashmir, Palestine and of late Yemen where one of Pakistan’s closest ally and benefactor namely Saudi Arabia is the culprit. America and Western Europe, including Britain, will be watching closely the response of Islamabad to this volatile and dangerous conflict which has every potential of reaching beyond the borders of Ukraine.

In all eventualities, Pakistan has to be more discerning in its foreign policy given that there is an inevitable shift in the axis of power from the West to the East with Russia, China and India coming closer.

China is regarded as a longstanding ally of Pakistan and it is to be expected that Pakistan will follow its lead. Also, in this emerging triangular relationship between Russia, China and India, Pakistan cannot afford to allow India the space unchallenged.

There are other very practical reasons for Pakistan to move closer to Russia. Pakistan is facing huge shortages in amenities such gas and oil. It is therefore looking towards Russia, for example, regarding the acquisition of relatively cheap supply of gas. At this juncture, it needs to be noted that Germany depends on one third of its gas supply from Russia. Pakistan must carefully position itself in this shifting axis’s of power from West to East.

There are pull and push factors on both sides. Historically, Pakistan has achieved some close relations with many of the European nations, particularly, Britain through the remnants of the colonial past, and the post colonial affiliations by remaining an important member of the Commonwealth.

There are also large and expanding communities of British Pakistanis which are of a huge economic significance to Pakistan, notwithstanding their political and cultural significance. This is acknowledged by the recent granting of voting rights to overseas Pakistanis by the Imran Khan’s government.

There is also a strong Pakistan diaspora throughout Europe and America. These considerations will also need to be balanced in determining the course of Pakistan’s foreign policy and stance. The implications of these scenarios for Pakistan are huge and would need to be mitigated carefully.