The Strike That Changed the Middle East
Rohan Gunaratna
Singapore: On February 28, 2026, the world witnessed an extraordinary military operation that has fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
In a joint operation, the United States and Israel launched a meticulously planned, high-intensity strike against Iran, targeting the country’s political and military leadership as well as its strategic infrastructure.
The operation was fueled by credible intelligence indicating an imminent Iranian attack on Israel. This intelligence, gathered largely by the CIA, allowed Israeli fighter jets to strike Tehran’s Leadership House, eliminating Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with his closest associates.
Khamenei was not merely the spiritual and political figurehead of the Islamic Republic. Under his nearly four-decade rule, he orchestrated a regime that pursued nuclear weapons, advanced missile technology, and an extensive network of proxy militias.
He personally oversaw operations that resulted in the deaths of thousands inside and outside Iran, including the 2020 assassination of US General Qasem Soleimani. In the eyes of many, his death represents not only retribution but also a pivotal moment for the Iranian people, long subjected to brutal domestic repression.
US President Trump hailed the strike as justice for the victims of Khamenei’s tyranny, emphasizing the broader implications for global security.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu echoed these sentiments, describing the operation as a “powerful surprise attack” that neutralized the Iranian regime’s top leadership. While opinions will vary across the globe, what is undeniable is the precision and scale of the coordinated US-Israeli effort.
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The operation was codenamed “Epic Fury” by the Pentagon and “Lion’s Roar” by Israel, reflecting the dual objectives of decapitating the Iranian leadership and dismantling strategic military capabilities.
Targets included nuclear and missile facilities, energy infrastructure, and command centers across Iran.
Among those eliminated were Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council; Amir Nasirzadeh, defense minister; and several senior intelligence and counterterrorism officials. While current President Masoud Pezeshkian survived, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not.
On the first day alone, over 200 Israeli fighter jets struck more than 500 targets, deploying around 1,200 munitions, while US forces added another 1,050 munitions to the campaign.
Advanced aerial defense systems, including SA-65 batteries in Kermanshah, were neutralized, establishing Israeli air dominance over Iranian territory. Notably, four B-2 bombers flew from US soil to participate in the attacks, signaling the extraordinary commitment of American military resources.
The immediate consequences were seismic. Iranians reacted with a mix of grief and celebration, grief among loyalists, celebration among citizens who had long endured the repression of the regime.
The killing of thousands of protesters by Khamenei’s security forces had fueled widespread resentment, and his removal has emboldened calls for regime change.
In response to the leadership vacuum, Iran announced a temporary leadership council comprising President Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Eje’i, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, former head of Iran’s seminaries.
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While Mojtaba Khamenei, the late Supreme Leader’s son, enjoys IRGC support, the Assembly of Experts, a council of 88 senior clerics, will ultimately select the next Supreme Leader.
Iran’s military posture in the region remains a critical concern.
The IRGC’s attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for global oil shipments, prompted U.S. strikes against Iran’s naval assets.
The risk of further escalation is real, yet the removal of Khamenei and other high-ranking officials has disrupted Tehran’s chain of command and weakened its immediate capacity for retaliation.
This campaign did not emerge in isolation. Indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva had failed, and the US had deployed roughly one-third of its air and naval assets in the Middle East by February 26, 2026.
This included two aircraft carriers, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford, underscoring the unprecedented scale of force prepared for a strike that would reshape the region’s power dynamics.
The broader strategic aim of the US-Israeli campaign is clear: dismantle Iran’s nuclear ambitions, missile programs, and proxy networks, while exerting pressure that could precipitate genuine political reform.
Limited strikes in June 2025 had disrupted Iran’s nuclear capabilities but failed to dismantle them entirely.
Now, in the wake of February 28, there exists a window of opportunity to leverage the momentum for a fundamental change in Iran’s governance.
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Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has pursued a strategy rooted in ideological anti-imperialism, security anxieties, regional ambitions, and regime survival.
Tehran has consistently positioned the US as an “oppressive power” and Israel as a “Little Satan,” seeking regional hegemony through asymmetric means. Its nuclear program, missile development, and sponsorship of proxies, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Ansar Allah in Yemen, posed threats not only to the Middle East but to global security.
The US and its regional partners have already chipped away at Iran’s influence. The post-October 2023 Hamas-led attacks further catalyzed Western and Arab alignment against Iran’s regional ambitions.
Syria, under Bashar al-Assad, slipped from Tehran’s control, and proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq were weakened, demonstrating the limits of Iran’s regional reach. The February 28 strikes reinforced these dynamics, creating conditions for regime change supported both domestically and internationally.
The Iranian protest movement, which erupted in December 2025 over economic collapse and soaring inflation, is a vital indicator of internal pressures.
Despite the regime’s violent suppression efforts, the movement persists and has grown stronger following Khamenei’s death. Domestic dissent, coupled with international isolation, places the clerical leadership under unprecedented strain.
Yet caution is warranted. Tehran has long demonstrated resilience in the face of existential threats, often buying time through deceptive diplomacy while preparing for long-term survival. The challenge for the US and its allies will be to sustain military and political pressure to ensure that the Iranian regime’s capabilities do not rebound.
Without continued oversight and support for democratic aspirations within Iran, the cycle of aggression and retaliation could resume.
In the short term, however, the decapitation strikes have created a historic moment. The removal of Khamenei and other senior leaders provides both the Iranian people and the international community an opportunity to envision a future free from the oppression and regional destabilization that have defined the Islamic Republic for decades.
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The coordination between the US and Israel, supported by regional partners, has not only demonstrated the reach and precision of modern military intelligence but has also redefined the contours of power in the Middle East.
Whether Iran transitions toward reform or devolves into chaos will depend on the ability of its citizens, regional players, and the international community to seize this moment. What is certain is that the death of Ayatollah Khamenei marks the end of an era, a decisive chapter in the ongoing struggle for stability, security, and justice in the Middle East.
The next weeks and months will determine whether this window of opportunity leads to meaningful change or whether Tehran’s legacy of repression and instability endures.
Rohan Gunaratna is a professor of Security Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at the Nanyang Technological University. He is a trainer for law enforcement, national security and military counter terrorism units; and is the author and editor of over 30 books, including the Handbook of Terrorism in the Middle East.
The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.
This article was originally published on the author’s webpage and has been republished with modifications by PenPK.com, with the author’s permission.
