Russia-Ukraine War: What Does This All Mean for Pakistan?

Ishtiaq Ahmed

London: All the indications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine have been there for several months. Historically, Russians had a particular dislike of Ukraine and its role in the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and its subsequent leaning towards Europe further angered the Kremlin.
Western intelligence has been reporting the imminence of the Russian invasion. The intensive diplomacy and the possible threat of a unilateral response by NATO and its allies to any form of invasion of Ukraine failed to deter President Putin, who appears to be assertive and uncompromising in his stance.

Although there has been a unanimous condemnation of the Russian action against Ukraine by the NATO and its allies, any form of direct military action in Ukraine is being resisted. The response is being confined to imposing sanctions against Russian banks, the energy sector, exports, and Russian oligarchs close to President Putin.
These types of sanctions have been talked about and threatened over the past few months, but they have not persuaded President Putin to go ahead with his intended military plan for Ukraine. Now that the invasion has been launched, it is anyone’s guess whether sanctions alone will have any desired impact or whether NATO would eventually be pushed to consider military action and involvement, which on any account will be a protracted affair.

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was established to deter Soviet expansionism, forbidding the revival of nationalist militarism in Europe through a strong North American presence on the continent, and encourage European political integration.
This is in response to the devastation inflicted on Europe by World War II in which approximately 36.5 million Europeans died, 19 million of them civilians.
NATO was founded to prevent the recurrence of World War II scale devastation. However, in real terms, in the decades following the establishment of the organization, NATO‘s prime focus has been to stop Soviet Union expansion and influence.

The present Russian Federation is the remnant of the former Soviet Union. With the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1988–1991, a number of former Soviet states became independent sovereign states; Ukraine was a one of such states. As a consequence, NATO’s and it’s allies focus switched to containing the expansion and influence of the revamped Russian Federation with President Putin at the helm.

Ukraine’s position is very strategic. It sits on the border with Europe. Although not a member of NATO, it is of particular interest to NATO for its strategic position. NATO has a direct interest in seeing the consolidation of the Ukrainian democracy as an example to other aspiring states in the Russian Federation.

What does this all mean for Pakistan, and whether what is being played out in Ukraine and between Russia and NATO is of any relevance to Pakistan’s relations with the rest of the world?

Pakistan is a sovereign nation and, as such, is in a position to independently construct or deconstruct reciprocal alliances; however, in doing so, it must be judicious in its approach. Ideologically, Pakistan has never been at ease with the former communist Soviet Union. The invasion and the illegal occupation of Afghanistan further destroyed any possibility of developing any level of meaningful relations between the two countries.

Ideological differences are important, but these should not prevent forging mutually beneficial links between the two countries. Similar ideological differences exist between Pakistan and China, but this has not prevented both countries from developing close ties.

On the other hand, Pakistan has enjoyed multi-layered relations with Europe, which are both historical and present. For example, there are millions of Pakistani nationals in Europe of significant economic value to Pakistan. There are other close educational, economic, and political ties without which Pakistan would be much poorer.
Also, Turkey, a key Muslim ally of Pakistan, provides a unique gateway to Europe. Turkey is a valued member of NATO, bolstering the organization’s traditional defense forces. These considerations are at the centre of Pakistan’s leaning towards NATO. It is in this prism that we can place the designation of Pakistan as a “major non-NATO ally” in 2004.
Finally, Russia is the invader of the sovereign Ukraine. We should not be cajoling the invader.

The writer is a British citizen of Pakistani origin with a keen interest in Pakistani and international affairs.