Revolution or confusion: Pakistan embroiled in uncertainties

Mohammed Ajeeb

London: Pakistan is one of the unfortunate countries which from its very inception has not enjoyed uninterrupted development in democracy or periods of political stability, peace, prosperity and solidarity. Pakistani nation’s short history is replete with many ominous ups and downs, including its disintegration in 1971.

Its decision from the very outset to sit in the lap of United States derived from its early feudal leadership as well as the fear of her neighbour India whose political leadership was secular and pro Soviet Union, the emerging communist world power. Hence, Pakistan chose a staunch enemy of the Soviet block America as its protector and a friend in need although in later years it proved contrary to its expectations and beliefs. In fact, America’s main objective for this marriage of convenience was the fear of growing political influence of Soviet Union into South Asia.

Thus Pakistan became strategically an important country for the West. However, the friendship and reliance on US military and economic aid that even continues today despite some upsets and disagreements over some issues in the past three decades were difficult to avoid and ignore. But separation of East Pakistan now Bangladesh as the result of war between India and Pakistan began to sow the seeds of mistrust and betrayal of America, deeply felt by the people and politicians of West Pakistan.

This sense of mistrust contributed in latter years, particularly during the time of manufacturing and experimenting of nuclear weapons and American support of dictators, to anti-America sentiments in Pakistan. Therefore, the ground was well paved and clear for Imran Khan to politically cash in by adding the recent demarche to the foreign office by the American administration.

On the one hand, the country is being governed by the disreputed and allegedly corrupt bunch of politicians and on the other the opposition is led by Imran Khan, a populist leader, whose policy of confrontation both with the army establishment and the incumbent seems becoming more and more aggressive and uncompromising

Since the successful vote of no confidence in Khan’s government in late March of this year, he has become frustrated, bitter, belligerent and vengeful. Pakistan’s current economy being in the doldrums and dire political situation prognosticate many uncertainties and unpredictabilities for its near future. On the one hand, the country is being governed by the disreputed and allegedly corrupt bunch of politicians and on the other the opposition is led by Imran Khan, a populist leader, whose policy of confrontation both with the army establishment and the incumbent seems becoming more and more aggressive and uncompromising. In addition, the effects of depression in global economy are being felt more acutely by the poor and middle classes of the country and thus the growing disenchament with the present government is becoming entrenched.

The government is comprised of in congruously varied individuals and parties with every possibility of being weak, fragile and unable to make decisions quickly and cohesively. It is also a stop gap kind of arrangement proposed and implemented by the establishment.

Khan during his long march to Islamabad was met by a young assassin in Wazirabad who shot him to kill but he luckily escaped with minor injuries to his legs. The incident unleashed the expected waves of violent protests in some cities and towns of the country. Imran Khan has publicly announced three individuals who he alleges are responsible for hatching the heinous plan to assassin him. He is also demanding the three individuals to resign while the commission appointed by the Supreme Court begins to investigate his allegations. Meanwhile, police have reluctantly registered the first investigation report on the order of Supreme Court.

The reasons for the police to delay their action are obvious. They were under the pressure of the Punjab government not to include in the allegations of an army general. However, IK’s insistence on the inclusion of these three individuals can be construed as the continued pressure on the establishment until the end of this month when the appointment of the new Chief is expected to be made. The ongoing open hostilities and allegations of IK against the establishment have widened the gulf of enmity between him and Gen. Bajwa. This can also be inimical to overall wider interests and the discipline of high ranking officers of the Army.

Additionally, the decision of IK to recommence his long march from Wazirabad to Islamabad which might take 2 weeks to reach there, the protest by his supporters to block major routes to the capital has become common occurrence. This is causing intolerable inconvenience to the inhabitants of Islamabad and Rawalpindi. The timing of reaching and rallying in Islamabad is tactical decision to maximise the pressure on the government and establishment to postpone the decision for the appointment of the Chief and force them to announce the date for immediate general elections.  Hence the whole situation is dangerously moving to head on collision between the PTI and establishment.

The ongoing open hostilities and allegations of IK against the establishment have widened the gulf of enmity between him and Gen. Bajwa. This can also be inimical to overall wider interests and the discipline of high ranking officers of the Army

We can’t detect any laxing in IK’s attitude for any compromise or dialogue. He seems to have burned his boats and ready to play his final wicket regardless of the consequences. He still describes his long march as the instrument for real freedom and revolution. His rallies have been well attended and tumultuous. He has not ceased to throw new challenges every day to the government and establishment. Imran Khan has all the characteristics of a populist leader. He is good at releasing the gradual accumulation of pent up frustration and disappointment of the people transpiring from the ill-performance of the previous governments as well as the unconstitutional interventions by the establishment in making and breaking political governments.

However, Imran Khan, despite his lofty claim for creating a revolution in Pakistan is misleading particularly the younger population and females of the country by his undisputed popularity, his immense charisma and dominant personality.  But he is not and can’t be a revolutionary. He is neither Khomeini nor Fidel Castor or Mao Zedong. He is a blend of western liberalism with Islamic touch. Also by using sensitive religious card to hoodwink people into the concept of Riasat-e-Madina is akin to in many ways to replicate the failed attempts of Gen.

Ziaand his followers. There is no clarity in his politics. He has tried his best, during tenure of his Prime Ministership, to appease and please the establishment and bragged and shouted constantly about his servility and loyalty to the establishment. Now he is accusing them with such titles as animals and traitors. Is this not hypocrisy of monstrous dimensions? His incessant utterances and rhetoric repeated every day for the last many months are nauseating. He has failed to provide any clear objectives and directions to the nation for a kind of political system he wants to develop for Pakistan. He is dangerously indoctrinating and preparing the youth of the nation for civil war. He is egoist and arrogant. In my dictionary he is a non descriptze alot.

The possible way forward out of this political quagmire is to seek the will of the people by holding free and fair elections for the sake of continuing the brittle process of democracy but with rapidly growing mistrust and polarisation of various kinds even this laudable option does not seem feasible because the outcome of such exercise is not guaranteed to bring the desired political stability

Sadly Pakistan at the present is a leader less country. The current lot of so-called leaders are inept, corrupt, hypocrite and inveterate liars including Imran Khan. Above all they are dummies and puppets of the establishment and have no political or moral courage and scruples to admit this.None of these discredited leaders deserve to rule Pakistan. The Army Generals, for the first time, have confessed publicly their past unconstitutional mistakes which augers hope for their non-interference in the democratic process. In the present uncertain and dire economic and political situation no army General would venture to impose martial law. It would be monumental stupidity of this powerful institution.

The possible way forward out of this political quagmire is to seek the will of the people by holding free and fair elections for the sake of continuing the brittle process of democracy but with rapidly growing mistrust and polarisation of various kinds even this laudable option does not seem feasible because the outcome of such exercise is not guaranteed to bring the desired political stability. All the indications and the available evidence suggest that the last week in November is going to be most important and decisive and conclusive for current political turmoil.

The arrest of Imran Khan which seems imminent and if as the result of it the law and order situation becomes bloody and violent the neutrals will not remain silent spectators.  They will have to intervene and may declare national emergency and impose national Government of their choice. In this kind of scenario it will not be only Imran Khan who will be big looser but the Peoples of Pakistan and democracy will be the biggest looses too.

 The author is a British citizen of Pakistani origin and first Asian Lord Mayor in Britain with a keen interest in political and international affairs.