Pakistan’s Troubled Electoral Landscape

Mohammed Ajeeb

London: Are elections going to be held in Pakistan in the last week of January 2024? This question is being asked by all and sundry in Pakistan, but the answer to it is complex and uncertain.

There are a number of competing factors that make the situation extremely complex and fluid. The country still continues to suffer from political and economic claustrophobia without visible signs of improvement. At the same time, the outward behaviour of the interim government and the high command seems to suggest they are not in a hurry to move forward to elections, even if that entails a constitutional default.

The arrangements for a huge and tumultuous reception for the return of PML-N chief to Lahore on the 21^st of this month are in full swing to impress on the nation his relevance and continuing popularity. The return of the messiah is eagerly awaited by the party leadership to rescue the dwindling fortunes of the party, whose public popularity has taken a steep nose dive of late. In some ways, the public response to the reception rally at the Minar-e-Pakistan may signal a timeline for the elections.

Meanwhile, the discrete efforts to ameliorate the standoff between Imran Khan and the high command are reported to be abortive, and the final outcome of cases against him cannot be precisely predicted, particularly with the appointment of Justice Qazi Faez Isa as the new Chief Justice of Pakistan, who is well known for his independence and respect for the constitution.

The military establishment, usually perceived as the ultimate arbitrator, is faced with an extremely complex situation made even more difficult by the deficit of public trust in almost all parties and their leaders. Public distrust and rancour against politicians have reached unprecedented heights, and despite the brave faces being put up by politicians of all parties, their anxieties are clearly to be seen.

We also throw into the mix the almost uncontrolled activities of terrorist elements, the regular and unabated incidents of violence against the country’s minorities, the life-sapping cost of living, and the swelling ranks of millions on or below the poverty line, to mention a few of the divisive factors that dominate the country’s political scene.

The country’s political landscape is extremely hazardous and volatile. The political rivalries are so intense that even if the elections are held at the end of January next year, the results will not be acceptable to the losers.

Equally, people will have no confidence in the selected government given the heavy baggage of mismanagement and corruption that is carried. At the same time, if the future government, once again, is composed of tried, tested, and failed individuals and parties, it is unlikely that they will be able to perform miracles. Hence, the same old story of verbal diarrhoea without any new ideas will carry on to the dismay of the public.

Along with the public, the senior command of the establishment also does not trust the political leadership across the board. In fact, at present, helped by the weak and divided political leadership, the establishment has taken hold of the country’s internal and external affairs through the proxy of the country’s political leadership. The establishment also needs to be reminded that public trust in them is also at its lowest ebb.

If nothing else, PTI and Imran Khan have succeeded in causing a very serious dent to the image and reputation of both the establishment and politicians, which the new high command has managed to repair but not fully. Also, IK continues to enjoy more electoral support than any other political leader in the country. This is a major point of anxiety and fear for the political leadership, particularly the PML, which for a very long time has enjoyed a questionable political hold in Punjab, the largest province and the maker and unmaker of many governments.

Despite the rants and chants of the PML leaders, their political authority in the province is at an unprecedented low on the slippery slope of political bewilderment. The six-million-dollar question is whether the return of the messiah will help to rescue and restore the lost political fortunes of the party.

Thus, it can be deduced that the overwhelming probability may be for the military establishment, in view of the prevailing unfavourable political and economic circumstances, to decide not to gamble on the risky venture of holding elections in January as announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan. It may delay the elections once again for a foreseeable time and continue with the current setup.

It would take a brave analyst with Aladdin’s magic lamp to predict how these competing scenarios may unfold over the coming months, and I, for one, have no such magic lamp. One thing is certain: the next government, whatever the political colour or shape, will be determined by the high command in consultation with the American administration.

Elections or no elections, in the final analysis, they say the public will be deemed irrelevant given the present toxic political mindset gripping the country’s fate.

The author is former Lord Mayor of Bradford UK.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.