NDMA Warns of Drought Risk in Sindh, Balochistan

News Desk 

Islamabad: The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has forecast near-normal rainfall across most parts of the country over the next three to four months, along with colder nights and a gradual drop in temperatures as winter sets in.

According to NDMA’s seasonal outlook, northern Pakistan is likely to experience typical precipitation, while southern and western regions—particularly Balochistan and Sindh—may face below-average rainfall, increasing the risk of mild to moderate drought conditions.

Briefing the media, Senior Disaster Risk Assessment Specialist Dr Tayyeb Shah said that by late November, cold winds from Siberia are expected to intensify winter in northern and central parts of Pakistan.

Temperatures in the plains and southern regions are expected to remain near normal, while northern areas will experience severe cold through December. “Temperatures will gradually cool from late November onward as the Siberian High strengthens, bringing colder air into northern and central parts of the country,” he said.

Snowfall is projected to remain slightly below normal, particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with early light snow possible in October and consistent accumulation expected from mid-November through December.

Read More: https://thepenpk.com/category/climate-change/

Reduced snow cover could impact glacier health and summer water availability in 2026, though no major water shortages are anticipated due to adequate monsoon storage in reservoirs.

The NDMA cautioned that northern mountainous districts—including Kohistan, Mansehra, Swat, Diamir, Astore, Nagar, and Neelum—remain moderately vulnerable to landslides due to residual monsoon moisture and freeze-thaw cycles.

These conditions could trigger localized slope failures and temporarily disrupt transport on routes such as the Karakoram Highway and Neelum Valley Road.

The Authority stressed the importance of sustained monitoring and early warning systems along key corridors to safeguard communities and maintain connectivity.

In southern Pakistan, particularly southwestern Balochistan and parts of Sindh, continued dryness could result in meteorological drought conditions. Districts including Chagai, Nushki, Panjgur, and Gwadar have been identified as potential drought hotspots.

The NDMA advised authorities to strengthen groundwater management and promote climate-smart agriculture to protect rural livelihoods.

Smog Projection

The NDMA also warned that smog remains the most critical seasonal hazard for late 2025. From October through December, Punjab’s industrial and agricultural belt—including Lahore, Faisalabad, Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, and Multan—is expected to face moderate to dense smog episodes, with Air Quality Index (AQI) levels possibly exceeding 400 (hazardous).

Read More: https://thepenpk.com/global-warming-intensifies-extreme-rain-and-snow-study/

Smog formation is expected to intensify in November and December due to temperature inversion, calm winds, high humidity, and pollutant buildup. Urban centers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including Peshawar Valley, may also experience low to moderate smog incidents.

Authorities have been urged to strictly enforce emission controls, regulate crop residue burning, and enhance public awareness campaigns to reduce health risks and transport disruptions.

The NDMA reiterated that it will continue to monitor weather patterns closely and coordinate with provincial and district authorities to mitigate seasonal hazards across the country.