Iran’s Retaliation: What Next?

Asem Mustafa Awan

Islamabad: Iran has declared its “legal right” to retaliate following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, an act attributed to Israel amid ongoing tensions from the Gaza war.

The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, Nasser Kanani, stated, “No one has the right to doubt Iran’s legal right to punish the Zionist regime,” referring to Israel. This declaration comes as tensions in the region have significantly escalated since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict in early October.

The incident occurred last week when Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reported that Haniyeh was killed by a “short-range projectile” launched from outside his residence in Tehran. Haniyeh was in the Iranian capital to attend the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The assassination happened just hours after the killing of Hezbollah’s military chief Fuad Shukr in Beirut, allegedly by Israeli forces. These targeted killings have led to an increase in hostilities, with Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israeli forces exchanging near-daily fire since early October.

Iran’s response to Haniyeh’s assassination has been one of firm resolve. Kanani emphasized that Iran “does not seek to aggravate tensions in the region,” but stressed that “the consolidation of stability and security in the region will be achieved by punishing the aggressor and creating a deterrent against the adventurous behavior and extraterritorial terrors of the Zionist regime.”

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Iran has been vocal about its right to retaliate against what it views as aggression, and this stance has been echoed by other Tehran-aligned groups in the Middle East.

Mourners gathered at a mosque in Qatar to pay their respects, with hundreds attending the funeral prayers. The event, held at the Imam Muhammad bin Abdul Wahhab mosque, was marked by tight security, as mourners expressed their grief and anger. Qatar’s internal security forces and traffic police ensured the area was secure, reflecting the heightened tensions surrounding the assassination.

The killing of Haniyeh has incited calls for retribution and raised doubts about the ongoing viability of mediated talks aimed at ending nearly ten months of warfare between Hamas and Israel in Gaza.

The assassination has also prompted a wave of diplomatic activity. Iran has held talks with several Arab countries, including Jordan, Egypt, Oman, and Qatar, to discuss the situation.

Tehran has reiterated its “inherent right” to respond to the assassination, indicating a potential escalation in the already volatile region. This situation has raised concerns among world powers, who fear an all-out regional war could be on the horizon.

Israel, on the other hand, has not directly commented on the assassination of Haniyeh but has maintained a high level of military preparedness. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel is at “a very high level” of readiness for any scenario, both defensive and offensive. This statement underscores the gravity of the situation and the potential for further conflict.

The international community has called for restraint, with a strong emphasis on preventing further escalation. U.S. President Joe Biden expressed concern over the rising tensions, urging for a ceasefire and stressing the importance of securing peace in Gaza. The Biden administration continues to support Israel’s security against threats, particularly those emanating from Iran.

In addition to the diplomatic and military responses, there has been a notable impact on civilian safety and mobility in the region. Canada has issued a notice to its aircraft to avoid Lebanese airspace for a month due to the risk of military activity, highlighting the broader concerns about the conflict’s potential to spill over and affect international travel and security.

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The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh marks a critical juncture in the Israel-Hamas conflict, with significant implications for regional stability. As Iran asserts its right to retaliate and world powers push for de-escalation, the situation remains highly volatile.

The path forward is fraught with challenges, and the international community’s efforts to foster dialogue and support humanitarian initiatives are crucial in preventing further violence and ensuring the safety and well-being of affected populations.

The killing of Haniyeh has also disrupted the political landscape within Gaza. Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas, was instrumental in mediated talks aimed at ending nearly ten months of warfare between Hamas and Israel in Gaza.

His death has incited calls for retribution and raised doubts about the ongoing viability of such negotiations. Haniyeh, residing in Doha along with other Hamas political office members, was interred in Lusail, north of Qatar’s capital, after funeral prayers at the Imam Muhammad bin Abdul Wahhab mosque.

This incident is one among several since April that have escalated regional tensions during the Gaza war, which has involved militant groups from Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

US President Joe Biden expressed concern over the rising tensions and noted that Haniyeh’s killing had exacerbated the situation. He called for a ceasefire, stressing the need to focus on securing peace in Gaza. Biden’s administration continues to support Israel’s security against threats from Iran.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Iran’s President Pezeshkian also condemned the assassination and vowed retaliation. The international community has called for calm and a renewed focus on peace negotiations, although the path forward remains uncertain amid escalating hostilities.

The global community continues to monitor the situation closely, with calls for restraint and dialogue echoing across various platforms.However, the assassination of a high-profile leader like Haniyeh complicates these efforts, as it intensifies emotions and potentially hardens positions on both sides.

The path to peace remains fraught with challenges, and the international community’s role in facilitating dialogue and supporting humanitarian efforts is more crucial than ever.

The writer has extensive reporting experience with leading national and international media organizations. He has also contributed to reference books such as the Alpine Journal and the American Alpine Journal, among other international publications.