Heart of Asia Reimagined

Sher Ahmed Durrani

Islamabad: The shifting geopolitical environment around Afghanistan demands a comprehensive regional strategy—one that moves beyond the narrow, transactional approach often adopted by external powers, especially the United States. 

Recent statements by President Trump, highlighting an expanded role for India and issuing warnings to Pakistan, reflect an oversimplified understanding of a deeply complex regional landscape shaped by historical grievances and entrenched rivalries.

Afghanistan’s neighbors—Pakistan, India, Iran, and the Central Asian states—share a vested interest in its stability and development. Yet their relationships with Kabul remain marked by mistrust, competition, and strategic maneuvering.

Pakistan, one of Afghanistan’s most deeply involved neighbors, views the country through a national security lens. Islamabad’s fear of Indian influence encroaching on what it perceives as its strategic sphere has historically driven its engagement with different Afghan groups, complicating peace efforts and breeding resentment among Afghans.

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These tensions are further shaped by disputes over the Durand Line and the cross-border Pashtun communities who have long been central to bilateral frictions.

India, in turn, sees Afghanistan as a strategic partner through which it can counter Pakistan’s regional ambitions. New Delhi has invested heavily in Afghan infrastructure and development, especially after the fall of the Taliban. 

While these efforts are welcomed in Kabul, they heighten anxieties in Pakistan, which interprets India’s presence as a threat to its core interests. Given the long and fraught history between India and Pakistan, any cooperation in Afghanistan becomes extraordinarily complicated—often leaving Afghanistan caught in the middle.

Iran’s interests also weigh heavily on Afghanistan’s future. Sharing a long border and deep cultural and historical ties, Iran seeks to prevent the spillover of extremist groups into its territory. Tehran has backed Afghan Shia communities and developed strong economic—especially energy—partnerships with Kabul. 

Yet its deep mistrust of US involvement complicates its position as it navigates between resisting American influence and contributing to Afghan stability.

The Central Asian republics—Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—also remain invested in Afghanistan’s trajectory. Turkmenistan depends on routes through Afghanistan for its gas exports and seeks expanded regional trade links.

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Ethnic ties between Afghan Tajiks and Uzbeks and their Central Asian counterparts add another layer of interconnectedness, binding Afghanistan to the broader regional fabric.

Despite efforts to institutionalize cooperation, mechanisms such as the Heart of Asia process have achieved little due to persistent geopolitical tensions. 

A genuinely effective regional strategy must integrate economic partnerships, inclusive governance reforms, and proactive security coordination—anchored firmly in respect for Afghanistan’s sovereignty and political realities. 

This requires regional actors to abandon zero-sum thinking and instead embrace shared goals such as combating terrorism, enhancing connectivity, and expanding trade.

Beyond immediate neighbors, major powers like China and Russia are gradually expanding their influence. China’s Belt and Road Initiative envisions Afghanistan as part of its broader regional economic network, offering significant infrastructure and trade opportunities. 

Yet this deepening involvement also raises concerns among regional states wary of growing Chinese dominance. Russia, drawing on historical ties and its interest in curbing extremism, is similarly seeking to reassert itself through diplomacy and strategic partnerships.

Crucially, Afghan voices must remain at the center of any regional framework. Engaging local communities and grounding initiatives in Afghanistan’s socio-economic and cultural realities are essential for building trust and ensuring long-term sustainability. 

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Local agency enables genuine grassroots participation and helps address ethnic and regional tensions that have historically hindered progress.

Ultimately, Afghanistan’s future cannot be shaped by Washington alone. It lies primarily in the hands of its neighbors and regional powers, who—through meaningful cooperation and a shared commitment to stability—can chart a path toward a peaceful, connected, and prosperous region.

By establishing a collaborative regional architecture that acknowledges existing complexities, stakeholders can help Afghanistan emerge not as a battleground for competing interests but as a bridge for regional integration and growth.

Sher Ahmed Durrani is a senior lecturer in Political Science at the University of Loralai, Pakistan, and a PhD candidate at Quaid-i-Azam University. His research focuses on socio-political systems and sustainable development in South Asia. He can be reached at sherahmed.durrani@gmail.com.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.