Geopolitics Sends Indian Airlines on Costly Long Routes
News Desk
Mumbai: Escalating military tensions involving Iran in the Middle East have once again turned the region’s skies into a zone of uncertainty, creating significant operational and financial challenges for Indian airlines.
The situation has become even more complicated because Pakistan has kept its airspace closed to Indian aircraft since April last year, leaving airlines with very limited alternative routes to Europe and North America.
The combined impact of geopolitical tensions and restricted air corridors has disrupted flight schedules and forced airlines to rethink their long-haul operations.
According to aviation data provider Cirium, India’s two major international carriers, Air India and IndiGo, have canceled or suspended about 64 percent of the 1,230 flights scheduled to the Middle East, Europe, and North America over the past 10 days.
Aviation analysts describe the situation as a “double blow.” With Pakistan’s airspace off-limits and several sensitive routes in the Middle East considered unsafe, airlines are being forced to adopt longer and more expensive flight paths.
“This is a double whammy for Indian airlines operating on international routes, as alternative routes are both long and expensive,” said Amit Mittal, an independent aviation analyst.
Falling Profits
The financial impact is already becoming visible. Global banking and financial services firm HSBC has warned that the ongoing geopolitical tensions could place a “significant burden” on airlines’ costs and profitability.
According to the bank’s estimates, just one week of flight cancellations in the affected regions could reduce airlines’ annual pre-tax profits by as much as 1.2 percent. For an industry already operating on thin margins, the combination of longer routes, higher fuel consumption, and disrupted schedules poses a serious challenge.
IndiGo’s Complex Operational Challenges
Among Indian carriers, IndiGo appears to be facing particularly complicated operational constraints. The airline operates long-haul flights to Europe using six Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft leased from Norse Atlantic Airways.
Because these aircraft are registered in Norway, they must comply with safety directives issued by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency.
The guidelines require airlines to avoid the airspace of several Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.
As a result, the airline has been forced to reroute some flights through African airspace. Data from Flightradar24 shows that these diversions have increased flight durations by as much as two hours on certain routes.
But even these alternative paths have not been smooth. In one incident, an IndiGo flight from Delhi to Manchester had to return to Delhi after being denied permission to use the airspace of Eritrea, despite spending nearly 13 hours in the air.
The airline attributed the diversion to “last-minute airspace restrictions.”
In another case, a flight traveling from London to Mumbai had to divert to Cairo due to the same issue.
These operational disruptions come at a sensitive time for the airline. Its chief executive Pieter Elbers recently resigned following an operational crisis that had drawn public and government scrutiny in December.
Air India’s Long and Costly Detours
Meanwhile, Air India has announced plans to operate 78 additional flights between India, Europe, and the United States over the coming week to meet increased travel demand during the ongoing tensions. However, the airline is also grappling with significantly longer flight routes.
For instance, a flight from Delhi to New York City recently required a stopover in Rome, extending the total travel time to nearly 22 hours. Before the conflict, the same journey via Iraqi and Turkish airspace typically took around 17 hours.
In contrast, a flight operated by American Airlines was able to fly over Pakistan and complete the journey in roughly 16 hours, highlighting the competitive disadvantage faced by Indian carriers.
Billions in Potential Losses
The financial stakes are high. According to a report by Reuters, Air India, owned by the Tata Group and Singapore Airlines, has estimated that the closure of Pakistan’s airspace could cost the airline up to $600 million annually.
The airline, which was privatized by the Indian government in 2022, reported losses of about $433 million last year.
Longer routes mean higher fuel consumption, and the situation is being worsened by rising global oil prices triggered by tensions with Iran. Together, these factors are significantly increasing operational costs for airlines already navigating a volatile aviation market.
An Uncertain Path Ahead
For Indian airlines, the current crisis represents a convergence of geopolitical and operational challenges. With airspace restrictions stretching from South Asia to the Middle East and parts of Africa, airlines are being forced to operate longer, costlier, and more uncertain routes.
Until regional tensions ease and key air corridors reopen, long-haul flights, rising costs, and unpredictable operations are likely to remain persistent challenges for India’s aviation industry.
