Don’t Bomb the Bomb

Sher Ahmed Durrani

Islamabad: Over the past 3 days, there have been new signs of military action on the part of Israel that went against Iranian nuclear installations and hence raised the question with respect to the unstable state of Power in Middle East once again.

Such an escalation means not only raising issues regarding the short-term effectiveness of such strikes as well as highlighting the critical dangers of military actions in a nuclear setting.

The rationale behind Israel’s actions is clear: the Iranian nuclear program is viewed as an existential threat, one that could potentially arm hostile forces with nuclear capabilities. The possible outcomes of these strikes are just as critical, though, and could not be ignored.

History has shown that a military attack on nuclear facilities can result in disastrous scenarios such as unplanned breaking of radiologic contaminations that threatens the lives of civilians.

A historical parallel can be drawn to the analysis conducted by Lawrence Livermore’s Special Projects Division in 1981, which examined the risks associated with a potential Indian strike on Pakistan’s nuclear reactor.

This research supported the possibilities of mass radiation and casualties which in the end made that kind of preventive assault an exceedingly risky project. This was the same dangerous action that the Israeli attacks on Iranian bases represent, since the need to eliminate a danger might, in fact, trigger a humanitarian tragedy.

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In addition to this, the potential of Iranian retaliation creates even an additional level of complexity to the already explosive scenario. In case Iran retaliates using military means, the region might face all-out carnage with dire consequences as far as regional stability and security are concerned.

The potential for a wider conflict cannot be dismissed, especially given Iran’s established network of proxy forces throughout the region.

Of great concern to the humanitarian implications of these military operations are also very significant. An attack on any nuclear facility would cause serious injuries and health consequences to the populace since they would be exposed to large doses of radiation.

The Chernobyl memories, as well as those of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings, are eloquent reminders of the drastic outcomes that may follow nuclear accidents. We should never forget about the guilty sufferings of innocent people that end up in crossfire.

Moreover, such operations threaten to deteriorate international non-proliferation regimes. Israeli threat of military force is in danger of fueling a nuclear race by other nations weakening the international structures that were put in place to deter the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

The military interventions carry an alarming message regarding the effectiveness of dialogue and cooperation at the time when diplomatic solutions have never been more crucial than now.

In the development of the situation, it is crucial that every party should restrain and focus on diplomatic channels. The cost of failure is too high and the results of a wrong decision may be disastrous. The global community should unite to deal with the nerve worrying issues and find a non-violent solution to the nuclear dilemma in the region.

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The course which Israel has decided to take in its goal of security should be examined in this complex world of geopolitical associations. Military action might be the correct one at least in the short run, but the consequences of such a decision might be devastating.

The time has come to realize that the long-lasting peace can be sustained only with the help of dialog, understanding, and adherence to the general security.

Being caught in the turbulent waters, we should not forget that military superiority is not a true index of strength, but rather of the capacity to get into a constructive dialogue and reach binding accords that guarantee security to all countries. The world cannot afford another disaster out of the ashes of war.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.

Sher Ahmed Durrani is a senior lecturer in Political Science at the University of Loralai, Pakistan, and a PhD candidate at Quaid-i-Azam University. His research focuses on socio-political systems and sustainable development in South Asia. He can be reached at sherahmed.durrani@gmail.com.