Can Forests Save Pakistan from Climate Extremes?

APP

Peshawar: The absence of snowfall, prolonged dry spells and a sharp decline in winter rains have set alarm bells ringing across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where experts warn that Pakistan may be sliding toward desertification, drought and an earlier, more punishing summer.

This winter’s unusual dryness is more than a seasonal anomaly. Environmentalists describe it as a visible symptom of climate change compounded by decades of deforestation, land degradation and unsustainable resource use, factors that now threaten water security, food production and livelihoods across the country.

Pakistan, already ranked among the world’s ten most climate-vulnerable nations, is experiencing profound shifts in its weather patterns. Predictable winter rain and snowfall cycles, once a cornerstone of agricultural planning and water recharge, have become increasingly erratic.

“Pakistan’s seasonal rhythm has been badly disrupted,” said Gulzar Rehman, former Conservator at the Department of Climate Change, Forest and Environment. “In the past, winter rains and snowfall would start in early December and continue regularly until April. This year, the first winter rain came as late as December 31.”

Even weeks into winter, he noted, snowfall remains limited, raising the spectre of drought and accelerating desertification—especially in already fragile ecosystems.Southern Pakistan is particularly vulnerable. The region relies heavily on glacier-fed flows of the Indus River, making reduced snowfall a direct threat to agriculture, drinking water supplies, hydropower generation and winter tourism.

Although northern and mountainous areas received sporadic rain and snowfall between December 31 and January 1, large swathes of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh remain unusually dry. Data from the Pakistan Meteorological Department shows nationwide rainfall nearly 40 percent below the 30-year average, with the Pothwar region among the worst affected.

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Last year’s rainfall deficit in Malakand, Hazara and parts of northern Punjab resulted in abnormally warm January temperatures, intensifying soil moisture loss and crop stress.

“Food security is now under serious threat,” Rehman warned. “Massive plantation initiatives are no longer optional. They are essential to stabilise ecosystems, recharge aquifers and restore the natural water cycle.”

Unchecked desertification, land degradation and drought (DDLD), he cautioned, could trigger economic losses of up to $42 billion annually worldwide, while stripping nearly six million hectares of productive land each year. In Pakistan, nearly two-thirds of agricultural land and about 80 percent of arid and semi-arid regions are already considered vulnerable.Deforestation remains a compounding challenge. According to the National Forest Policy, Pakistan loses an estimated 27,000 hectares of forest annually, particularly in community-managed forests across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan.

To counter these trends, the federal government launched the Sustainable Land Management Project (SLMP) in 2014. Initially covering 12,000 hectares across nine dryland districts, the project later expanded to promote sustainable agriculture and water conservation over an additional 8,000 hectares. Phase II extended interventions to 14 highly desertification-prone districts, including Chakwal, Bhakkar, Tharparkar and Umerkot.

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Forestry officials argue that forests remain one of the most effective—and often overlooked—tools in climate adaptation.

“Forests play a critical role in influencing rainfall patterns, snowfall frequency and long-term climate stability,” said Ahmad Jalil, Chief Conservator of Forests, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. “Our strategy goes beyond tree planting. It focuses on sustainable environmental management and scientific land-use planning.”

He highlighted gains under flagship initiatives such as the Billion Tree Afforestation Programme and the 10 Billion Tree Tsunami Programme, alongside stricter action against illegal logging and institutional reforms that have strengthened forestry governance in the province.Tracing the evolution of forestry management, Jalil noted that Pakistan’s system dates back to 1867, when the Imperial Forest Service was established during the British era primarily to supply timber. Today, the focus has shifted decisively toward conservation, restoration and climate resilience.

Government-owned protected forests currently cover 0.512 million hectares, accounting for 58 percent of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s forest area, while privately owned Guzara forests span 0.239 million hectares, or 27 percent.

Yet challenges persist. The KP Forest Department faces significant manpower shortages, with only 5,228 filled positions out of 7,425 approved posts. The forest guard cadre remains critically understaffed, with 1,462 vacancies.

Despite these constraints, progress continues. “As of October 2025, 42 working plans are underway across the province,” Jalil said. “Under the 10 Billion Tree Tsunami Project alone, more than 711 million saplings have been raised, achieving over 98 percent of enclosure targets.”

As Pakistan confronts the mounting realities of climate change, experts agree that forests may be the country’s strongest natural defence—quietly restoring rainfall patterns, protecting livelihoods and offering a measure of hope in an increasingly warming world.