Pakistan’s Road Map For 2023

Mohammed Ajeeb

London: A very dear friend of mine asked me if I would write a short article sketching the economic and political challenges for Pakistan in the year 2023 and the directions the country may choose to travel to achieve its desired goals. At first, I genuinely felt that this maybe a tall order for me fearing that given the enormity of the subject matter, I may not be able to do justice to the subject in the short piece. However, I could not refuse and my humble effort is before you.

At the very outset, we must acknowledge the persistence of efforts of Pakistan and its peoples for the development of democracy since 1947, although, methods employed may have been flawed. Foremost, the ‘ping-pong’ played in Pakistan between the politicians and establishment for the acquisition of power, for nearly 70 years, could not be other than unconstitutional, unethical and unprincipled. It could only be described as abuse and misuse of power.

The history of the country in this context is that of half-hearted resistance to martial laws, betrayal of electoral confidence and compromises made with the establishment to cling on to power. The path to democracy has been further circumvented by the flagrant abuse of the Constitution and the blatant political biases in the implementation of laws concerned with the accountability of politicians and civil servants. These are actually the principal causes of the unchecked evil of bribery, nepotism and unhindered corruption.

Looting and plundering of national wealth became a permanently unaccountable practice for all and sundry, encouraging and nurturing a culture of wholesale corruption across country’s all small or large institutions.

The year 2022 saw the climax of many years of delayed and accumulated effects of maladministration, terrorism, mismanagement of economy and the failure of the hapless politicians to win over and restore the trust of people without manipulation of public, always ready to play many political cards to manipulate sentiments and emotions of the public. Therefore, 2022 was manifestation of the years of neglect, abuse of power, failures in governance and political corruption devoid of essential checks and balances.

It is against this background that we have to visualise what possible new directions the country may follow to provide some relief to the poverty stricken segment of its population who are the worst victims of the incumbent government’s ill-conceived economic policies and the volatile global politics that is universally pushing economy to further depression. Therefore, will it be possible to abate the prevalence of political unrest, instability and acrimony in the country? If and when elections are held, will the political stability be restored?

Not too long back, Pakistan was not only perceived but believed to be the epicentre of extremism and terrorism. Unfortunately the Pakistani Talban are once again attacking the security forces in the areas bordering Afghanistan in the provinces of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan and the danger for their further advances into the capital and other major cities is becoming worrying.  Would this be abated? Finally, does foreign policy of Pakistan meet the requirements of modern diplomacy in the rapid changing world?

The above are in my view, some of most important and pressing issues both for the government and establishment to seek and implement remedial measures with the view to achieving some normality and sense of hope for long suffering population and restore international respect for the country.

Being faced with heavy foreign debts, Pakistan does not seem capable of paying back its instalments to its lenders on time. Therefore, the real danger for default will continue to loom, at least for the next 2years.

The escalating cost of living due to inflation and drastic reduction in the reserves of dollars will cause unbearable hardship and misery for the low income groups and unemployed people. One wonders how Pakistan economy has been misused by the elite ruling class in the past and even now for the import of luxury goods which the country could ill afford.  The country has been led to live above its means.

How come that the country that boasts to spend trillions of dollars on the building of motorways, its public transport remains in woeful state. The volume of road traffic mainly consisting of motor cars is much higher than in some of the developed countries. A sizeable percentage of hugely big and expensive cars dose require hard earned foreign exchange firstly to import them and secondly to fill their fuel tanks, a commodity which is purchased with hard earned foreign currency. Instead, the country could focus on manufacturing and use of bicycles, motor cycles and small cars locally and increase the capacity of public transport for cheap travel.

Why should Pakistanis be lured into buying foreign made goods which are not only expensive but add further burden to already scanty reserves of foreign exchange. This is not only logically absurd and wasteful but criminal. By mending the artificial habits of the nation and directing people towards local products will augment income of the national exchequer and stop the rapid rut in the economy. Failure, in this respect could plunge the country facing default and bankruptcy sooner than many experts predict. The prospects for recovery of economy in 2023 are not promising at all.

The current state of political instability and polarisation is not expected to get better even if the elections are held before September 2023.

Of course, elections must be held to continue the process of democracy. However, the culture of intolerance of different political views further inflamed by personal abuse and enmity would require an humongous effort on all sides to restore sense and decency. The trust in the government and opposition of the electorate is fast breaking down. People are fed-up with the conduct of the politicians, being treated as if they were invisible and with being perceived and used only as the voting fodder.

At a time when all politicians are expected to pull together and intensify cooperation to repair the crippled economy, they start behaving like dogs in the manger. Hence, even if elections are held tomorrow the losers will not accept the outcome. Therefore, elections alone can’t be panacea for all the ills embedded for too long in the system.

The next year may also witness the continued anti-institutions campaign by the PTI to malign, undermine and humiliate them. IK will continue to vilify and malign his opponents but he may also face the possibility of arrest or disqualification. In this atmosphere of mistrust and hatred, it will be miraculous to see any compromises between political warring factions.

The majority of politicians seem to have lost their moral compass. Unfortunately, the battles to win the power politics will continue unless the military once again decides to usurp power. It will be unwise to rule out any of the above possibilities, therefore, these scenarios would require careful mitigation. No impossible to overcome but will require political consensus across all the major players to put the national interest first and abandon the politic of revenge.

The return of the terrorism is perhaps the biggest challenge facing government, the state and people of Pakistan in 2023.

Talban, whether Afghani or Pakistani, are Talban. To make any distinction between is to deceive ourselves. The Taliban mind-set is destructive and their beliefs are not compatible with the vision of Pakistan.

The failure of the government to deal with the resurgence of this menace will only encourage further religious extremism and civil unrest which would be extremely divisive for Pakistan that its enemies most dearly desire. Hence, Pakistan must own the problem of resumption of Taliban violence and terror, although, seemingly it is perpetrated and supported by India and Afghanistan.

Pakistan is faced with Hobson choice: it must combat terror with fistful force without any mercy and compromise. But this may not be possible because of political differences between the government and opposition whilst at the same time, a few short and narrow vision   politicians continue to harbour a soft corner for Talban. Failure to mitigate the threat of terrorism, would be another additional factor for country’s worsening law and order situation in 2023. This would require an all-party consensus which at the present is difficult to envisage.

Finally, the foreign policy of Pakistan over the last five years has been in the doldrums. The new slogan that the country must have an independent foreign policy with no external interference is just a wishful thinking. No doubt this slogan has been used by Imran Khan most successfully to convince a sizeable majority of Pakistanis by exploiting anti- America sentiments, something that he himself may not feel too convinced about.

No country can be politically independent if it is not independent economically. If Pakistan develops lopsided foreign policy, it will not work in favour of the country.

Therefore, it has to be balanced and having due regard to the changing international scene; because, if it is seen to be having unnecessary and unjustified leanings towards a certain power centre it would be  rightly interpreted and viewed as lopsided. The difficulty comes when any country fails to maintain delicate balance in international relations.

Some politicians and their supporters, in the past recent months, have accused the army establishment of being puppets and slaves of America, accusing it for not having desire to let the country become independent.  These are just empty rhetoric uttered by those devoid of reality check and would have us believe that Pakistan can afford to break relations with West by being closer to China and Russia.

These heads of political parties only advocate this style of foreign policy to capitalise on the anti-west and anti- American sentiments to maximise their popularity, just as the tool for getting votes.

Deep down in their hearts they know that no matter what radical changes are introduced to foreign policy, Pakistan’s geo-political position and status of security state cannot be changed at least in the near future. The only change which might accrue from this policy if implemented, Pakistan will have to bow to a new Master China. Such a change will not benefit either people or the country. It will simply be a matter of change of its Masters.

Pakistan should pursue its foreign policy that entails no open hostility to any nation and support all causes which are dear to humanity and moral and religious values of its peoples.

And, of course this should not even exclude India. Mr IK always reminds us that if India does not capitulate and submit to western pressures then why can’t we do the same? Either he is naive or deliberately misleading his people because he knows well that growth of Indian economy is higher than many of the developed nations.

India like Pakistan is not buried under the huge weight of foreign debts. Therefore, India can afford to be independent. However, it is envisaged there will be no significant changes in the foreign policy of Pakistan in 2023 or in the near future.

The year 2023 should be the year of positive change, of peace and mutual tolerance. But if Pakistan does not wake up to realise its shortcomings and the politicians fail to use the forum of Parliament to engage themselves in the debate and discourse to put the country first and their personal interests and egoism second,  they can easily risk sleepwalking into self inflicted disaster where no one would be able to save them.

The author is former Lord Mayor of Bradford UK.