Deal on Climate Aid Hangs in Balance at UN COP29 Summit

AFP/APP

Paris: Nations are at an impasse over a critical climate aid pact, with disagreements over funding responsibilities jeopardizing the prospects for a resolution at next month’s COP29 summit.

The UN conference is set to commence just six days after the U.S. election and is overshadowed by the potential return of former President Donald Trump, who previously withdrew the United States from the Paris climate agreement.

World leaders are expected to gather for a two-day meeting in Azerbaijan, which faces scrutiny for hosting pivotal climate talks as a petrostate with limited tolerance for dissent. Organizers anticipate over 50,000 attendees from November 11-22 in Baku.

Dubbed a “finance COP,” COP29 aims to encourage wealthy nations—historically the primary contributors to global warming—to significantly increase their financial support for developing countries addressing climate challenges.

The existing commitment of $100 billion annually is set to expire in 2025 and is viewed as inadequate for the needs of developing nations.

However, major donors, including the European Union and the United States, have yet to disclose their funding commitments, resisting pressure to provide preliminary figures. They are being urged to escalate financial support from billions to trillions at COP29, amidst a backdrop of political and economic uncertainty for many potential contributors.

Azerbaijan, strategically located between Russia and Iran, has called on participating nations to capitalize on the “critical final stage” leading up to COP29. On Wednesday, government ministers will convene in Baku in hopes of advancing negotiations.

COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev, a former oil executive and Azerbaijan’s ecology minister, acknowledged the complexity of the talks, stating, “If they were easy, they would have been resolved already.”

Observers have noted a significant absence of climate leadership this year, as extreme weather events continue to impact various regions worldwide. Current international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fall short of the targets necessary to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the safer threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement.

Jim Skea, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warned, “We are potentially headed towards 3C of global warming by 2100 if we carry on with the policies we have at the moment.”

Developing nations, disproportionately affected by climate change, are advocating for a COP29 deal that guarantees over $1 trillion annually in “climate finance”—ten times the current allocation.

They seek an agreement that encompasses funding not only for low-carbon technologies and adaptation measures but also for disaster recovery—an area developed nations have shown reluctance to support.

While industrialized countries are committed to paying as outlined in the 1992 agreement reaffirmed in the 2015 Paris Agreement, they also expect wealthier emerging economies to contribute.

Developing nations have firmly rejected this proposition, insisting that existing obligations should not be shifted to additional donors. Evans Njewa of Malawi, chair of the Least Developed Countries group, emphasized, “We should not let others turn away from their responsibility.”

The potential return of Trump is seen as a significant factor in stalling negotiations. Michai Robertson, lead climate finance negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, noted that contributors are hesitating, likely awaiting clarity on future U.S. commitments to the Paris Agreement.

To advance funding efforts, Azerbaijan has requested fossil fuel producers to contribute $1 billion for climate action, promising to make the first donation despite criticism that this amounts to greenwashing given the country’s expansion of fossil fuel production.

Campaigners, including Andreas Sieber from activist group 350.org, argue that Azerbaijan’s reluctance to address fossil fuel phase-out commitments made at COP28 in the UAE has become a concerning trend.

As the largest international event ever hosted by Azerbaijan, COP29 is under unprecedented scrutiny in a tightly controlled state described by Human Rights Watch as “repressive.”

Concerns have been raised by Amnesty International and U.S. senators regarding recent crackdowns on dissent, with independent Azerbaijani journalist Arzu Geybulla stating, “By the time Azerbaijan hosts COP29, there won’t be much civil society left.”

The summit’s profile is notably lower than the previous extravagant event in Dubai, and it remains uncertain how many world leaders will attend, with COP30 in Brazil next year seen as more critical.