Mocking The Democratic Verdict

Ishtiaq Ahmed

London: There is no hiding the fact that Pakistan’s voters delivered a powerful blow to the leadership of the PML-N and PPP at the ballot box on February 8, despite alleged vote tampering to tilt the outcome away from the PTI independents. This must be a constant source of consternation, embarrassment, and worry for the established dynastic stalwarts.

The voters’ response could be interpreted in a number of different ways: a vote of no confidence in the dynastic leadership of PML-N and PPP, or a protest vote in favour of IK/PTI. Both of these factors have apparently played their part.

It is clear that despite the attempts by the leadership of the PML-N, and, to a lesser extent, that of the PPP to castigate Imran Khan, his personal public popularity held. Even with his many contradictions, the voters seemingly took the view that he and his party were unfairly treated. One also detected voters uneasiness about the dynastic control of both major parties, increasingly resented by the younger voters, who see dynastic control an affront to the democratic principles. They voted for PTI to register their protest.

As many as 60.6 million voters voted. However, almost all provinces reported a fall in people voting compared to 2018. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa recorded the lowest turnout with just over 39 percent, followed by Punjab (51.6 percent), Sindh (43.7 percent), and Balochistan (42.9%).

The voter turnout in almost all provinces fell, partly explained by the fear of violence, public apathy, and the restrictions on the PTI. However, the highest decline was interestingly in Punjab, where the PML-N was most visible and most active.

Going forward, PML-N and PPP have joined hands to form the next coalition government, with Shehbaz Sharif being suggested for the premiership and Asif Zirdari for the presidency. This leaves Nawaz Sharif high and dry. His one saving grace seems to his daughter being installed as the Chief Minister of Punjab, the largest province. The question remains: will he stay around to provide a strong hand in the background to direct the affairs of the new coalition government by proxy, or will he return to the safety of London?

However, Imran Khan continues to maintain that he will not engage with the PML-N and PPP leadership, describing them as corrupt.

The PPP has agreed to back the PML-N-led government, having previously criticised the party for being responsible for the dire economic crisis in which the country finds itself. However, there does not appear to be any other option left for the PPP, or, for that matter, PML-N. Neither stalwarts won enough seats to form the government.

The PPP seems to have assumed a high ground by claiming that it has gone into coalition with PML-N and others to help the country come out of a dire political and economic crisis.

We must note that under the previous PDM government, also led by Shehbaz Sharif, the country saw an alarming decline in Pakistan’s economic health, teetering on the verge of bankruptcy and default. This situation was compounded by massive floods with national damage of $30 billion, displacing millions of people.

The PPP’s decision to take the presidency but not the cabinet portfolios is most intriguing. In explaining the rationale, Sherry Rehman, the vice president of the PPP, was quoted as saying, “We know whoever makes government cannot function without us. The PPP wants to give people hope in the democratic process, in parliament, and in the country.”

“Our actions to forego certain benefits and use the time and space to work on the grassroots should help people see politics less about patronage and more about bringing much-needed change to people living under severe economic and climate stress.”.

The critics of the PPP position seem to suggest that this is more about getting into a position of power without having to be answerable to the electorate. It allows them to exert influence without being held accountable.

Also, the many questions about the legitimacy of the elections could also be a deterrent to the PPP from taking on high-profile roles in the PML-N-led administration. The PPP does not want to be seen to close to PML-N by maintaining a healthy distance. Is this a political pragmatism or lack of trust in PML-N leadership or a bit of both?

Personally, I agree with the country’s other prominent analysts that the new coalition government will be an ‘ avatar’ of PDM.

However, Zardari and Shehbaz, both ‘Mr. Fixers‘, as president and prime minister, would be full of intrigue. Constitutionally, the president is the head of state. This puts Zardari in a very powerful position. Also, knowing that Shehbaz will need the PPP’s support on almost all things in the National Assembly gives Zardari a powerful hand in the government. In my estimation, Zardari is a more shrewder politician, and with all the cards in his hand, he would be a certain winner around the table, but let us not underestimate Shebbaz.

Let’s wait to see how the cards may play out.

The author is a British citizen of Pakistani origin with a keen interest in Pakistani and international affairs.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.