WTO: AI Could Boost Global Trade by Nearly 40% by 2040

Kazinform/APP

Astana: The World Trade Organization (WTO), in its new World Trade Report 2025, says artificial intelligence (AI) could significantly reshape the global economy.

According to WTO projections, by 2040, overall trade in goods and services may grow by 34% to 37%, while global GDP could rise by 12% to 13%, Kazinform News Agency reported.

The fastest expansion is expected in digitally delivered services, including AI tools themselves, which in WTO models are projected to increase by nearly 42%.

However, the report stresses that these gains are not guaranteed and will depend on investment in digital infrastructure, market openness, and the coordination of rules for data flows among countries.

The WTO modeled several scenarios based on how quickly lower- and middle-income countries expand their digital infrastructure.

In the baseline scenario, advanced economies see the largest benefits, with incomes rising by about 14%. Middle-income countries are projected to grow by 11%, while low-income countries gain only 8%.

If poorer economies accelerate digital infrastructure development, their gains could improve significantly — reaching 11%, and under a scenario of widespread AI adoption, as much as 15%.

In that case, growth for advanced and middle-income economies would level out at around 14% each.

To assess the global landscape, the WTO developed the AI Trade Policy Openness Index (AI-TPOI), covering 108 economies. The index measures how far national trade policies either support or restrict access to AI services, goods, and cross-border data flows.

The study found that middle-income countries tend to impose the strictest barriers, mainly on digital services and data movement.

Tariffs on AI-related goods also vary widely — in some low-income countries, they reach as high as 45%, effectively slowing access to new technologies.

The report highlights data as the key resource driving AI. Its analysis shows a clear link between digital services trade and the cross-border exchange of knowledge.

A 10% increase in trade in digital services is associated with a 2.6% rise in cross-border references to AI patents. However, fragmented rules on data flows risk slowing progress by limiting access to cloud services and training datasets, both of which are essential for building robust AI ecosystems.

AI adoption is expected to bring moderate shifts in employment. Real wages are projected to rise across all worker groups, while the gap between high- and low-skilled employees may narrow by 3% to 4%.

Job growth, however, will not be even: employment for low-skilled workers could increase by 3% to 4%, compared with only 1% to 2% for medium- and high-skilled workers.

Many advanced economies have already announced large-scale plans to build data centers and AI infrastructure, but poorer nations continue to struggle due to limited financial and energy resources.

The energy demands are also immense — major AI hubs can consume 100 megawatts or more, roughly equal to the annual electricity needs of 100,000 households.

Earlier, Kazinform News Agency reported that world merchandise trade is projected to grow by 0.9% in 2025.