World Racing Toward Post-Fossil Future, Says IEA

News Desk

London: The world is moving faster toward a post-fossil fuel era than previously expected, with renewable energy set to grow at an unprecedented pace despite political resistance in the United States and parts of Europe, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest annual report.

The Paris-based watchdog forecasts that more renewable energy capacity will be installed globally in the next five years than was built in the past four decades combined. The surge, driven largely by cheap solar power and rising global demand for electricity, underscores what the IEA describes as the “inevitability” of the energy transition.

According to the report, renewables will meet nearly all of the projected 40% increase in electricity demand over the next decade — fuelled by the rapid uptake of electric vehicles, clean heating and cooling systems, and power-hungry artificial intelligence data centres.

The IEA also noted a “renaissance” in nuclear power, spurred by technology companies seeking stable, low-carbon electricity for data infrastructure. It estimates that global investment in data centres will reach $580 billion in 2025, overtaking the $540 billion projected for oil supply.

Despite policy reversals by the Trump administration and calls to expand drilling, the agency concludes that the transition away from fossil fuels is irreversible. “No single country can stop the energy transition,” said David Tong of Oil Change International, urging leaders at the upcoming UN COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, to reject “Donald Trump’s dystopian future” in favour of a “fast, fair, and funded fossil fuel phase-out.”

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The findings are expected to strengthen the case for countries advocating a tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030, a goal first agreed upon at COP28 in Dubai.

However, the report also reflects mounting political pressure. US Republicans have reportedly urged the IEA to present a more favourable outlook for the oil and gas industry. In response, the agency reintroduced a “cautious scenario” that assumes slower progress in electric vehicle adoption and continued fossil fuel consumption.

Energy experts, however, see that scenario as increasingly detached from reality. Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember, said: “Renewables and electrification will dominate the future – and all fossil-importing nations will gain the most by embracing them.”

Even in regions like the Middle East and Asia, the IEA projects an unprecedented expansion of solar capacity. In contrast, the report notes that the United States could see 30% less solar power by 2035 than forecast last year, following the Trump administration’s withdrawal of support for clean energy incentives.

“The evidence on the ground is overwhelming,” Jones added. “EV sales are booming, solar power is spreading even across oil-rich regions, and fossil fuel-dependent economies are racing to cut costs and enhance energy security.”

Mariana Paoli of Christian Aid called on wealthy nations to use COP30 to end fossil fuel investments and scale up climate finance. “The fossil fuel era is ending, but governments are still dragging their feet,” she said. “Oil and coal are peaking, renewables are surging — yet public money continues to flow into projects the IEA itself says we don’t need.”

The report concludes that while the pace of the transition may vary across regions, the global direction is clear: renewables are reshaping the energy landscape faster than ever before, making the peak of oil demand not a question of if, but when.