A Nation in Search of Balance & Stability

Muhammad Ajeeb 

Bradford: A nation truly exists only when it is bound together by a shared sense of identity and a willingness to accept and appreciate the diversity of those who inhabit it. Without this, it is merely a stretch of land, large or small, held together by geographical accident or political force, and maintained more by coercion or expediency than by unity of purpose.

Such nations are inherently fragile. History bears witness to this, as countries across the world have splintered, some after prolonged struggle, others through relatively peaceful means.

As citizens of a country that has already endured brutal dismemberment and continues to face deepening socio-political polarisation and rising ethno-nationalist tensions, Pakistan ought to have learned to be especially vigilant of these dynamics. Unfortunately, it appears that it has not.

The short but turbulent history of Pakistan is filled with pivotal events, crises, and transformations. 

Since its establishment in 1947, the country has experienced: the first fragile 11 years of democracy; the military coup of 1958; the devastating disintegration and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971; the fall of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1977; General Zia-ul-Haq’s vaguely defined and ultimately unsuccessful Islamisation project; the restoration of democracy in 1988; and the fourth imposition of martial law in 1999 under General Pervez Musharraf, who ousted Nawaz Sharif and forced him into exile in Saudi Arabia. 

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After Musharraf’s decade-long undemocratic rule, the PPP formed a civilian government in 2008, followed by a PML-N government in 2013. What followed thereafter is well-known to all. In essence, Pakistan has continually oscillated between brief periods of civilian rule and extended eras of military dominance.

However, I argue that the seeds of political intolerance were sown in the earliest days of the country’s existence. The suppression of political opposition and denial of fundamental freedoms has been a consistent thread, difficult to refute.

In my view, many of Pakistan’s post-independence woes stem from the persistent failure of successive regimes to dismantle the feudal power structures that have rendered the masses incapable of independent political thought. 

Furthermore, the perpetuation of a centralised and authoritarian model of governance has stifled the institutionalisation of politics and contributed to the rise of ethno-nationalist sentiments in minority provinces.

This style of governance can be traced back to the colonial British Raj, where the vice-regal system of patronage toward landlords and tribal chieftains was deliberately structured to control and marginalise the general populace. 

Unfortunately, these traditions remain deeply embedded in Pakistani politics today. For instance, the imposition of a centralised authority such as mandating Urdu as the national language without accommodating the linguistic and cultural diversity of smaller provinces, has only reinforced perceptions of Punjab’s hegemony over the rest of the country.

Pakistan has, thus far, failed to embrace and respect diversity. Compounding this internal fragility is the country’s geostrategic location, which has heightened perceptions of external threats, particularly from hostile neighbours, fueling an enduring sense of insecurity among both the ruling elite and the general public.

The Kashmir dispute has long been the focal point of conflict between Pakistan and India. However, recent developments such as the four-day skirmish and India’s unilateral abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty have further deepened the hostility between the two nations. Any prospect of improved bilateral relations appears bleak unless these critical issues are addressed.

Since its inception, Pakistan has sought to foster national unity on the basis of religion rather than through the inclusion and accommodation of its diverse regional cultures and traditions. This has severely hampered the development of a cohesive national identity. Reflecting on the country’s past, it is evident that Pakistan has suffered from both myopic and corrupt civilian and military leaderships, and from a confused, inconsistent political environment. It has consistently failed to reach a consensus on a singular political system that could be permanently adopted and refined.

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Given these entrenched problems, it is difficult to predict Pakistan’s future with any certainty. Historically, Pakistan has shown a troubling tendency to accept, and even submit meekly to, military rule with minimal resistance to repeated coups since 1958. This has led to a public psyche conditioned to accept undemocratic changes with indifference or even tacit approval.

Such apathy suggests a dangerous complacency and a lack of willingness to agitate for meaningful political reform. Having transitioned from a hybrid democracy to what can be described as a garrison-style state, the current political landscape seems to enjoy widespread, if reluctant, acceptance from most major political parties. The people, it seems, have come to terms with the status quo.

Meanwhile, global political dynamics are shifting rapidly. New alliances are being forged to protect the economic and geopolitical interests of powerful nations. The world is becoming increasingly selfish, volatile, and economically unstable, posing significant threats to international peace and order. 

The decline of American global dominance appears imminent, while China is positioning itself to assume the role of a superpower.

During this transitional era, Pakistan’s geostrategic importance will remain vital for competing global powers. As a gateway to Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, it will continue to attract attention from both the United States and China. 

However, India will persist as a major threat, especially under the continued rule of the BJP-RSS alliance, whose hard-line Hindutva ideology is fundamentally irreconcilable with Pakistan’s worldview.

In this context, Pakistan must be cautious in its dealings with global actors. For example, Donald Trump’s overtures toward Pakistan should not be taken at face value. His track record reveals him to be an unpredictable, unreliable, and authoritarian figure with a fascist-leaning mind-set. Pakistani policymakers, both civilian and military, must remain vigilant against his frequent political reversals and erratic behaviour.

Looking ahead, I see no significant deviation from the current garrison-style governance model in the near future. The PTI has been largely emasculated as a political force, while other parties seem content to remain subservient to the military establishment. 

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There is a distinct possibility that the current system may become a permanent feature of Pakistani political life.

Relations with Afghanistan are likely to improve, but cross-border terrorism will continue to be a source of instability. China’s growing influence in Pakistan will likely act as a deterrent to Indian ambitions of regional dominance. By 2047, Pakistan may succeed in stabilizing its economy. However, a controlled form of democracy may well become the accepted norm.

In conclusion, the future of Pakistani politics remains difficult to predict due to the country’s complex geopolitical environment and history of political inconsistency. What is clear, however, is that unless Pakistan confronts its internal contradictions, dismantles its entrenched power structures, and fosters a culture of inclusion and reform, the same patterns of stagnation and crisis will likely persist.

The author is a former Lord Mayor of Bradford UK.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.