US Election: When Will We Know Who Won?

AFP/APP

Washington: As Americans head to the polls on Election Day Tuesday, election officials are urging patience, with expectations that it could take several days to determine the winner of a tightly contested presidential race.

Under the U.S. electoral system, citizens vote to elect members of the Electoral College, which then selects the president and vice president. Each state’s Electoral College votes go to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state. Larger states, with more congressional representation, have more electoral votes at stake.

This year’s race pits Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris against Republican former President Donald Trump, both aiming for the crucial 270 Electoral College votes needed to secure victory.

With the race expected to be especially close, experts warn that delays and complications, including potential legal challenges, could slow down the final tally. As of Monday, over 81 million Americans have already voted early, representing more than half of the total votes cast in 2020.

The first polls will close at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time (2300 GMT), but given the tight nature of the race, it may take days for news outlets to project a winner. In 2020, it wasn’t until Saturday, November 7, that Democratic candidate Joe Biden was officially declared the winner, despite polls closing the previous Tuesday.

Counting methods vary across the U.S., with each state responsible for processing and tallying its votes.

Many states now allow mail-in or overseas ballots to be prepared ahead of Election Day, though some battleground states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, have not made such changes. In these states, where mail-in ballots cannot be processed until November 5, the count could be further delayed.

In closely contested states, the potential for recounts could add additional time to the process. While media outlets may call races based on preliminary results, these projections are not official until each state certifies its results.

Certification must be completed by December 11, and electors from each state will formally cast their votes for the candidate who won the popular vote.

By December 25, each state’s electoral certificates must be sent to the President of the Senate, who, as Vice President, will oversee the final tally. Congress will formally count the votes on January 6, and the new president will be inaugurated on January 20.

However, experts are warning that the certification process could face obstacles. In 2022, at least 22 county election officials in battleground states voted to delay certification, marking a nearly 30 percent increase from 2020.

Additionally, 35 election officials have refused to certify election results in the past and could attempt to do so again this year, raising concerns about potential delays in meeting state and federal deadlines.

Since the contentious aftermath of the 2020 election, in which former President Trump refused to concede, the certification process has become a focal point of partisan contention.

Election integrity advocates are closely monitoring the situation, fearing that any successful obstruction could disrupt the orderly completion of the election process.