Trump’s Return Tests Pakistan
Asem Mustafa Awan
Islamabad: With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Pakistan is preparing for a period of strategic recalibration in its bilateral relations with the United States. Historically, Trump’s approach has been pragmatic and rooted in a security-focused agenda.
This suggests that U.S.-Pakistan interactions under his leadership will likely revolve around issues such as counter-terrorism, nuclear stability, and strategic cooperation that align with American security objectives.
Unlike previous Democratic administrations, which have incorporated a more comprehensive view involving human rights and economic aid, Trump’s policies are expected to take on a more transactional nature.
This could manifest in engagements that are driven by mutual strategic interests rather than broader diplomatic cooperation. For Pakistan, this might mean a shift toward cooperation that is primarily security-oriented.
Strategic balancing amid US-China rivalry will be a significant challenge for Pakistan that will be navigating its relationship with the U.S. amid increasing tensions between Washington and Beijing. Pakistan’s close economic partnership with China, highlighted by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), may come under scrutiny.
Analysts suggest that a Trump-led administration may press Pakistan to reconsider certain aspects of its collaboration with China or, at the very least, diversify its strategic partnerships to balance U.S. interests in the region.
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This focus could place Pakistan in a tight position, having to maintain a diplomatic balance between Washington and Beijing. With Trump’s administration likely aiming to counter China’s growing influence in South Asia, Pakistan might face increased diplomatic pressure to align more closely with U.S. strategic interests.
This could include reassurances regarding nuclear security and counter-terrorism initiatives that align with U.S. policies.
Impact on regional power dynamics is another area where Trump’s presidency may affect Pakistan is in its regional interactions, particularly with India. Trump’s administration has historically maintained strong ties with India, viewing it as a key partner in countering China’s rise.
This pro-India stance may lead to increased competition for influence in the region, with Pakistan having to adjust its foreign policy accordingly.
While Trump has previously hinted at a willingness to mediate in the Kashmir dispute, it remains uncertain whether such overtures will translate into actionable diplomacy, especially in an environment where U.S.-India relations remain a priority.
Former Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed from Pakistan has expressed optimism about Trump’s unconventional nature, suggesting that his presidency could potentially offer Pakistan a unique opportunity to engage with the U.S. outside of traditional security establishment norms.
The senator highlighted that Trump’s willingness to discuss mediation in Kashmir and his detachment from the conventional American security apparatus could foster a less biased, more constructive dialogue with Pakistan.
However, this positive outlook must be balanced against potential U.S. policy shifts that could prioritize strategic alignment with India over diplomatic balance.
Middle Eastern policy and its effects on Pakistan with Trump’s firm stance on Iran is another factor that could impact Pakistan.
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If his administration resumes or intensifies confrontational policies toward Tehran, Pakistan might find itself in a difficult position, given its historical and cultural ties to both Iran and Saudi Arabia. An escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions could ripple through the region, exacerbating sectarian divides and complicating Pakistan’s counter-terrorism strategies.
This pressure could push Islamabad to adopt a clearer stance aligning with U.S. Middle Eastern policies, potentially at the expense of its neutral regional approach.
Focus on counter-terrorism and nuclear security in the Trump-led administration is also expected to maintain a strong emphasis on counter-terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation.
The U.S. might seek to bolster security collaborations with Pakistan, focusing on intelligence-sharing and coordinated efforts to combat terrorism. Trump’s transactional style may mean that assistance or cooperation comes with conditions tied to broader U.S. strategic goals, such as supporting efforts to contain terrorism and regional stability.
Trump’s primary focus is likely to be security-based, economic ties that could also see subtle shifts. The U.S. might explore trade deals or partnerships that align with its broader strategy in South Asia, potentially incentivizing Pakistan to engage in economic collaborations that align with American interests. This could present opportunities for Pakistan to leverage its strategic position while navigating external pressure related to its partnership with China.
Trump’s return to the Oval Office signals a period of potentially impactful change for U.S.-Pakistan relations. Experts believe that while the emphasis will likely remain on counter-terrorism, nuclear stability, and strategic alignments, Pakistan’s response will be crucial.
The extent of U.S. engagement may hinge on Pakistan’s approach to balancing its partnership with China, its regional security stance, and its willingness to align with U.S. policies in the Middle East.
Senator Syed’s hopeful remarks point to the potential for a fresh chapter in U.S.-Pakistan diplomacy, characterized by direct and possibly less establishment-driven interactions.
However, the real test will be how Islamabad navigates its foreign policy in response to Washington’s evolving expectations, ensuring that it maximizes its strategic interests while maintaining essential ties with China and addressing domestic priorities.
The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.
Asem Mustafa Awan has extensive reporting experience with leading national and international media organizations. He has also contributed to reference books such as the Alpine Journal and the American Alpine Journal, among other international publications.
