Trump Announces Ceasefire Between Iran and Israel, But Uncertainty Remains

Ishtiaq Ahmed

Bradford: US President Donald Trump announced on his social media platform that a comprehensive ceasefire has been agreed between Israel and Iran. His statement, characteristically dramatic and somewhat ambiguous, read:

“It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in-progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World.”

At the time of writing, neither Iran nor Israel has formally confirmed the agreement. Trump’s announcement follows a sharp escalation over the weekend, after which Iran launched missiles at a US airbase  in Qatar in retaliation for American airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The U.S. strikes drew widespread condemnation from the international community, including from several European leaders.

Iranian state media have described Trump’s post as merely a “claim,” suggesting caution on part of Tehran.

According to diplomatic sources, Qatar played a key role in facilitating the proposed ceasefire. After Iran’s strike on the U.S. base in Qatar, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani reportedly engaged with both Iranian officials and American intermediaries.

Reuters reported that Trump personally brokered the deal in a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Israel agreeing to a ceasefire as long as Iran refrains from further attacks. Tehran has reportedly indicated that it will do that.

NBC News adds that Trump also reached out to the Emir of Qatar, asking him to influence Tehran. U.S. National Security Advisor Vance then coordinated with Qatar’s prime minister to help bring Iran on board.

Trump, who often relishes media attention, was quick to publicize the ceasefire on social media, but the language of his announcement left room for confusion. He implied that both sides would be allowed to finish their ongoing operations before the ceasefire takes effect in staggered phases.

This raises questions about whether the ceasefire might temporarily apply to only one side at a time, creating the possibility of further strikes before the truce is fully in place.

Domestically, Trump is facing criticism from both Democrats and some Republicans over the legality of the strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Lawmakers such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders have condemned the action as unconstitutional.

However, legal scholars point to Article II of the US Constitution, which designates the president as commander-in-chief, allowing for the use of military force under certain conditions, particularly in response to actual or anticipated threats. The Trump administration has cited nuclear non-proliferation as its justification.

If the ceasefire does hold, it would be a welcome relief to a region on edge. However, it leaves several critical questions unanswered: Will Iran agree to scale back or halt its nuclear programme as part of the deal?

How would such a move be perceived by the Iranian public? And what are the implications for Iran’s relationships with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Qatar?

Some analysts suggest that this brief but intense conflict may have been orchestrated, at least in part, to serve broader geopolitical objectives: enhancing Israel’s strategic position in the region, providing Iran with a diplomatic off-ramp from its nuclear ambitions without appearing to capitulate to US pressure, and reasserting American influence in the Middle East more so on Iran.

For countries like Pakistan, the ceasefire offers a moment of respite, allowing them to avoid being drawn into a potentially broader regional conflict.