The Gaza Conundrum

Asem Mustafa Awan
Islamabad: In recent weeks, the Middle East has once again found itself plunged into a vortex of violence and turmoil, with the Gaza Strip serving as a focal point for a tragic and ongoing conflict.

Israeli attacks have resulted in the loss of thousands of Palestinian lives, raising serious concerns about the trajectory of the situation. The alarm bells rang louder when a temporary cease-fire agreement was not extended, prompting a resumption of hostilities and further complicating an already delicate scenario.
What is particularly disconcerting is the response from major global powers, notably the United States and the United Kingdom, who have chosen to defend Israel’s actions instead of actively advocating for a cease-fire.

The involvement of these nations goes beyond diplomatic support, as they are providing financial aid, defence equipment, and weapons to Israel, casting a shadow over their role in the ongoing conflict and prompting speculation about potential ulterior motives.
The situation has prompted experts to explore the notion of a potential conspiracy to instigate a world war.

Adding to the complexity is the presence of forces in Lebanon, Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, which could potentially align to support the Palestinians against Israel. The continued hostilities underscore the fact that Israel’s objectives, whatever they may be, have not been realised yet.
Israel attributes the latest outbreak of hostilities to Hamas, the Palestinian militant group governing the Gaza Strip.

In response, Hamas argues that its actions are a direct consequence of the blockade of the Gaza Strip, the expansion of illegal Israeli settlements, and an increase in violence from Israeli settlers. The international community’s failure to fully comprehend and address Hamas’ position has resulted in heightened tensions, causing distress among over two billion Muslims worldwide.
Diplomatic efforts by international bodies such as the United Nations, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and China have proved ineffective, leaving the conflict at an impasse and intensifying fears that the unrest could extend beyond the borders of Gaza.

There are three potential flashpoints that demand special attention, each carrying the risk of further escalation: Hezbollah in Lebanon, the powerful Lebanese militia and political party Hezbollah, closely aligned with Iran, could engage in retaliatory attacks. Such actions could potentially draw Iran and the United States into a broader and more perilous conflict.
In addition to Hezbollah, other groups operating in Syria and Iraq could target US forces. This, in turn, may escalate into a larger conflict involving Iran and the United States.
The West Bank and Israeli-occupied territories remain contentious areas, especially with ongoing attacks by Jewish settlers that are tacitly tolerated by the Israeli government. This volatile situation could open up a new war front.
While both Iran and the United States express reluctance for a major war, the rapidly evolving developments on the ground pose a significant risk of regional escalation.

The lack of a multilateral security organisation in the Middle East to manage crises further exacerbates the situation, emphasising the urgent need for diplomatic initiatives that can avert the catastrophic consequences of an all-out regional war.
Historical precedents such as the Helsinki Accords after World War II, which helped establish stability in Europe, underscore the need for a similar framework in the Middle East.

A multilateral security arrangement could provide a platform for regional actors to formally accept the existing geopolitical landscape, potentially offering a guarantee for the rights and security of all involved parties, including Palestine.

Without such an arrangement, the Middle East relies heavily on external parties, such as the United States, to manage regional crises, creating a real risk of catastrophic regional conflict.

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