The Endless Swing of Pak–US Ties
Shazia Mehboob
Islamabad: Since its inception in 1947, Pakistan has maintained a complex relationship with the United States — one marked by alternating cycles of cooperation and conflict.
In the early years, Pakistan positioned itself alongside Washington during the Cold War, joining US-led security alliances such as CENTO and SEATO in the 1950s. Islamabad viewed these partnerships as both a strategic counterbalance to India and a means to secure military and economic assistance.
For the US, Pakistan’s geographic position made it a valuable ally in containing Soviet Union influence in South and Central Asia. Yet, this partnership was never immune to geopolitical shocks.
The mid-1960s and early 1970s brought some of the first major fissures. Pakistan’s wars with India in 1965 and 1971 tested American reliability in the eyes of Islamabad. US reluctance to fully back Pakistan in 1965, and especially during the 1971 crisis that led to the creation of Bangladesh, sowed deep mistrust.
By the late 1970s, US suspicions over Pakistan’s nuclear program led to aid suspensions. However, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 radically shifted US priorities.
During the 1980s, Pakistan emerged as Washington’s key partner in arming and training Afghan mujahideen, marking one of the closest phases of bilateral cooperation — though driven more by strategic necessity than shared values.
This period also laid the groundwork for the rise of the Taliban, with Pakistan later facing both internal instability and persistent external accusations of state-sponsored terrorism, particularly from India.
The post-Cold War decade brought another cooling-off period. The US imposed sanctions after Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998, signaling that proliferation concerns outweighed strategic engagement.
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The September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States once again redefined Pakistan–US relations. Almost overnight, Pakistan became a frontline ally in the US-led “War on Terror,” securing billions in military and economic assistance in exchange for counterterrorism cooperation against al-Qaeda and the Taliban.
Yet, even amid heightened cooperation, mistrust ran deep. Nothing underscored this more than the May 2, 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. The unilateral US raid, conducted ‘without Pakistan’s consent’, triggered national outrage and reinforced public perceptions that Washington had little regard for Pakistan’s sovereignty.
Later that year, a NATO airstrike mistakenly killed Pakistani soldiers on the Afghan border, prompting Islamabad to close NATO supply lines for months.
US drone strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas further deepened resentment, with Islamabad accusing Washington of overstepping while Washington accused Pakistan of selectively targeting militants.
Declassified US documents later underscored the depth of mutual mistrust that had persisted throughout the alliance.
Even as security cooperation continued, particularly in counterterrorism and intelligence sharing, the relationship remained precarious. Successive US administrations have alternated between praise for Pakistan’s cooperation and criticism over its alleged tolerance of certain militant networks.
In turn, Pakistan has argued that US expectations are unrealistic and insensitive to its domestic security and political constraints.
Economic and trade relations offer a relatively steadier, though modest, channel of engagement. The US is among Pakistan’s largest export markets, especially for textiles and apparel, with bilateral goods trade estimated at around $7.3 billion in 2024. This economic link, while important for Pakistan’s struggling economy, has not been leveraged into broader strategic stability.
High-level diplomatic visits have punctuated this history, sometimes signaling rapprochement, other times serving as damage control.
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From President Eisenhower’s visit in 1959 to George W. Bush’s trip in 2006, these engagements have often been overshadowed by larger strategic developments.
More recently, Secretary of State visits, including Mike Pompeo’s 2018 effort to “reset” relations and renewed exchanges in 2024–2025, show that both sides remain willing to keep lines of communication open, even when trust runs low.
Ultimately, Pakistan–US relations have been defined less by enduring strategic trust and more by a partnership of convenience, shaped by shifting geopolitical priorities rather than consistent principles.
The two countries have repeatedly aligned when their interests converged, only to drift apart when those interests diverged.
While there have been periodic upswings — such as warmer ties under President Trump, marked by the resolution of a tariff dispute and US interest in Pakistan’s oil and mineral sectors — these moments have remained transactional in nature.
Emerging areas of cooperation, including potential collaboration in cryptocurrency trade, may influence the next phase of engagement.
However, the real challenge lies in moving beyond this cyclical, interest-driven pattern toward a more predictable and transparent framework. Without such a shift, the relationship is likely to remain a geopolitical rollercoaster, oscillating between alliance and alienation depending on the demands of the moment.
Shazia Mehboob is a PhD scholar and a visiting faculty member. She is also an investigative journalist and the founder of The PenPK.com. She tweets @thepenpk.
Shazia Mehboob’s article presents a concise yet comprehensive historical overview of Pakistan–US relations, tracing their trajectory from 1947 to the present. Her analysis frames the relationship as a cyclical partnership of convenience rather than one rooted in enduring trust.
She highlights how the alliance has repeatedly shifted between cooperation and estrangement depending on converging or diverging strategic needs — from Cold War security pacts, through the Afghan jihad of the 1980s, to post-9/11 counterterrorism cooperation, and later periods of sanctions, drone strikes, and diplomatic friction.
Notably, she underscores key turning points such as:
The 1965 and 1971 wars with India, which bred mistrust.
The 1980s Afghan war, which deepened security ties but sowed seeds for later instability.
The 2011 Abbottabad raid and NATO airstrike, which symbolized sovereignty tensions.
Her treatment of trade and economic engagement is important — showing that while the US is a major export market for Pakistan, this economic link hasn’t translated into strategic stability. She also points to emerging sectors (like cryptocurrency) as potential, though uncertain, areas for future cooperation.
Overall, her conclusion is clear: without a deliberate shift toward a predictable, transparent, and principle-based framework, the relationship will remain a “geopolitical rollercoaster” — swinging between alliance and alienation with the changing demands of global politics.