Salient Factor of Voter Turnout

Manoj Kumar Lohana

Lahore: Have you ever questioned why we have not been able to establish true democracy? What may be the causes and reasons for this? Why from the very first prime minister to the present one, has the nation been able to increase and widen the citizens’ participation in the ballot?

These are important questions but the answers to these may not be easy to come by or may be difficult to stomach because it involves self-examination by the electorates of how we discharge our responsibility.

To be ruthlessly honest, we haven’t always been true to ourselves and our collective share of responsibility for advancing our participation in the affairs of our nation. Exercising our basic voting right is the very first but most important step in the election of those with the mandate to represent and advance our individual and collective interests as prime ministers, MMNs, and MPAs. The fact that only 50.55 percent of eligible voters cast their votes is a serious anomaly and should be a cause for concern for us all. People turning out to vote is what is termed as  “voter turnout,” in the political science jargon.

‘Voter turnout is one of the significant pointers to the involvement of citizens in the governance of their country.  A higher ‘voter turnout’ is usually associated with the vitality of democracy, whilst a lower turnout is generally understood as the indifference and distrust of the political process by the citizens. Because of its significance, the civil society and the democratic support community get worried when the voter turnout is low. For this reason, elaborate efforts are made across different parts of the globe to under what factors motivate or demotivate electorates to turnout and exercise their vote.

The electorate turnout is about the extent to which the qualified (registered) electors utilize their vote at the ballot on voting day. It approximates the number of votes cast including the number of invalid ballots. The term qualified ‘electorates’  amongst other things,  is determined by two key considerations: first, the number of enrolled electors as validated by the appropriate authorities charged with the responsibilities for establishing and maintaining electoral records; and secondly, the voting age population (VAP), which is a gauge of the extent of a country’s populace that is of voting age.

There are two fundamental reasons for applying the registered electorate records and VAP  to quantify the number of qualified electors. Firstly, in circumstances where electorate registration information is either erroneous or inaccessible, the VAP can provide a useful indication and secondly,  the VAP  can provide a clearer indication of those eligible to vote and should be voting and those registered to vote.

In Pakistan, every election has shown disparity between the registered voters and those of voting age clearly suggesting that many people were denied political expression throughout the period, resulting from the lower voter registration numbers.

Due to problems with voter registration from 1977 to 2018, VAP calculations are a relatively more reliable method for assessing citizen participation in Pakistan. The use of VAP gauges that a vast part of the population couldn’t enlist to vote, for example, 28 million individuals could not enlist for the 2013 general decisions in Pakistan.

Even though the VAP figure can often provide a wholesome estimate of qualified citizens, it does not tell anything about people’s perceptions and interests. This is more so the case in developing nations. However, some of these countries may have reliable voter registration systems.

In 1985, when Muhammad Ziaul Ha re-enacted the election process,  the voter turnout was less than in the previous two elections.  Zia had backed Muhammad Khan Junejo, who although being a lesser of a known political figure before the election, actually won. The voters had anticipated the outcome of the elections thus so no point in coming out to vote.  The voter turnout was also low until 2013 but other variables also came to influence the participation throughout that time.

Voter turnout is influenced by multiple factors, for example, demographics, weather, political culture, political awareness, ballot confidentiality, institutional impediments, international developments, voter registration, compulsory voting, easing of the voting process, and cultural attitudes.

High turnouts in military dictatorship regimes are often coerced and not necessarily an indication of a dictator’s popularity. We saw a larger turnout during the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2002 when his referendum was supposed to have received 100% participation. Likewise, when voter turnout is less, it doesn’t mean that it’s indignant of the candidate but could be due to a range of factors, for example, the distrust of the voting process, whether or general malaise and apathy because of personal circumstances.

The author is a business student and a freelance journalist.