Rising Population: A Constraint On Resources, A Menace To Survival

Wraa Noor

Islamabad: Neither prophecy nor rocket science is required to understand the alarming fact that Pakistan is destined to collapse under the weight of its own population.

Any attempts at reform or progress in Pakistan are analogous to constructing sandcastles on the beach, only to have them destroyed by the unrelenting tsunami of our rogue populace.

Pakistan’s resources are entirely inadequate to provide 241.499 million (241,499,431) people with food, housing, healthcare, education, protection, or employment. This number is growing at an alarming rate of 2.55 per cent per year, or 17,435 new arrivals every day. This necessitates the construction of 620 hospitals and an additional 20805 schools annually.

We are simply fooling ourselves by denying the fatal path that we follow, given that there are no schools for the existing 25 million children and 12 million of them are engaged in child labour.

No official bothered to look into how Bangladesh was able to lower its total fertility rate (TFR) from 6.9 in 1970 to 1.93 in 2023 while Pakistan continues to blindly stay at 3.2.

Do our ruling elite not realise the remarkable advancements made by nations like China, South Korea, Singapore, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Finland, Norway, and a host of others? – all have a TFR that is significantly lower than 2.0.

Is Pakistan fated to always be a backward, medieval and depraved nation? Will we keep producing swarms of zealots who are unruly, ignorant, and whose sole ideology is hatred and burning and demolishing places of worship? Recent events in Jaranwala on August 16 are but a small reflection of a larger picture of our deteriorating, unchecked and unmanaged reproductive behaviours.

Nothing prevents Pakistan from adopting the population management strategies employed by Iran and Bangladesh. Bangladesh significantly increased access to educational opportunities, particularly for girls, and saw a rapid decline in fertility, from over 6.5 births per woman to 3.3 births in the last two decades, which is indeed a historic record in demographic transition.

Pakistan may also easily redefine its current Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) program as an incentive for females who obtain education until the age of 18 and couples who limit the family to two children, as opposed to producing political beggars.

Additionally, involving clerics to advocate for family planning and include it in their Friday sermons could have a beneficial effect on family planning outcomes.

No measures to check our runaway population can succeed if our National Finance Commission (NFC) award for distribution of funds to provinces is itself the greatest motivation for producing more children. The current ratio of 82 percent of funds being distributed on the basis of population is irrational and ought to be reduced to 50 percent.

Reducing population growth rate and improving social development indicators must be incentivised by allocating 10 percent of funds to provinces for decreasing TFR, 7 percent for reducing out-of-school children, 5 percent for compliance on the minimum wage and the Employees’ Old-Age Benefits Institution (EOBI), 5 percent for access to clean water, sanitation, and sewage treatment, and 5 percent for the elimination of child labour.

Despite its many difficulties, Pakistan is on the verge of great opportunities. It has always been hindered by visionless leadership, yet a turnaround is still entirely feasible.

The country’s rational and progressive citizens, who must band together to contribute energy and ideas to fight for the country’s urgently needed reforms, are increasingly responsible for fulfilling this obligation.  The political elite must take innovative steps to address this dormant issue that jeopardizes the country’s very existence.