Political Tug of War In Punjab

Asem Mustafa Awan

Islamabad: Following the submission of a no-confidence motion by the Pakistan Democratic Alliance against Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the political pundits are gauging the pulse of the ongoing battle between the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) and PTI.

Governor Balighur Rehman has written a letter to the chief minister, asking him to take a vote of confidence from the Assembly. The Punjab government is considered a major obstacle in the way of PDM’s political dominance. In order to remove this obstacle, a minority government of the PML-N was formed in April-May 2022 after the Usman Buzdar government was sent home by a no-confidence motion.

PTI switched sides to form Hamza Shehbaz’s government. Those involved in voting for Hamza were later disqualified in a court ruling and the by-elections on their vacant seats were again won by the PTI.

Punjab Assembly Speaker Sibtain Khan has declared the governor’s letter calling the meeting of the Provincial Assembly illegal. While refusing to issue the gazette notification of the meeting, the Speaker has submitted that the meeting of the assembly is already in progress and, therefore a new meeting cannot be called on the advice of the governor.

According to the governor, Pervez Elahi has lost the confidence of the majority of the House; therefore, under Article 130 (7) of the Constitution, he is calling a meeting of the Punjab Assembly on December 21 (Wednesday) at 4 pm.

PDM is collecting its cards in the no-confidence motion. On the request of the PML-N, the Lahore High Court has given a decision to suspend the participation of the 18 members of the Assembly of the PML-N, who were deprived of the right to attend 15 meetings as a punishment by the Speaker for rioting and vandalism.

The Muslim League-N’s lawyer made the point before the Supreme Court that these 18 members have to exercise their right to vote during the no-confidence motion on December 21, so they should be allowed to attend the meeting.

After the court verdict, PML-N’s focus has shifted to persuade PML-Q members and Pervez Elahi to end their alliance with Imran Khan. In case Pervez  Elahi continues to support Imran Khan, the PDM leaders have arranged a plan B.

Consultations are going on between Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, fomer president Asif Zardari and other senior leaders of the PDM. Most of the consultations are being done with Chaudhry Shujaat and his son, Chaudhry Salik. Since Chaudhry Shujaat is the head of Muslim League-Q and the brother of Pervaiz Elahi, PDM wants to achieve its goals through him.

If the parliamentary party of PML-Q in the Punjab Assembly maintains its decision to maintain an alliance with PTI, then the attempt by PML-N to pass the no-confidence motion will fail. This movement can only be successful when the members’ are bought and sold, their allegiances are switched.

The PML-N claims that they want to save the assembly from dissolving. The PDM fears that if the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa assemblies are dissolved, new general elections will have to be held in the country.

The writer is a journalist based in Islamabad and writes on a wide range of issues.