Pakistan’s Quest for Survival

Mohammad Ajeeb

London: The fever, uproar, and commotion of the elections in Pakistan are over now, and the new government is in motion.

However, going forward, the country remains surrounded by many uncertainties, including continued political instability and polarization. The hybrid system of government, more than ever, remains under the influence and control of the powerful establishment.

The new government is a coalition of three old political parties who, in the past, have been the worst enemies of each other. This forced marriage of convenience would be beset by uncertainty, challenges, and unseen risks in the coming months and years.

The PTI of Imran Khan, presently the largest party with overwhelming support from the electorate, is facing mighty wrath and is not expected to restore its confidence with the top hierarchy of the establishment, at least for the next 2–3 years.

But the PTI, in opposition, will continue to attack and derail the new government setup and will remain a thorn in the side of Shehbaz Sharif as long as he remains in power.

Asif Ali Zardari, being the cleverest and most shrewd politician amongst all others, has secured the honor of being elected to the position of President of the country for the second term without his party being an active partner of the PML-N government.

He is a far-sighted politician and has learnt the skills of working amicably with the establishment better than the Sharif family. While Nawaz Sharif declined the offer of his party to nominate him for the position of prime minister because of the disappointing election results of his party and the gradual deterioration in his personal health, he was, in the view of many political observers, politely rejected by the establishment for his track record.

Shehbaz Sharif, his younger brother, is well-known for being loyal and obedient to the establishment and is regarded as a more tamed and safe choice than his elder brother.

Nawaz Sharif’s political future looks uncertain and precarious. The PML-N as a political entity seems to be facing a serious threat of further divisions in its ranks and files and could be at risk of becoming defunct and irrelevant politically before the end of the current parliamentary term.

Asif Ali Zardari, while occupying the chair of the Presidency for the next 5 years, has already set his eyes and mind on his son Bilawal’s dream to become the next Prime Minister of Pakistan.

On the other hand, the government of Shehbaz Sharif is going to have a tough time, at least for the next three years, if it survives for this long.

The formidable task of recovering the totally shattered economy, which would require a comprehensive shakeup and revamping, is not going to be an easy task.

The inevitable spiraling of unaffordable prices of essential commodities, particularly energy, gas, and imported goods, along with increasing political and social tensions, growing polarization, and somewhat dented foreign relations with the perpetual escalation in terrorist activities both on the western border and in Balochistan, are some of the major problems that will require urgent attention and firm actions to ameliorate the anxiety and fear of the people.

Most of these issues will have to be tackled within a timeframe decided by the IMF. There will be no alternative to escaping or fob off the IMF from this heavy burden of responsibilities.

The formation and implementation of foreign policy have always been the prerogative of the establishment to have greater influence and say in the process.

Maintaining a balance in foreign relations would also be tricky for Shehbaz, particularly with Pakistan’s neighbors and especially with the USA versus China.

Pakistan’s policy of dependence on America is not supported and appreciated by the public. This can be partly attributed to the political awareness created in the last 3 years, particularly among the middle-class youth, and partly to the extremely ruthless and despicable role played by America in the Middle East and more recently in Palestine.

This has fueled the temper of the whole nation with anger and hatred against America. For this pent-up anger, the government would have to provide some kind of outlet because failure in this respect may cause further polarization in the country.

Furthermore, on the home front, the pledge to strengthen legislation to empower local government, made with the MQM, may not be supported by the PPP.

Obviously, the PPP would be anxious not to loosen its grip on Karachi, the largest city, the economic hub, and politically strategic to the party’s political ambitions. This could become a source of serious friction, leading to the PPP withdrawing its support from the government.

This would complicate and add to Shehbaz’s vulnerability. Additionally, Shehbaz Sharif, with not enough allies in KPK, will be under constant pressure from the Chief Minister, Ali Amin of Gandapur, who is well known for his threatening and bullying behavior.

There are several other visible and invisible issues of intriguing nature that will require the government to stealthily deal with care and diligence. The foremost issue is that of the national economy.

Grievously, all successive governments since the creation of the country in 1947 have dismally failed to manage the economy, with agricultural policy in tatters.

The economic status of the poor, peasants, small landholders, and the labor class has remained static for many decades, not helped by the uncontrolled baby boom and youth unemployment. Add to the nation’s foes the crumbling health care system and dysfunctional primary education.

Mitigating these challenges would require a substantial part of the budget being set aside for these priorities, which the country does not have or is committed to in other areas.

However, the currently available funds available to the government are not even enough to pay the salaries of its employees, but in spite of the depleted government coffers, the new government is extravagant, appointing a huge army of ministers and advisers with lots of unnecessary and unjustified perks.

The judges and police chiefs are being awarded incredibly fat salaries and facilities that were not available even to British administrators during the British Raj for similar positions. Such decisions by the government are contemptuous of constitutional leeway. This waste of national resources needs to stop with immediate effect.

Inherently, Pakistan continues to be ruled by the feudal classes, wealthy families, industrial elites, and army generals. They have gone about their business of serving themselves without scrutiny and accountability.

They have always regarded themselves above the laws of the land. For them, the paybacks and the evasion of taxes have become norms and not exceptions.

Consequently, the entire system of governance is riddled with corruption and bribery. The gap between the fabulously rich and the poor has massively widened rather than narrowed.

The powerless have become more powerless, and the powerful have become absolutely more powerful.

The successive governments have turned a blind eye to the extravagant excesses of the rich and privileged classes who live in excluded enclaves with their over-the-top lifestyles, going around in their expensive imported motor cars to impress their financial status with utmost pomposity.

Interestingly, Pakistan does not indigenously produce these vehicles. The imported vehicles are expensive and heavy on fuel, and hence, in order to meet the demand, Pakistan imports fuel. All this has to be paid in foreign exchange in dollars, which the country does not have.

It is therefore not surprising that the inept leaders go around with a begging bowl to the western institutions, thus compromising the country’s interests, dignity, and standing.

The fact remains that Pakistan as a nation has lived above its means with borrowed money, and the rich and wealthy refused to pay due taxes with arrogance and contempt. One also wonders about the wisdom of the so-called political dons who are so keen to build motorways but refuse to give attention to improving and promoting public transport for the majority of the population.

Therefore, if the present government does not drastically impose a moratorium on the revenue cost of running the government and lavish spending on imports of all foreign goods to appease and please the rich and wealthy, the country may not survive economically for the foreseeable future.

Of course, life-saving items that cannot be produced, like pharmaceutical products, can continue to be imported even though many developing countries are now self-sufficient in the production of generic medicines.

The government must impose restrictions on the provision of free transport for its ministers, top civil servants, and MNAs, reduce the size of cars to no bigger than 1400cc, and encourage the public to use smaller cars, motorcycles, and bye-cycles.

This can help the country reduce pollution and save on foreign exchange. The local industry should be incentivized to set up plants to manufacture such products.

Already, the delaying tactics used over the past many years to defer the privatization of PIA and steel mills have cost the country billions of dollars.

The main reason for indecisive action in this respect has been the fear of losing the political support of those who were employed in these industries by the then-political parties in power. This is a living testimony of our politicians’ disloyalty to their country when their personal and political interests overcome the nation’s overall interests.

The present government is composed of almost all old and tested individuals with suspected electoral wins. Their past performance has been disgracefully inept, contributing to the country’s present economic precipice.

Hence, how it would be possible for this collection of inept, notorious, and unpopular individuals to bring any miraculous results to revive the economy and regain the trust of people is beyond many.

The country, which is already divided across the board, may not be able to withstand and absorb the pressures of increasing costs of energy, fuel, and living for too long, and the worsening situation may culminate in further social unrest.

One of the consequences of the general public’s disenchantment with the appointed government could be the chaotic end of it.

Despondency, gloom, malaise, slump, and stagnation are still lurking around the widths and lengths of the country. In the absence of any viable and competent leadership, political, economic, and social frustration will grow, as will instability and further chaos.

Therefore, the current concocted and planted government may not be able to absorb expected and unexpected shocks due to its feeble and hatched make-up. There is no guarantee that it will survive its full term of five years.

In the last analysis, the role of the disfranchised segments of the population together with angry youth may be decisive in shaping the future of the country with new directions, which may ultimately lead the country to an era of democracy, peace, and prosperity.

BUT this will require leadership of high caliber and moral scruples, along with exceptional political acumen and prudence, the ability to devise clear strategies and plans, and, above all, the unshakeable democratic mindset to save the nation from slipping into unknown territory.

The author is former Lord Mayor of Bradford UK.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.

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