Pakistan’s Population to Peak at 404 Million by 2092: UN

APP

New York: A key UN report has placed Pakistan, whose current population is over 245 million, in the group of countries whose population is expected to increase through 2054 and potentially peak in the second half of the century or later.

According to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report, Pakistan’s population is projected to peak in 2092 at 404.68 million people. By 2048, Pakistan’s population is expected to surpass that of Indonesia, reaching 331.29 million.

Between 1998 and 2017, Pakistan’s average population growth rate was 2.40%, translating to an annual increase of about 5.28 million people.

With one of the highest birth rates at 22 births per 1,000 people, Pakistan faces significant pressure on water and sanitation systems, potential unemployment, and overwhelming health and education systems. The report noted that very few women in Pakistan use birth control.

Since gaining independence in 1947, Pakistan’s population has increased significantly due to improved stability attracting families and businesses.

The report highlighted that Pakistan’s growth rate is about 2.1 percent higher than other countries in the region. If the current growth continues, Pakistan’s population could double what it was in 2001 within 35 years.

Although the current growth rate is close to 2 percent, it is expected to halve to less than 1 percent by 2050, by which time the population will exceed 300 million.

The global population reached nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024 and is projected to grow by another two billion over the next 60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before declining to about 10.2 billion.

This figure is 700 million lower than expected a decade ago. The demographic landscape is evolving, with some regions experiencing rapid growth and others rapid aging, making reliable population data increasingly important, according to the UN sexual and reproductive health agency (UNFPA).

The report, published to coincide with World Population Day, emphasized the need to use population data to address the needs of marginalized groups. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres highlighted the importance of accurately counting everyone to ensure progress for all.

The 28th edition of World Population Prospects (WPP) by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) provides demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024, with projections up to 2100. This data is crucial for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals, as about a quarter of the indicators rely on it.

Globally, fertility rates are dropping, with women having one child fewer on average than they did around 1990.

In more than half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1, the level required for a population to maintain a constant size.

Nearly a fifth of all countries, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, have “ultra-low fertility” rates, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.

As of 2024, the population has peaked in 63 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, and the Russian Federation, and the total population of this group is projected to decline by 14% over the next thirty years.

The average age of the global population is increasing, with the number of people aged 65 or older expected to surpass those under 18 by the late 2070s.

This shift is due to increased life expectancy and decreased mortality rates, with over half of global deaths projected to occur at age 80 or higher by the late 2050s, up from 17% in 1995.

While slow growth or population decline is occurring mainly in high-income countries, rapid growth will continue in low- and lower-middle-income countries, particularly in Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, and Somalia.

These countries’ populations are projected to double between 2024 and 2054, increasing demand for resources and exacerbating environmental impacts.

In countries such as India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, populations are also expected to grow through 2054 and potentially peak later in the century.

Secretary-General Guterres emphasized that women’s sexual and reproductive health and rights are vital for sustainable development.

Early pregnancies remain a challenge in low-income countries, with 4.7 million babies born to mothers under 18 in 2024, including 340,000 to children under 15.

Investing in education, especially for girls, and delaying marriage and childbearing will improve women’s health, educational attainment, and labor force participation, contributing to sustainable development and ensuring no one is left behind.