Pakistan Sweeps Tosses, Frustrates South Africa on Tour

News Desk 

Faisalabad: “Don’t know what’s going on in this country,” South Africa’s stand-in captain Matthew Breetzke quipped — half in jest — after losing yet another toss in Faisalabad on Thursday. For the second successive ODI, Breetzke called “tails.” Once again, the coin came down “heads.”

It’s become a curious subplot of South Africa’s ongoing tour of Pakistan: no matter who leads the team, the toss keeps going Pakistan’s way. From Aiden Markram in the Tests to Donovan Ferreira in the T20Is and now Breetzke in the ODIs, every South African captain has walked away from the toss empty-handed.

Pakistan’s Shan Masood, Salman Agha, and Shaheen Shah Afridi, on the other hand, have won all eight tosses across formats — six captains over seven games, all with the same result.

While the toss might seem trivial in cricket’s increasingly data-driven age, it remains one element no analyst or coach can control. There’s no formula to predict heads or tails, and yet, statistically, the toss does hold a slight edge.

Of the 7,356 men’s international matches played before Wednesday, teams winning the toss have also won 5,058 times — a marginal advantage of 2.34% over those who lost it. The effect varies by format: a 4.72% difference in Tests, 0.71% in ODIs, and just 0.39% in T20Is. The longer the game, the more the toss tends to matter.

That was evident in the first Test of this tour, when Pakistan’s decision to bowl first on a sharply turning pitch in Lahore proved decisive. South Africa were bowled out cheaply in both innings, with 34 of 40 wickets falling to spin, as Pakistan cruised to a 93-run win.

Read More: https://thepenpk.com/pakistan-win-toss-opt-to-bat-first-against-south-africa/

In the second Test, played on a fairer surface in Rawalpindi, South Africa hit back strongly, chasing down 68 runs to seal an eight-wicket victory. Spinners still dominated the match — taking 28 of the 32 wickets — but the balance between bat and ball was restored.

Ahead of the ODI series, South African batter Ryan Rickelton dismissed the idea of scrapping the toss altogether — a suggestion once trialed in England’s county circuit. “It’s the cornerstone of Test cricket,” he said. “Teams play to their strengths and their conditions. It’s their right at home. We’ve got to rise to the occasion regardless of the toss.”

But South Africa’s coin-toss misfortune is not new. Between September 2019 and January 2020, they lost nine tosses in a row — their worst streak to date. Then-captain Faf du Plessis even brought Temba Bavuma to call in his place during a Test in Ranchi. “Tails,” Bavuma said. “Heads,” came the result. “All we can do is smile,” du Plessis laughed afterward.

India hold the world record for the most consecutive lost tosses — 15 straight across formats earlier this year — yet they managed to win 12 of those matches, a testament to their depth and adaptability.

South Africa, however, haven’t been as lucky in Pakistan. Despite Quinton de Kock’s unbeaten 123 off 119 balls in Faisalabad — his 22nd ODI century and first in over two years — the visitors have only managed three wins in seven matches on this tour.

If Breetzke loses yet another toss in Saturday’s third and final ODI, it will mark Pakistan’s clean sweep of nine consecutive coin calls — a streak for the record books. But as South Africa’s eight-wicket win on Wednesday showed, nothing erases a poor toss record quite like victory itself.