Pakistan-India Diplomacy at Crossroads

Shazia Mehboob

Islamabad: As Pakistan prepares to host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2024, the meeting of the Council of Heads of Government offers an opportunity to assess what this gathering could mean for the strained relations between Pakistan and India. 

The summit, attended by the heads of government from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, alongside Iran’s First Vice President and India’s External Affairs Minister, presents a critical juncture for regional diplomacy and cooperation.

At the heart of the SCO’s unique structure is its representation of nearly 40 percent of the global population and 32 percent of the world’s GDP. This massive constituency provides immense human and economic potential, yet this potential remains underutilized due to geopolitical tensions, particularly between Pakistan and India.

This summit in Islamabad is a golden opportunity for both countries to address not only their bilateral differences but also to take stock of the pressing challenges that affect millions across the region, such as food insecurity, climate-induced non-traditional security risks like food security and water crisis exacerbated by rapidly melting glaciers due to global warming.

Both Pakistan and India have much to gain from this summit, especially in terms of economic and environmental cooperation. The SCO summit’s focus on trade, environmental issues, and socio-cultural exchanges should be seen as a crucial opportunity for these two rivals to explore collaboration on issues that affect their collective populations.

Together, China, India, and Pakistan represent a significant portion of the world’s population and GDP, making cooperation imperative for regional stability and growth.

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India, the world’s most populous country, China, the second, and Pakistan, the fifth, are home to vast human resources. Yet, both Pakistan and India continue to lag in effectively harnessing this potential due to their deep-rooted political and military rivalry.

This leaves their populations as raw human resources—underdeveloped and underutilized in the global economic race. Unless these two neighbors rise above their hostilities, this vast human resource pool could become a ticking time bomb, exacerbating crises related to food security, urban migration, infrastructure failure, and public health.

The interdependence between Pakistan and China, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), offers an illustrative example of what can be achieved through cooperation. CPEC, a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has already contributed to Pakistan’s development in energy and infrastructure.

The potential benefits of such collaborative projects should not be lost on India and Pakistan. Instead of perpetuating military build-ups and escalating tensions, Pakistan and India could explore areas of economic cooperation that would benefit both nations.

Unfortunately, trade between Pakistan and India remains crippled, particularly since 2019, following the Pulwama terrorist attacks and India’s Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act. 

A 2018 World Bank report suggested that trade between the two nations could be 18 times higher than pre-2019 levels. The fact that both countries rely on costly “indirect imports” through third-party countries, such as the UAE, highlights the missed opportunities for direct trade and economic integration.

Beyond economic benefits, both nations face common security threats, such as terrorism and regional instability. Cooperation on counter-terrorism initiatives through platforms like the SCO could help foster security interdependence, which would create room for dialogue, build trust, and reduce tensions.

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Cultural exchanges, often sidelined in the tense political atmosphere, can also play a vital role in bridging divides. Historical migration patterns and the substantial diaspora communities in both countries form a social interdependence that is difficult to ignore. Cultural connections, particularly through art, literature, and sports, have the potential to soften political hostilities and strengthen people-to-people ties. 

This, in turn, could influence political sentiment in both countries, pushing leaders toward peaceful engagement rather than military posturing.

Diplomatic engagement through multilateral platforms like the SCO remains one of the most viable paths forward for both Pakistan and India. These forums offer a rare space for dialogue on pressing regional issues such as climate change, economic development, and counter-terrorism.

For Pakistan and India, leveraging the SCO’s platform could help both nations move beyond the hostile rhetoric of surgical strikes and hybrid warfare to focus on shared regional challenges.

In the broader framework of interdependence, as articulated by theorists Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye, the complex ties between Pakistan and India—economic, political, and social—could ultimately contribute to conflict resolution. Both nations stand to gain strategic benefits from enhanced mutual trade and cooperation, which could help stabilize the fragile peace and lay the groundwork for a more durable, peaceful future.

The SCO summit presents a vital opportunity for Pakistan and India to rethink their relationship. Instead of focusing on their historical enmity, both nations should seize the moment to explore avenues for cooperation that would benefit their populations and contribute to regional stability. 

If they do, the SCO could prove to be more than just another diplomatic gathering—it could be a turning point for South Asia.

Shazia Mehboob is a PhD scholar and a visiting faculty member. She is also a freelance journalist and the founder of The PenPK.com. You can follow her on Twitter @thepenpk.