Pakistan: A difficult terrain ahead  

Shazia Mehboob Tanoli

After Sunday’s surprising political developments, whoever becomes the next prime minister of Pakistan will face humongous internal and external challenges.
Internally, the new prime minister and his team would inherit some deep rooted economic and social challenges.
The economy, already burdened by the huge foreign debts, has suffered two further blows: firstly, by the world wide Covid-19 epidemic, from which it really had no time to recover from and, secondly, the political uncertainty and the growing chasm between the political protagonists at home.
The present incumbent government did not have a moment to breathe easily during its tenure and this would also be the case whoever comes in next. The task of healing the political rift, rejuvenation of the economy, realignment of civil and social infrastructure are huge challenges awaiting ahead.
Externally, but closer to home, the deterioration of relations with India over the Kashmir dispute and the constant threat of skirmishes on the control line, the uncertainty of Taliban controlled Afghanistan and the isolation of Iran at the behest of America.
I also throw into this melting pot the intense rivalries between the Russians, the Americans and the Chinese for world domination and influence. These rivalries have multiplied many folds following the invasion of Ukraine. The new government would almost be required to reconstruct and balance its foreign policy to mitigate this difficult and hazardous terrain.
Rising militancy, poorly performing economy and shaky ties with former allies, including the US, will be another great challenge for the next government whatever leaning providing that elections are allowed to take place as announced. otherwise the country of over 220 billion will be pushed towards political, economic and security instability.
The incoming prime minister and his team will need to see off multiple challenges on domestic and foreign fronts.
The fragile economy, crippling debt, feeble currency and high inflation and unemployment have combined to keep the growth rate of the country stagnant for the past three years.
Therefore, a radical policy of reforms is needed to turn the economy around.
The debilitating inflation is taking its toll on the national economy and driving up the cost of living for individuals’ families. Over 12 percent inflation rate with $130 billion debt and the declined value of Pakistani rupees during the past three years is a huge challenge which cannot be underestimated.
The relations with Washington are at a low ebb. The next government will have to work extra hard to patch up deteriorating relations.
The incumbent PM angered the West by his visit to Moscow at the time of Russian invasion of Ukraine. Also, he was one of the few world leaders to attend the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics when others boycotted in protest at China’s human rights record.
The possible resurgence of militancy inside Pakistan by the Islamist cells affiliated to the Taliban government is also of a major concern.
Although the Taliban government says that it will not allow the country to be used as a base for foreign militants, it remains to be seen if they will genuinely put a stop to the activities of thousands of Pakistani Islamists sheltered there. However, this will remain a big and crucial issue for the new government.
The unrest in Balochistan is another difficult terrain ahead for the next government. A multi-prong approach will have to be adopted to control the situation and build political reconciliation.
The most critical challenge would be to heal the rift between all the provinces and bring them into a federal unification setup. This would require restoring political, economic and social equilibrium, which provinces like Baloachistan are missing in the federal approach.

The writer is a journalist based in Islamabad and a PhD aspirant.