‘Pakistan No Longer Sees US as Neutral Actor in Strategic Dynamics’

News Desk 

Islamabad: Pakistan no longer perceives the United States as a neutral actor, with its strategic alignment with India being a significant factor in this shift, argued Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad.

His argument followed the presentation of the British American Security Information Council’s (BASIC) assessment regarding third-party involvement in South Asian security dynamics.

The SPIR hosted a delegation from the BASIC, London, for an insightful session titled “Nuclear Crisis Management and Trust-Building.”

This event brought together nuclear security experts to discuss BASIC’s report, “Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia: Mutual Confidence, Risk, and Responsibility,” which outlines policy recommendations from a multiyear research project evaluating confidence between India and Pakistan through Track 1.5/2 dialogues.

D Jaspal emphasized the need for Pakistan and India to manage their nuclear tensions without external intervention. He critiqued the ongoing reliance on third-party mediation, attributing it to the influence of internationally educated civil-military elites. 

Jaspal noted that arms control has fallen out of favor and disarmament is no longer on the table, stressing the necessity for both nations to take responsibility for managing their nuclear arsenals.

The BASIC report highlighted the importance of strengthening bilateral confidence-building measures (CBMs) and examined why, despite conventional conflicts, India and Pakistan have avoided nuclear escalation. Nicholas J Wheeler discussed the 2019 Pulwama incident, illustrating how both countries managed to engage conventionally without triggering a nuclear response. 

The report suggested that this restraint stems from mutual confidence in avoiding nuclear retaliation, although it warned that this confidence is fragile and lacks formal structures. It called for institutionalized mechanisms to manage tensions effectively.

Mhairi McClafferty, a Policy Fellow at BASIC, expanded on the theme of fragile mutual confidence and the role of chance in preventing nuclear conflict. 

She recommended establishing a South Asian Security Confidence Arrangement (SASCA), creating a hotline between the leaders of India and Pakistan, enhancing CBMs, and fostering media-driven de-escalation narratives.

Discussing the need for a reliable hotline, Dr Jaspal recounted an incident during the Pulwama exchange when Prime Minister Imran Khan was unable to reach the Indian Prime Minister due to a lack of dependable communication, underscoring the urgency for a consistent connection between the two nations.

Dr Nicholas J Wheeler added that one key reason for avoiding large-scale conflict is both countries’ ability to manage tensions in a manner that allows them to save face.

 Dr Chiara Cervasio, also a Policy Fellow at BASIC, emphasized that face-saving strategies were central to the decisions made by both India and Pakistan to de-escalate.

In response to a student’s question, the BASIC delegation clarified that the portrayal of South Asia as a volatile nuclear flashpoint is exaggerated. Their research indicates resilience in the region’s nuclear management, yet they underscored the need for more robust CBMs and dialogue-based frameworks to ensure ongoing stability.

The session, moderated by Dr Summar Iqbal Baber, Assistant Professor at SPIR, fostered lively interaction between the panelists and attendees, offering valuable insights into nuclear crisis management and the necessity for trust-building to prevent future conflicts in South Asia.