January Smashes Heat Record, Surprising Scientists

AFP/APP

Paris: Last month was the hottest January on record, surpassing the previous high and shocking climate scientists who had expected cooler La Niña conditions to ease the prolonged heat streak.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that January was 1.75°C hotter than pre-industrial times, continuing a persistent trend of record-breaking temperatures in 2023 and 2024 due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

Unexpected Warming Amid La Niña

Scientists anticipated that the extreme heat would subside following the peak of El Niño in January 2024 and the transition to a cooling La Niña phase. However, the record temperatures have persisted, sparking discussions on potential additional warming factors.

Every fraction of a degree in warming intensifies heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, experts warn. January 2024 was 0.09°C hotter than the previous record in January 2023, a significant rise in global climate terms, said Julien Nicolas, a climate scientist from Copernicus.

“This is surprising… we are not seeing the expected cooling effect or temporary break in global temperatures,” Nicolas told AFP.

Climate expert Stefan Rahmstorf from the University of Potsdam emphasized the unprecedented nature of the warming, stating:

“For the first time, temperatures recorded during a La Niña period have surpassed those of a preceding El Niño. Over the past 60 years, all 25 La Niña Januaries have been cooler than surrounding years.”

Weaker La Niña & Ocean Heat Concerns

This year’s La Niña is expected to be weak, and Copernicus noted that equatorial Pacific temperatures indicate a stall in the cooling trend, with La Niña potentially disappearing by March.

Last month, Copernicus reported that global temperatures in 2023 and early 2024 had exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. While this does not mean a permanent breach of the Paris Climate Agreement’s target, it signals that the limit is being tested.

Experts predict that 2025 will rank as the third hottest year, following 2023 and 2024. Copernicus is closely monitoring ocean temperatures, as oceans play a crucial role in climate regulation and heat absorption.

“The heat stored in oceans will periodically resurface,” said Nicolas.

“This could explain the persistent high temperatures over the past two years.”

Sea surface temperatures in 2023 and 2024 have been exceptionally warm, with January recording the second-highest readings ever.

“The puzzle is why they remain so warm,” Nicolas added.

Unanswered Questions & Theories

Experts are divided on why global temperatures remain exceptionally high despite the emergence of La Niña.

Bill McGuire, a climate scientist from University College London, called the continued record-breaking heat “astonishing and frankly terrifying.”

Joel Hirschi, from the UK’s National Oceanography Centre, warned against overanalyzing a single month’s data, as record warmth has historically followed El Niño phases even after La Niña begins.

Scientists agree that fossil fuel emissions are the primary driver of long-term warming, but natural variability can also influence year-to-year fluctuations.

One theory suggests that a 2020 shift to cleaner shipping fuels may have reduced sulphur emissions, weakening cloud reflectivity and allowing more sunlight to reach Earth’s surface. A peer-reviewed study in December examined whether a reduction in low-lying clouds contributed to the warming.

“These factors must be taken seriously and remain open areas of investigation,” said Robert Vautard, a leading scientist with the UN’s climate expert panel (IPCC).

The EU climate monitor relies on billions of data points from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations dating back to 1940, while additional evidence from ice cores, tree rings, and coral skeletons helps extend climate records even further.

Scientists believe that the current warming period is the hottest the Earth has been in the past 125,000 years.