Is PTI’s Long March More Significant Than Past Protests?

Shazia Mehboob

Islamabad: The federal capital, Islamabad, has become the epicenter of the November 24 protests, with heightened efforts to disrupt and suppress them.

On one side, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is mobilizing thousands of supporters from across the country. On the other, the government is intensifying its measures, employing roadblocks, crackdowns, and arrests to prevent the demonstrations.

Despite threats, detentions, and strict security measures, PTI workers remain resolute in their mission to make the November 24 protests a success. While PTI demonstrations are not new, many observers view this one as a potentially defining moment in Imran Khan’s political trajectory.

Political tensions in Islamabad have reached a boiling point. Reports suggest PTI supporters are cautiously entering the city, while Islamabad police have significantly increased efforts to block the protests. Section 144 has been imposed, and heavy police deployment, along with strategically placed containers, has been set up to curtail the movement of protesters.

This PTI long march is being regarded as more significant than previous ones, primarily due to its timing. The protest follows closely on the heels of Bushra Bibi’s court release and Imran Khan’s bail in the Toshakhana case 2. 

Within Pakistan’s political circles, there is growing speculation about the possibility of a deal between PTI and influential factions in the country, fueling debates and raising questions about the march’s broader implications.

Imran’s Bail: A Turning Point?

When asked about the latest developments, PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry stated that Imran Khan’s bail represents a pivotal moment, delivering a strong message of hope to PTI supporters.

He noted that this development has reignited a sense of determination and enthusiasm among both party workers and the general public.

Consequently, Chaudhry believes that extraordinary efforts to mobilize the masses are no longer necessary, as people are now eager to take to the streets independently.

What Does PTI Want, and Is It Achievable?

PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry has pledged to bring over 40,000 supporters to Islamabad for the November 24 long march, asserting that the government will not be able to thwart the protest. He stressed that PTI will not retreat until its demands are fulfilled.

According to Chaudhry, the party’s key objectives include the repeal of the 26th Constitutional Amendment, the restoration of democracy and the constitution, the return of the “stolen mandate,” and the release of all “innocent” political prisoners.

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Meanwhile, political analysts suggest that offering immediate relief to key PTI leaders—such as Yasmin Rashid, Ijaz Chaudhry, Mahmood ur Rashid, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, and particularly Imran Khan—could significantly ease tensions. Such actions, which are within the government’s capacity, might serve as an initial step toward broader negotiations on the remaining demands, potentially preventing further escalation.

Does the Government Have a Mandate?

Dr Mujeeb Afzal, a political analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations at Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, has highlighted the government’s lack of a concrete package to present to PTI for negotiations.

He noted that with court cases against PTI leaders still pending, the government is unable to offer any significant relief, particularly as the unresolved May 9 cases involve the establishment.

Dr Afzal pointed out that PTI Chairman Imran Khan has repeatedly expressed his willingness to negotiate directly with those in power, bypassing the government.

He further explained that accepting PTI’s demands would essentially amount to the government admitting its own illegitimacy—a risk it appears unwilling to take at this stage.

The remarks come amid growing political tensions, with PTI gearing up for its November 24 long march, which is being viewed as a critical moment in the ongoing political standoff.

Will PTI Postpone the Protest if a Breakthrough Occurs?

PTI leaders have indicated that meaningful progress in negotiations before November 24 would be ideal for resolving the ongoing political standoff.

However, they warned that any use of force by the government against protesters would only escalate the conflict, creating further instability and harming all parties involved.

Political analyst Dr Mujeeb Afzal emphasized that Imran Khan must focus on resolving his legal battles and rebuilding his political standing, a process that would likely require approval from the establishment. He dismissed the possibility of a violent long march resembling the events of May 9, stating that such incidents will not be allowed to recur.

Dr Afzal also noted that PTI’s failure to achieve its objectives during the Shahid crisis, despite mobilizing a large crowd, remains a critical lesson for the party. He observed that the same level of public support is no longer available to PTI, which could impact its ability to exert pressure effectively.

Will the Government Be Able to Stop the Long March?

PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry believes that if the party succeeds in mobilizing over 40,000 supporters—and he claims they can rally even more—it will be nearly impossible for the government to stop the long march. 

He argued that preventing PTI from exercising its democratic right to protest would not be in the country’s best interest. Chaudhry also criticized any attempts by the government to label protesters as terrorists, reminding that they are, ultimately, citizens of Pakistan.

Dr Mujeeb Afzal highlighted that the success or failure of the long march hinges on PTI’s ability to bring a substantial number of people to the streets, as this will be a key indicator of the party’s strength.

While PTI has so far struggled to mobilize such large numbers, Afzal suggested that party workers may prolong the protest, creating public inconvenience to pressure the government further.

Who Will Lose in the Protest?

Dr. Salma Malik, Director of External Affairs at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Quaid-e-Azam University Islamabad, highlighted the adverse effects of protests, whether political or religious. 

She noted that such demonstrations often end up harming the common man the most. Reflecting on past incidents, Dr Malik pointed out that religious institutions were sometimes facilitated by influential stakeholders in the government, enabling them to effectively paralyze cities.

This approach, she argued, has become normalized across the country, as seen in incidents like the attack on the Supreme Court and the blockade of D-Chowk.

Dr Malik underscored the broader implications of such protests and sit-ins, which, beyond their human cost, significantly impact Pakistan’s reputation and economy. She explained that blocking key junctions in the twin cities and cordoning off entire areas restricts movement, shuts down markets and businesses, and directly affects both citizens and the national economy.

While recognizing political protest as an essential aspect of democracy, Dr Malik stressed the need to ensure that protests remain peaceful.

She also emphasized the importance of avoiding the suppression or restriction of such demonstrations, advocating for a balance between democratic rights and maintaining public order.

Shazia Mehboob is a PhD scholar and a visiting faculty member. She is also a freelance journalist and the founder of The PenPK.com. You can follow her on Twitter @thepenpk.