Iran’s Change of Policy Direction: A Victory or Capitualtion?

Saleem Raza

Bradford: As the world focuses on the ongoing conflict in Gaza, where Palestinian resilience against Israeli occupation has captured global attention, another critical front in the Middle East the Syrian battleground is a fundamental shift in dynamics that could reshape regional geopolitics.

Iran’s unexpected withdrawal from active intervention in Syria has sparked debate among analysts about whether this move represents a tactical retreat or a strategic victory.

The situation in Syria, deeply interconnected with the broader struggle for Palestinian freedom and Hezbollah’s resistance against Israel, offers valuable insights into Iran’s policies, their regional implications, and parallels with other global crises, including Pakistan’s current challenges.

Israel’s longstanding strategy to neutralize Palestinian resistance has included targeting its primary supporter, Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s operational strength, however, is closely linked to Iranian support and the logistical supply chain through Syria.

Recognising this, Israel and its allies devised a multi-pronged plan to weaken Hezbollah by engaging it on multiple fronts, thereby making it more vulnerable to a decisive Israeli assault.

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Part of this strategy involved supporting groups like Tahrir al-Sham to destabilize the Syrian government, divert Hezbollah’s focus, and drain its resources. The ultimate goal was to render Gaza defenceless, facilitating Israel’s expansionist ambitions such as the “Greater Israel” project.

However, this intricate strategy faced an unexpected obstacle when Iran re-evaluated its role in Syria and shifted its approach to safeguard both Hezbollah and the Palestinian cause.

Under the guidance of Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s decision to reduce direct involvement in Syria was a calculated maneuver aimed at achieving several objectives:

• Maintaining Focus on Gaza: By avoiding a prolonged conflict in Syria, Iran ensured global attention remained on Gaza and the Palestinian struggle.
• Preserving Hezbollah’s Strength: The retreat prevented Hezbollah from becoming overstretched, preserving its manpower, resources, and strategic position.
• Negotiating Stability: Engaging with Syrian opposition groups reduced the risk of internal chaos, securing key religious sites and Shiite communities.
• Enhancing Military Capabilities: Iran equipped Hezbollah with advanced weapons technology, enabling it to sustain resistance independently, much like the Houthi movement in Yemen.

Iran’s strategic manoeuvring in Syria offers important lessons for Pakistan as it navigates its own political and social turmoil.

Just as Syria’s fragmentation was exploited to weaken its resistance, Pakistan must prioritize national unity to counter external influences that seek to destabilise its democracy. Iran’s ability to negotiate with adversaries while protecting core interests underscores the importance of diplomacy.

Pakistan must leverage this approach to address internal divisions and external pressures. Iran’s support for self-reliant resistance movements like Hezbollah highlights the importance of fostering grassroots resilience. Pakistan’s youth-led movements and activism hold similar potential for driving meaningful change.

Iran’s decision cements its role as a central force in the Middle Eastern resistance, maintaining its influence over Hezbollah and Hamas while positioning itself as a protector of Palestine.

This shift could attract heightened scrutiny from the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, which may perceive Iran’s influence as more consolidated. Freed from direct Syrian engagements, Iran can focus on strengthening its domestic policies and bolstering support for proxy groups.

The reduced Iranian presence could lead to further internal fragmentation, particularly as local rebel groups seek to exploit the vacuum.

The Assad government may need to rely more heavily on Russian support and explore negotiations with opposition factions. Without sustained Iranian backing, Syria faces exacerbated instability, economic collapse, and a deepening humanitarian crisis.

Israel will continue to view Hezbollah and Iran as existential threats, intensifying military operations in Gaza and Syria.

Balancing its expansionist ambitions with the growing polarization over Palestinian rights may strain Israel’s relations with regional powers.

Iran’s shift complicates U.S. strategies aimed at isolating Iranian forces. The U.S. may need to recalibrate its approach to Syria and Palestine, risking greater instability in both regions. The resilience of Iranian-backed groups could diminish the efficacy of U.S.-supported proxy wars.

Turkey’s regional becomes more intriguing. It’s ambitions  may drive it to balance its NATO obligations with closer ties to Russia and Iran. With Iran’s reduced engagement in Syria, Turkey may need to recalibrate its support for opposition groups to maintain its influence.

Iran’s strategic withdrawal from Syria has triggered a cascade of geopolitical shifts across the Middle East. While some view this as a reduction in Iranian influence, a broader perspective reveals a masterstroke of long-term strategy.

By prioritizing the Palestinian struggle and preserving Hezbollah’s strength, Iran has ensured its enduring role as a key player in regional resistance.

For Pakistan, Iran’s actions offer valuable lessons in resilience, unity, and strategic foresight. Navigating its own challenges will require Pakistan to draw on these lessons, ensuring it strengthens its sovereignty while fostering inclusivity and democratic values.

Just as Syria seeks light amid the ashes of war, Pakistan stands at a pivotal crossroads, its destiny shaped by the courage and wisdom of its people.

All information and facts provided are the sole responsibility of the writer.

The author, a Pakistan-born creative based in Bradford, UK, is a versatile talent celebrated as a designer, artist, and poet. They hold a postgraduate degree in fashion design from London, showcasing their expertise in both artistic and academic pursuits.