India’s Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty: A Strategic Shift or Reactionary Move?
Ishtiaq Ahmed
Islamabad: In the wake of a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, India was quick to hold Pakistan responsible. What followed was a dramatic and unprecedented response: India announced the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, a historic agreement signed in 1960 by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru of India and President Ayub Khan of Pakistan to regulate the distribution and use of river waters between the two countries.
For over six decades, the treaty endured even during two major wars and countless border skirmishes. Notably, water sharing was always kept separate from broader security disputes. So, why did India decide to suspend this longstanding treaty now? Is this a reactive move, or is there a deeper strategic motive?
India is facing a growing and multifaceted water crisis, driven by several factors: Rapid urbanisation and industrial growth, Unsustainable agricultural practices, Widespread water pollution, Climate change and erratic rainfall, Corruption and water mismanagement, and deficient infrastructure, to mention a few pressing concerns
As a result, millions of people across the country lack access to safe water. Pollution from industries, agriculture, and untreated sewage has contaminated major rivers and groundwater sources, making them unfit for human use.
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Agriculture, which consumes the majority of India’s freshwater, continues to rely on inefficient irrigation methods, leading to massive water wastage. Combined with infrastructure gaps such as insufficient reservoirs, outdated canals, and a lack of treatment facilities. The situation is dire. Water shortages are increasingly affecting public health, food production, and industrial growth, and even pose a risk of social unrest. Inevitably, India wants to maximise the use of its water from its two principal rivers and off shoots.
Therefore, against this backdrop the issue of transboundary rivers has increased in importance and magnitude. Although India is home to over 400 rivers, two major transboundary rivers , the Indus and the Brahmaputra play a crucial role in its water security.
The Indus river originates from Mount Kailash in Tibet. It flows northwest through Indian-administered Ladakh, passes through Pakistan-administered Gilgit-Baltistan, and continues south to the Arabian Sea near Karachi. This river system is central to the Indus Water Treaty.
The Brahmaputra river on the other hand known as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet and Siang in Arunachal Pradesh, it flows from China into India. Like the Indus, its origins lie in Chinese-controlled territory, which adds a complex geopolitical dimension.
India is increasingly concerned about the upstream control China has over these vital rivers. During some recent border clashes, China reportedly blocked the flow of the Galwan River , a move that has raised fears of similar actions affecting other rivers during times of conflict. For India, such scenarios represent serious threats to water security.
India’s apprehensions are not limited to China alone. It is also wary of the deep and growing relationship between Pakistan and China, which includes massive economic investments, military cooperation, and strategic partnerships. China is seen as Pakistan’s closest ally in the region , a superpower counterbalancing India’s own alliances with countries like the United States and Russia.
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In this context, India may be using the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty as a leverage, a strategic signal to both Pakistan and China. Given that the treaty was crafted under the supervision of the World Bank and with UN backing, such a move also signals India’s readiness to challenge established norms if its core interests are placed at a risk.
Kashmir is not just a territorial or ideological dispute. It is also a crucial source of water for both India and Pakistan. Many key rivers, including the Indus and its tributaries, originate in the Himalayan region of Kashmir. This makes the territory strategically indispensable for both nations.
For India, control over Kashmir ensures access to vital water resources. For Pakistan, Kashmir is equally essential for the same reason. Some analysts believe that an independent Kashmir could undermine India’s control over these rivers and reduce its leverage in the region.
Conclusion: More Than Meets the Eye
India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty cannot be viewed in isolation. While the official reason may point to retaliation against a terrorist attack, the underlying causes appear to be more strategic and long-term in nature. Faced with a looming water crisis, growing insecurity about upstream control by China, and deepening Pakistan-China ties, India is rethinking its geopolitical tools and water may be one of its most powerful levers.
In this context, the treaty suspension is not merely a response, but potentially a strategic recalibration, one that reflects India’s rising urgency over water scarcity, national security, and regional influence.
Food for thought: Could water — not territory, not religion, not politics — become the central axis of future conflict in South Asia? Was this what was meant by the founding fathers of Pakistan referred as the ‘ Jugular Vein’ of the country?
The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.
The author is a British citizen of Pakistani origin with a keen interest in Pakistani and international affairs.
This needless posturing need to stop. Both countries politicians need to grow up. We know from comments and sentiments expessed by both countries that citizens do not want war but a peaceful solutions.
However, water as a tool for hammering neighbours seems extremely unethical.
Comment on India’s Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty:
India’s abrupt suspension of the Indus Water Treaty marks a deeply irresponsible and dangerous escalation—one that goes far beyond its stated pretext of a terrorist attack in Pahalgam. This is not a reactive diplomatic measure, but rather a calculated geopolitical maneuver, driven by India’s intensifying internal water crisis and its shifting strategic calculus in the face of rising Chinese influence and Sino-Pak relations.
The Indus Waters Treaty was not merely a bilateral accord—it was one of the most enduring symbols of cooperation amidst conflict, surviving wars and decades of hostility. Its sudden abrogation signals not strength, but desperation. It is a loud admission of India’s chronic mismanagement of its own water systems: from toxic rivers and failed irrigation practices to rapidly dwindling aquifers and administrative negligence.
By weaponizing water—essential to life and agriculture—India is not punishing a state; it is threatening the ecological security and humanitarian stability of over 240 million people downstream in Pakistan. It is also testing international patience, risking violations of international water law, and undermining the World Bank-mediated framework, which had once made the treaty a model for peaceful resource sharing.
Moreover, the decision dangerously politicizes Kashmir’s ecology, confirming what Pakistan has long warned: that India’s interest in Kashmir is not just territorial or nationalist—it is hydrological. If water is indeed the ‘jugular vein’ of Pakistan, then this move is akin to strangulation through coercive diplomacy.
This is a wake-up call for the international community. Weaponizing water in the 21st century, in a region already volatile with nuclear arms and unresolved conflicts, is not just provocative—it is perilous. If there is any lesson history offers, it is that when vital resources become tools of pressure, peace becomes the first casualty.
Let us not forget: India’s move is not just a breach of a treaty—it is the breach of trust, humanity, and responsibility. The world must not remain silent.