IK’s arrest explained!

Ishtiaq Ahmed

Imran Khan’s opponents have been planning and plotting for a while to take him out of the equation but things came to fore by his ill-advised and impertinent visit to Russia on the eve of Ukraine war. This truly incensed America and NATO allies.

America could not strategically afford Pakistan falling into the lap of Russia. Hence, IK had to go. Conveniently, they found ready-made allies in PDM and the Pakistan’s army establishment with General (retd) Bajwa at the helm. Both the PDM and the army establishment ‘wanted IK to be removed for their objectives’.

Therefore, a three way plot was hatched to take Imran out of the political equation. In hindsight, it seems plausible that the vote of no-confidence in PTI’s government in 2022 was the start of this protracted strategy. The judicial family, politically coerced and compromised, was mobilised to contribute to the plan which they readily obliged while IK’s imprudent and inconsistent turns and twitches did not help his cause.

With the dislodging of Imran Khan from the government greatly helped by his imprudent last minute walkout, it was hoped that he will gradually slide into the political oblivion but this was not to be the case. In fact, his public popularity continued to increase helped by the mounting economic crisis and the spiraling costs of basic life essentials.

IK’s growing public standing could not be stomached by all his three political foes. It is highly plausible that the assassination attempt on his life during the long March was against this political turmoil, however, nothing can be of certain. It is also possible that the assassination had dual objectives removing him completely or failing this, frightening him into silence. It seems neither of these aims were achieved. In fact, IK’s popularity graph continued to rise.

The next move was to get the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to delay the impending elections and instigate the disqualification of IK but the importune intervention of the supreme courts muddied the waters and the matter remained suspended without a clear cut outcome.

Subsequently, various attempts were made by his opponents to bring IK into line or at least get him to lower the tone of his vitriolic attacks on the army establishment and the Americans. It is apparent that neither of these attempts succeeded in getting IK to hold back.

Hence, the plot to isolate IK had to be quickly moved forward which seemingly involved his arrest and the disintegration of PTI. Both aspects of this dark strategy are being acted out presently with vengeance.

IK has been arrested along with the other senior leaders of PTI. Interestingly, Fawad Chaudhry has been spared with the timely intervention of the court. It is possible that this is also part of the plan to create discord and distrust within the PTI ranks which it is hoped will spur divisions within the party, ultimately leading to its disintegration and political demise.

The authorities very well knew that the arrest of IK will provoke wide spread protests and even repeated incidents of violence. This would provide the pretext to make wholesale arrests and introduce other draconian measures to frighten off the PTI supporters into silence. This is exactly what is transpiring.

It seems a calculated course of action by the PDM government and the army establishment. For them the stakes are enormously high and, hence, relatively an all small price to pay to achieve long term objectives of isolating IK/ PTI and maintaining the overall control.

In the background, America directly and through IMF has been exerting enormous pressure on the PDM and the army establishment to stay in line. The suspension of IMF aid of over six billion dollars in November 2022 which remains suspended is very much part of the plan to hold the PDM government and the army establishment on the course.

It is sad to see the unfolding of violence following the arrest of IK. The destruction of public property can’t be condoned and justified under any circumstances. The tragedy is that those culprits actually responsible for the current state of affairs will get away scotch free and the beleaguered citizens of Pakistan will make pay the price.

The author is a British citizen of Pakistani origin with a keen interest in Pakistani and international affairs.