How Will Harris’s Rising Favorability Impact 2024 Election?

News Desk
New York: Former US President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris are tied in a pair of recent polls, although Harris maintains a narrow lead in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania.

According to new data from The New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer, both Trump and Harris have the support of 47% of likely voters nationwide.

However, in Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump by 4 points, 50% to 46%. This state, where Democratic and Republican voters are nearly equal in number, plays a critical role in determining the outcome of U.S. presidential elections.

The polling was conducted just before a second apparent assassination attempt on Trump last Sunday. Among registered voters nationwide, Trump holds a slight edge over Harris, 47% to 46%.

These results remain largely unchanged from a previous poll conducted a week earlier, which showed Trump leading 48% to 46%.

In late July, following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, the polls similarly showed Trump ahead of Harris, 48% to 46% among registered voters. All results are within the margin of error.

The latest poll of likely voters shows Harris with strong support from women, who back her 53% to Trump’s 41%. She also holds a significant lead among voters aged 18-29, with 56% support compared to Trump’s 33%, and enjoys overwhelming support from Black voters at 77%, while Trump receives 14%.

Trump, on the other hand, leads among men, with 52% supporting him compared to Harris’s 39%. Among voters aged 65 and older, Trump has 50% support, while Harris has 44%. Trump also commands 53% of the white vote, while Harris garners 43%.

In Pennsylvania, Harris’s support mirrors her national demographic backing, with 57% of women, 61% of young voters aged 18-29, and 82% of Black voters favoring her. Trump, however, leads among men in the state with 53% support and 51% among white voters. Harris edges out Trump among seniors in Pennsylvania, leading 50% to 47%.

Since early July, Harris’s favorability ratings have improved in Pennsylvania, with 51% of voters viewing her favorably, up from 42%. Nationally, 48% of likely voters hold a favorable opinion of the vice president.

Trump’s national favorability ratings have also risen, with 47% viewing him positively—an increase since he last led Biden in the polls earlier this year.

In The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) national polling average, Harris holds a 3.6-point lead, with 49.7% of support compared to Trump’s 46.1%. In Pennsylvania, she maintains a slim 1-point lead over Trump, 48.8% to 47.8%, according to the DDHQ polling index.

The poll, conducted between Sept. 11-16, included interviews with 2,437 likely voters nationwide and 1,082 voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is 3 percentage points for the national poll and 3.8 points for the Pennsylvania poll.