Five Takeaways From France’s Pivotal Election

AFP/APP

Paris: The far-right National Rally (RN) garnered 33 percent of the vote, compared to 28 percent for the left-wing New Popular Front alliance, and over 20 percent for Macron’s centrist camp, according to preliminary results.

Still, most projections by polling organizations show Marine Le Pen’s party falling short of the absolute majority that would enable it to form a government and make her 28-year-old protege Jordan Bardella prime minister.

Bardella has said he will only be prime minister if his party obtains an outright majority. The RN “looks likely to fall short of an overall majority in the second round,” said risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, “although all forecasts for the second round are hazardous.”

Macron Weakened

But whatever the outcome on July 7, analysts say Macron’s gamble of calling for a snap election has backfired, leaving him weakened at home and on the international stage for the last three years of his presidency.

He came to power in 2017 on pledges to prevent the march of the far right. He now faces the risk of seeing his legacy undone and being remembered as someone who ushered the far right into power for the first time since the Nazi occupation of France in World War II. 

“The consequences for him will be lethal. He’s losing everything,” said Vincent Martigny, professor of political science at Nice University. The French media was equally merciless.

“The head of state has thrown France under the bus,” said the left-leaning Liberation in an editorial. The right-wing Le Figaro in its editorial lamented a “disaster.”

High Turnout Prompts Shake-Up

With the French facing their most polarizing choices in recent history, turnout spiked to 66.7 percent. The final turnout in the last legislative elections in 2022 was just 47.5 percent.

Macron said the high turnout in the first round spoke of “the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation.”

 But both the far right and the left-wing alliance say the unusually strong participation speaks of French people’s yearning for change, given that the high participation does not appear to have helped the government.

Macron’s centrist coalition will potentially retain only a third of the seats his camp enjoyed only three weeks ago, said Celia Belin, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

“Macron did not rise to his 2017 and 2022 promise that he will be a bulwark against the far right,” she said.

Tactical Voting Looms

With a total of 76 candidates elected to the 577-member National Assembly in the first round of voting, the second round will see a three-way or two-way run-off in the remaining seats where no one won half the vote. Everything now hinges on various agreements. 

Macron’s camp and the New Popular Front left-wing alliance are hoping that tactical voting will help block the far right’s path to power.

On Sunday night, Macron called for a “broad” alliance against the far right but even his own camp is far from united amid controversy over France Unbowed (LFI), which is part of the left-wing alliance.

Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire called on French people to vote for leftist candidates but not those from LFI, due to its leader Jean-Luc Melenchon’s “positions against the French nation.”

Fears of Chaos

The most likely outcome of the snap election is a year of protracted deadlock, political instability, and chaos. There can be no new election for the next 12 months. “If the RN has a relative majority, how do we govern?” said a member of Macron’s camp. 

Macron might be hoping to put together a broad coalition that would include the conservative Republicans and politicians on the left, at least some Socialists. Anne Levade, an expert in public law, said a lot would depend on the New Popular Front.

“Each of the players will be responsible for deciding whether the country becomes ungovernable or whether an agreement is possible.”