Elections With Wavering Outcome

Mohammad Ajeeb
London: On the political horizon of Pakistan, the temptation to dwell on the anticipated general elections in November/December of this year still exists. The date for dissolution of national parliament and formation of the interim government has been announced.
It is interesting to observe the emergence of two new political parties out of the PTI. After 18 months of scorning and maligning the military establishment, the PTI leadership on 9th of May, after the arrest of its leader, decided to openly confront the most powerful institution of the country allegedly by targeting some important installations of the armed forces.

In the history of the country, it was the first daring attempt of PTI to surpass the red line with the intention of humiliating the military establishment. But it miserably failed in its desired aim.
The consequences of the unprecedented use of mob violence to enter strictly prohibited military sites for civilians were underestimated by the PTI leaders. These ugly violent scenes were followed by mass arrests of the alleged perpetrators.

Following this, many of the party’s top leaders including elected members of the national and provincial assemblies deserted the party mainly to the newly formed parties. The PTI now is in the doldrums and in disarray. It is dispirited, fragmented, and disillusioned. Those who still remain loyal to IK have not much choice. The ‘No Entry’ sign for them can contribute to their further isolation and hence more difficulties in winning their seats. The PTI is not defunct but the process of emasculation of its electoral influence is continuing.
Imran Khan is facing numerous cases in different courts. He is not going to be forgotten and forgiven. However, his personal support is still intact, particularly among the majority of young urban male and female voters, this is causing some political consternation amongst the political leadership of the incumbent caretaker government.
Pakistan’s first direct election was held in 1970 which is regarded by the majority of observers and analysts as the most transparent, free and fair. However, even the transparency and fairness of the elections failed to bring political stability to the two wings of the country, East and West Pakistan. The separation of East Pakistan to become Bangladesh was the by-product of this election. Unfortunately, all other elections that ensued since were managed and grossly rigged. Therefore, there is no cast-iron guarantee that the forthcoming elections will be any different.
The recent press release of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) gives the total number of registered voters to be over 125 million. It is significant to note that 44 percent of the eligible voters are young men and women, a huge electoral resource that can be decisive for the outcome of the next elections.
It will be pretentious and misleading to deny the fact that the substantial majority of young voters, particularly, in the urban areas will support PTI if they have candidates of their choice. In the absence of PTI candidates, they may stay home or support an independent candidate. In the rural settings of the country, their vote may be divided in supporting different parties.
The other two major contestants are PML-N and PPP. Both are long-established and seem to be favoured by the establishment. But their performance as the coalition government for the last 18 months is dismal.
Also IK’s constant maligning of the top leadership of these parties with spiteful and toxic allegations  has caused irreparable damage to their personal image and reputation. Consequently, they are perceived to be the most corrupt and inapt bunch of politicians and who can be no longer be trusted to govern. Hence the elections alone are not going to be panacea.
Therefore, in the light of the current economic and political scenario fraught with so many serious and intractable issues facing the country, the elections look like an exercise of papering over deep-seated problems facing the nation. All the available evidence suggests that if and when elections are held these may be managed to exclude certain individuals in the process.
Thus the likely outcome may entail a collection of individuals representing various political parties or independents who will be willing to toe the line of their benefactors.
Thus the shape and complexion of next government can be hotchpotch of willing partners who would be willing to compromise on the sovereignty of Parliament and Constitution. Therefore, all the signs point to the next government being of limited capability which does not auger well for the future stability and prosperity of the country.
Additionally, Pakistan can’t afford not to engage in the political process. Nearly, half of its population are young and ambitious and a great asset to be tapped and positively directed to nation building efforts. The state seems incapable of controlling and managing the rapidly growing frustration of the people, particularly youth, who have been and still are victims of corrupt and mismanaged governments and are now desperate to see genuine change designed to bring about end to extreme poverty and promote social justice for all.
In the next five years, unfortunately, Pakistan must remain vigilant for its continued political, social and economic instability and allow and encourage democracy to flourish and develop in the true meaning and spirit.

The author is former Lord Mayor of Bradford UK.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.