COP29 Opens with Trump Climate Withdrawal Looming

AFP/APP

Baku: The COP29 climate talks opened Monday in Azerbaijan, amid concerns over the re-election of Donald Trump, who has pledged to reverse the United States’ carbon-cutting commitments.

Countries have gathered in Baku for the main United Nations forum for climate diplomacy as new warnings emerge that 2024 is on track to break temperature records, increasing the urgency of the debate on climate funding. 

However, Trump’s return to the political scene casts a shadow over the discussions, with fears that an imminent US exit from the landmark Paris Agreement could reduce ambition at the negotiating table.

“We cannot afford to let the momentum for global action on climate change be derailed,” said Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s special envoy for climate change and environment. 

“This is a shared problem that will not solve itself without international cooperation, and we will continue to make that case to the incoming president of one of the world’s largest polluters.”

Outgoing President Joe Biden is notably absent, as are many other leaders who traditionally attend COP talks to lend weight to the proceedings. 

Only a handful of leaders from the Group of 20, whose countries account for nearly 80 percent of global emissions, are present. Afghanistan is sending a delegation for the first time since the Taliban took power, though they will have observer status.

Diplomats insist that the absences, and Trump’s potential withdrawal, will not detract from the serious work ahead, particularly the negotiation of a new climate funding target for developing countries.

Negotiators aim to increase the current $100 billion-a-year target to help developing nations address worsening climate impacts and transition their economies away from fossil fuels.

‘It’s Hard’

“It’s hard. It involves money. When it comes to money, everybody shows their true colours,” said Adonia Ayebare, the Ugandan chair of a bloc of over 100 mostly developing countries and China, speaking on Sunday. 

Trump, who has frequently referred to climate change as a “hoax,” has pledged to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement.

However, Ayebare dismissed the potential consequences of a US exit, pointing out that Trump had already taken Washington out of the Paris Agreement during his first term.

“This has happened before, we will find a way of realigning.”

Developing countries are pushing for trillions of dollars in climate funding, insisting that most of it should be offered as grants rather than loans.

They warn that without the necessary funding, they will struggle to update their climate goals, which must be submitted by early next year.

“Bring some money to the table so that you show your leadership,” said Evans Njewa, chair of the LDC Climate Group, whose members are home to 1.1 billion people.

In contrast, developed countries contributing to the fund want to see the donor pool expanded to include other wealthy nations and major emitters like China and the Gulf states.

A Chinese official emphasized during a closed-door session that the talks should not attempt to “renegotiate” existing agreements. Liang Pei, from China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment, urged negotiators to focus on “the climate crisis collectively, constructively.”

‘Worth It’

The talks are taking place amid fresh warnings that the world is far off track in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. 

The climate deal aims to limit global warming to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, with a target of limiting it to 1.5°C.

However, 2024 is projected to surpass this threshold, according to the European Union climate monitor.

While this would not immediately breach the Paris Agreement, as it measures temperatures over decades, it underscores the need for more ambitious climate action. Earlier this year, the UN warned that the world is on track for a catastrophic 3.1°C rise in global temperatures this century based on current actions.

“Everyone knows that these negotiations will not be easy,” said Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. “But they are worth it: each tenth of a degree of warming avoided means fewer crises, less suffering, less displacement.”

More than 51,000 participants are expected at the talks, which will run from November 11-22. For the second year in a row, the talks are being hosted by a country heavily reliant on fossil fuels, following last year’s summit in the United Arab Emirates.

Azerbaijan has also faced criticism for stifling dissent, persecuting political opponents, detaining activists, and restricting independent media.